What do you think the Labour majority will be in the new Parliament?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

Poll question: What do you think the Labour majority will be in the new Parliament?

Barring some sort of huge event, it looks like New Labour is on course to walk the next election. But, what do you think the next Parliament is going to look like in terms of the Labour majority?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. "Other": 330 seats gives an outright majority of 1 seat.

Labour: 368
Conservative: 157
Liberal Democrat: 75
(Scotch/Welsh Nationalists/Ulster Unionists, etc)
(Socialists/Greens)
Others: 50

(*These are approximations)

[gbarford]

2. Tories will do a bit better than that sadly I think

Heh, I'd like to see the Tories have a net reduction in seats, but I think they are likely to gain seats in this election (instead of the pathetic net gain +1 in 2001).

The Tories will benefit from "tactical unwind", that is, most Lib Dem and other party voters will no longer vote Labour to keep the Tories out ("tactical voting"), and that could hand the Tories around 10-20 extra seats by default, plus they are almost certain to take back some seats that were regarded before 1997 to be natural Tory territory.

Lib Dems will do well in certain areas, and probably will make a good net gain of seats, but no massive breakthrough.

I think the Tories could push beyond 200 seats, which is where a proper opposition party should be, and any big increase in seats for the Lib Dems, plus any nationalist gains in Scotland and Wales could see a potential for a hung parliament.

[non sociopath skin]

3. I think their Aussie Guru Lynton Crosby's target is realistic ....

... if the Tories don't gain 30-40 seats, they've no business being in business.

Of course (and you heard it first on Radio Skin) this will owe as much to tactical voting for the LibDems et al. as to "positive" votes for the Party of the Night.

Bliar deserves it. Dunno whether the rest of us do, though ...

The Skin

[T_i_B]

4. At a conservative estimate

I'd say a 100 seat majority.

The way I see it, 180 seat majorities are bad news, no matter who is in power.

[D-Notice]

5. I chose 50-99

I'd prefer Labour to be a minority with the Lib Dems in a coalition as a way of punishing our Dear Leader for the past few yrs...

Although knowning Tony he'd rather be in coalition with the Tories... :-(

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. I still see a Labour majority around the 130-150 mark

The Tories are getting worser and more unelectable all the time. Lib Dems might gain a few more seats though, but not enough to challenge for 2nd place yet.

[non sociopath skin]

7. No. The LibDems will need to move even further to the right ....

... if they wish to challenge the Party of the Night for second place.

Fortunately, they appear to be working on it ...

The Skin

[LSdemocrat]

8. I can't see the Tories gaining more than a handful of seats

The Tories really have a penchant for picking terrible party leaders.

The big wildcard is how much will the Lib Dems gain and will those gains translate into seats in parliament.

[non sociopath skin]

10. And, of course, seats for whom.

As I've pointed out before, in the many seats which are Labour/Tory marginals with the LibDems in third place, the most likely outcome of Labour voters switching to the LibDems will be a Tory gain.

If nothing else, do your homework guys. The Skin's increasingly potent nightmare is that, in - rightfully - seeking to punish Bliar, voters will push this country even further to the right.

The Skin

[mr blur]

9. Undeserved. (n/t)