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Labour is outpolling the SNP in Scotland...

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BolivarianHero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-30-10 01:21 AM
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Labour is outpolling the SNP in Scotland...
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/2010.01.29_Vote_BRI.pdf

I guess Iraq must be nice at this time of year...Would emphasizing Iraq help the SNP in Scotland?
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-30-10 06:22 AM
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1. I don't think it'd help that much
There was already an Iraq affect in the 2005 election; but it looks as if that went more to the Lib Dems. Compare the poll with the 2005 results:

Party Seats Gain Loss Net Votes % +/-%
Labour 41 0 5 -5 922,402 39.5 -4.5
Lib Dem 11 2 0 +2 528,076 22.6 +6.3
SNP 6 2 0 +2 412,267 17.7 -2.4
Con 1 1 0 +1 369,388 15.8 +0.2


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_7.stm

Note that the Lib Dems were the only large party to significantly increase their vote in 2005, compared to 2001; the figure in this poll (Lab 35%, SNP 26%, Con 19%, LD 14%) mainly show a big increase for the SNP and loss for the LDs; I'd put that down the the SNP running Holyrood relatively compentently, and probably the fading of Iraq in voters' minds. But the main point is that in Westminster elections, Labour has always outpolled the SNP. This poll has them set to do their best ever in a UK-wide election.
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Anarcho-Socialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-31-10 09:57 AM
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2. I agree with muriel
Iraq is not a major issue in the upcoming election. The SNP will probably go with the expected independence argument but that won't give them much traction. Support for splitting the Union is not very high and the powers of the Holyrood Parliament seem rather satisfactory.
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