I thought that it would be best to have this article as the first post down here in the UK forum in 2005. Make of this what you will.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,6903,1382134,00.htmlI am as certain as anyone that Tony Blair will be returned to Downing Street for a third term, leaving Michael Howard in the dust with some of the key shadow cabinet colleagues missing. (David Davis, Oliver Letwin, Tim Collins and Theresa Mayhave majorities of less than 3,500.) I also feel sure that however much the media relish the straight fight between Blair and Howard, the real contest will not be between Labour and the Conservatives, but the two opposition parties.
All this leaves the man who took us to war on a trunkload of lies looking remarkably untroubled. During the last four years, he has rendered his own party, the opposition, parliament and even his cabinet pretty much impotent. He has sucked the energy out of British politics and placed it at his own disposal. A large majority means he will become more dominant in the life of the nation than any Prime Minister since Churchill during the war. Not even Margaret Thatcher had quite such unfettered control.
This centralised power exercised by the Prime Minister and a small, inner circle is inimical to the traditions of collegiate British democracy. It is worrying in itself but also because it creates a template for all future Prime Ministers. Were Gordon Brown to succeed in the much advertised putsch after a big Labour majority was returned, it seems unlikely that he would seek to give parliament back some of its power. He is also a man used to working in a tight group, spears and shields pointing up and outwards.
There is a sense that Blair and his supporters have only one political conviction and that is their unique entitlement to power. There is also a shallowness, even vacuity, in so much that is proposed, not least the 40 bills planned for a third term. Many of these will simply be enhanced spin or further meddling with what should be left to individual choice, but they are being presented as another great modernising programme. If these bills were so critical to our national life, one wonders why they haven't been introduced to parliament in the last eight years. The suggestion that Labour is creating work for itself cannot be entirely ruled out.