ORANGE CRUSH: the latest Ekos Poll!!!!

[whosinpower]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_25_2011.pdf

National federal vote intention
(committed voters only):
¤ 34.4% CPC
¤ 24.0% LPC
¤28.4% NDP
¤ 6.3% Green
¤6.2% BQ
¤ 0.8% other

the NDP are in within 6 points of the Conservatives!?!

Given that the conservatives, liberals, and Bloc are all now actively attacking Layton can mean only one thing - the surge is real....and their internal polling is far worse.

snip - With the current splits, these levels of support would produce 131 Conservative seats but the NDP would have 100 seats while the Liberals would hold 62. Together, the NDP and Liberal Party would have a majority and 31 more seats than the Conservatives, as well as nearly 20 more points in popular vote. It is hard to imagine how these totals would not produce the once unimaginable outcome of a Jack Layton led coalition government deposing Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.

[CHIMO]

1. ‘Terra incognita’: Poll projects 100 seats for surging NDP

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/terra-incognita-poll-projects-100-seats-for-surging-ndp/article1998361/

This is a 9% drop in the Conservatives power. If we can't get 20% I will take the 9%.

If this poll should hold true on May 2 then we should see another split between the Reform and the PC's.

Hope it comes to pass.

[tuvor]

2. CBC: Reality Check: Polling and 'the NDP surge'

...

In recent months, several prominent Canadian pollsters have been raising some pretty fundamental questions about their industry.

The most provocative critic has been Allan Gregg, chairman of Harris-Decima, which provides political polling for the Canadian Press. He is also a regular member of The National's At Issue panel on CBC TV.

Gregg has been doing political polling since the 1970s and in an interview with the Canadian Press he said that "there's broad consensus among pollsters that proliferating political polls suffer from a combination of methodological problems, commercial pressures and an unhealthy relationship with the media.

"The dirty little secret of the polling business," he went on, "is that our ability to yield results accurately from samples that reflect the total population has probably never been worse in the 30 to 35 years that the discipline has been active in Canada."

...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/04/polling-and-the-ndp-surge.html

[CHIMO]

3. Quite True

The numbers give the talking heads something to talk about.

What I don't know in these polls is what the response rate is? How many calls were made and how many actually answered their questions? Do the results represent those who vote? How do they obtain the sample?

But the trend seems to give the undecided a reason to join the crowd. At least this poll shows that Harper can be whacked.

[whosinpower]

4. If anything

It will hopefully get out the vote. And in a democratic society - that is a good thing. As an aside - my hubbie went to the advance polling as he will be away on Election Day.....long long line. If that is any indication - there should be a bigger turnout this go round.

I hope everyone votes. When Duceppe arrogently told Layton that at least he is honest with voters that he will never be prime minister and why couldn't Layton.....hehehe....it would be KARMA if Layton was the official opposition leader, Harper in a minority situation and Ignatieff deciding whether HE would accede to a coalition with LAYTON in charge....hohohohoho...hehehe....

We all know Canadians have a razor sharp sense of humour.....

[Very_Boring_Name]

5. When I voted in 2008 it was DEAD

I lived in a downtown metro area, went in at around 3 pm, I was the ONLY person there. High turnout always makes me happy, no matter which party ends up winning. I'm really disgusted with the whole "I'm sick of elections!!!" attitude that so many people here have, when you have people dying in Libya for this right.

[craigmatic]

6. Great news I wish we got more Canadian news here. When is election day?

[Metric System]

7. Next Monday, May 2nd.

[Metric System]

8. I could definitely live with this result. If the NDP can take on the Cons then more power to them.

And I say this as someone who usually votes Liberal (including today at the advance poll).

[IntravenousDemilo]

9. I was a poll clerk this year at the advance polls.

We had a really big turnout, and among them were a lot of young, first-time voters. Friday we had 174 voters, Saturday 172, and Monday 229. It's said that large turnouts at advance polls most frequently benefit whichever party has momentum at the time.