Patrick Cockburn: Britain's ignorance of Iraq is already apparent

[oldironside]

"Ever since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 senior British officials have gently hinted that what went wrong was the fault of the Americans and, if there is any blame left over, it belongs to Tony Blair. The first day of the Chilcot inquiry suggests, on the contrary, that British mandarins of the day had little more idea of the mechanics of Iraqi politics than the most rabid and jingoistic neo-cons in Washington.

At no time, going by their evidence, did British officials in 2003 realise that the invasion of Iraq meant revolutionary change in the region. It would mean that the Sunni Arabs, who had traditionally ruled the country, would be displaced by the Shia and the Kurds. The Sunni were unlikely to go quietly."

"In Iran some Shia theologians argued at the time that the second coming of the Mehdi might well be at hand, because only divine intervention could have persuaded the Americans to behave so stupidly as to get rid of Iran's main enemies in Afghanistan and Iraq. The coming to power of a Shia-dominated regime in Iraq, the first in the Arab world since the time of Saladin, was bound to enhance Iranian influence over its neighbour."

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-britains-ignorance-of-iraq-is-already-apparent-1826920.html

Priceless. This is what an Oxbridge education does for you.

[TheBigotBasher]

1. Do not blame the mandarins,

David Kelly going for a long country walk showed what happened if you did not play ball. Do not blame the soldiers facing death because they were sent in to an illegal and divisive war, almost no different in many eyes to that of the crusades. Blame the current "Peace Envoy to the Middle East".

[oldironside]

2. Who is...

... uh ... Oxbridge educated.

Look, nobody hates Blair more than I do, and of course he should shoulder the majority of the blame for this, but the Foreign and Commonwealth Office really should have known better. Even if they couldn't stop his rush to war.

[TheBigotBasher]

3. They did

At no time, going by their evidence, did British officials in 2003 realise that the invasion of Iraq meant revolutionary change in the region. It would mean that the Sunni Arabs, who had traditionally ruled the country, would be displaced by the Shia and the Kurds. The Sunni were unlikely to go quietly.

Even Bush Sr knew this.

It was more than obvious and fully understood at the time. What the US Government failed to understand was the complete lack of support their replacement, Ahmad Chalabi had. When they faced that realisation they then understood that they had to put in place an occupying Government. This led to the immediate imposition of Paul Bremer, with a view to handing over to Ahmad Chalabi.

It went downhill from there. In France, decades earlier, similar opposition to an imposed Government became known as La Resistance. Iraqi insurgents were branded terrorists.