The great City exodus may be about to begin.
I have learned that Tullett Prebon, one of the largest independent financial trading firms in London, is offering its employees the chance to relocate to its offices in Switzerland, Bahrain and Singapore as a result of the uncertainty caused by last week's Pre-Budget Report (PBR).
Terry Smith, the City heavyweight who is Tullett Prebon's chief executive, emailed senior managers at the firm on Friday to say that the company's board had taken the decision to help facilitate requests from staff to relocate to other offices "with more certain taxation regimes".
"It is not clear how if at all the Chancellor's announcement yesterday will affect us, but his proposals regarding the way that bonuses are to be treated this financial year, coupled with the explicit refusal to guarantee that similar "one off" taxes will not be imposed next year and in subsequent years, has caused a number of you to once again raise the matter of relocation out of the United Kingdom," the email said.
This is big news - and represents the most potent signal to date of an imminent exodus from the City amid growing Government hostility towards the financial services sector.
Already, all of the major investment banks operating in London have begun exploring whether it makes sense to relocate staff to other financial centres because of the Chancellor's imposition of a 50pc tax on all bonus payments of more than £25,000.
I also understand that Tullett is to explore the possibility of relocating its corporate headquarters, and that Singapore is among the likely new destinations as a consequence of Asia's growing clout in global financial markets.
Tullett alone pays tens of millions of pounds in UK corporate taxes every year, while the 750-or-so traders (who have been requesting the opportunity to relocate for some time) probably pay far more in income and other taxes here. So it's not hard to see how a few more relocations of this scale would suddenly dwarf the revenue the Treasury will rake in from the bonus tax - even if that's several times the projected £500m figure.
Remember that Smith and his colleagues in the Tullett boardroom have a legal obligation to act in the interests of the firm's shareholders - and not to offer employees this opportunity would be to risk the defection of Tullett staff to rivals.
It's not even clear whether Tullett falls into the bonus tax net, but the uncertainty has clearly proved to be the tipping point for Smith.
There's probably only one paper-thin silver lining here for the Government, which is that Tullett Prebon isn't thinking of going to New York or Paris.
In reality, it could be the beginning of a disastrous (in fiscal terms) stampede for Britain's borders.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/kleinman/Post:de1b0eef-3007-41e4-8c29-e505d85edc70