SNP wanting best of both worlds, or having to face reality?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

SNP plan to influence Westminster

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond is to outline details of his plan for the SNP to wield greater influence at Westminster.

(snip)

Mr Salmond has set a target for the party to boost its tally of MPs from seven to at least 20. The SNP leader said that could mean the nationalists holding the balance of power at Westminster in a hung parliament situation, when it came to reserved issues which affect Scotland.

(snip)

Mr Salmond believes he can extract more money for Scotland from the treasury by promising his MPs' support on an issue-by-issue basis to whichever party forms the next Westminster government.

The nationalists said that in the event of an emergency UK Budget after the election, the so-called "block" of increased SNP MPs could secure funding to help Scotland out of the recession.

More: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8311801.stm

So instead of talking about referenda and separatism, the SNP are talking about a bigger Westminster grant for Scotland.

The reality being that the costs of splitting the Union are unwilling and unable to be met by a Scottish Government. This is for the following reasons:

* The SNP believed a Scottish state could be maintained by an emulation of the Celtic Tiger economy, and this economic model has now imploded
* With no prospect of emulating the de-regulated bubble economy of Ireland, finance capital is less willing to support independence (finance capital being actively courted by the SNP before the recession)
* Tax revenue is drying up due to the recession/depression
* The collapse in oil prices has in turn collapsed expectations about revenue that a Scottish state could earn from oil.

The pragmatism of the SNP reflect the actions of the Bloc Quebecois in the Canadian House of Commons, where the Bloc have propped-up minority Liberal and Tory governments on a case-by-case basis in return for specfic concessions.

[fedsron2us]

1. So support for cuts in England but not in Scotland.

I have a feeling that this might not pan out quite how he hopes.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. Indeed

There's a difficult time ahead for the SNP. While some understandably argue that the Tories getting in power in Westminster would embolden support for the SNP, I don't see it happening that way.

The SNP isn't going to convince big business that independence is a desirable or affordable option at a time when big business is increasingly tied to UK government support.

There's a split in the SNP regarding policy, and it's between the dominant neoliberal wing, and the (formerly-dominant in 1990s) left-republican social democratic wing. Now the neoliberal route to independence appears to be shut-off for perhaps a decade, the left-wing of the party will be emboldened. But it is in a weakened state, and the neoliberal wing in the parliamentary party are unlikely to raise taxes in Scotland for social democratic outcomes. Plus the revenue they'd raise would be questionable, and the SNP don't show any signs of wishing to do away with their good ties with Scottish business by raising taxes on higher earners.

The SSP could have benefited from all this, but as is the norm on the left there was a vanity-split. At present the current SSP and Solidarity (Scotland) splits the left vote between them while adopting near-identical positions.