So does the airline strike mean a labour loss in May?

[craigmatic]

I was just checking the headlines and the strike could make Brown's election chances more difficult. Any thoughts?

[LeftishBrit]

1. I don't think that will be the crucial factor...

Labour could well still lose; but I doubt that it will be mainly due to this strike. Anti-incumbent feeling in a bad economy will be more of a problem. Dare I hope that Dave, Georgie Osborne et al may by now have shown enough of their true colours to spoil their own chances of a big win?

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Unlikely to have much of an effect unless things change

A poll published today asked about it:

YouGov asked a series of questions on trade unions and Unite. 49% of people thought that Unite had a great deal or a fair amount of influence over the government. 17% though it was ever thus – that Labour had always been controlled by the unions, 28% thought Labour had distanced itself, but control was now shifting back. 32% thought that Labour used to be controlled by the unions but no longer was (including a majority of Labour supporters). More generally, 22% of people think trade unions are too powerful in Britain today, 19% thinki they are not powerful enough with 45% thinking they have about the right level of power.

Asked specifically about the BA strike, 35% of respondents thought the government should have condemned the strike more strongly, 18% thought the government got their criticism about right (a sum of 53% supporting the government criticising the strike). 30% said the government should not have taken sides, with 4% saying the government should have supported the strike.

Hardly anyone says the strike would actually change their vote at the election (and most of those that do can be dismissed – the 4% who say it makes them less likely to vote Labour are mostly Conservative voters anyway, while most of the 1% who say it makes them more likely to vote Labour are already Labour voters). However, while it may not be a direct consideration, it could still have an indirect effect in terms of the government’s response and the effect upon their party image.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2524

The thing is that few people are actually customers of BA at any one time. There is a possible upcoming railway strike, which has the potential to affect many more people - and it's against Network Rail, which is sort of government-owned.

[miscsoc]

4. That's reassuring

With regard to the BA strike. The rail thing alarms me though. Do you know what the logic is behind the plan to take action before the election? (Easter, the article says) I'll admit to being ignorant of the mechanics of timing these things, and of the degree of freedom of action they have, but bob crow must be aware of the possible political consequences. So if you could enlighten me a bit. I should have been more informed already.

[fedsron2us]

9. I would expect the rail strike to be far more of an election issue

than the BA dispute which has been rumbling on for months and would have come to a head well before now if the employer had not tried to delay matters in the courts. The truth is that organised labour is likely to be getting quite a lot more militant going forward because many workers are simply fed up with being shat on for years by the elites who now expect them also to bear the financial burden for all the banking fucks ups. While Labour wont benefit from this mood swing because they have basically become pseudo Thatcherite capitalist arse lickers there are signs that the left may be making a come back in other parts of Europe such as France.

[T_i_B]

3. Tories are blathering on endlessly about UNITE funding Labour

which is a bit rich coming from Lord Ashcroft's party.

[miscsoc]

5. it'll work though

i have no faith in the electorate. if labour lose this time i'm cancelling my membership and throwing my lot with the snp out of despair at the prospects for even the mildest social democracy in britain as presently constituted

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. Indeed

and UNITE is made up of millions of workers, while Ashcroft is funding the Tories for his own self-interest (to the detriment of the many). There is no moral equivalence there.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

7. The Tory-press are union-baiting because Dave is using that line

It isn't very convincing and it won't get anywhere, New Labour can hardly appear to be very influenced by the trade unions. They haven't even bothered to repeal Thatcher's anti-union laws. The unions have stuck with Labour because there is nowhere else to go.

[Nihil]

8. If you substitute "anticipate" for "mean" then yes.

Idle chatter whilst standing around outside during a fire evacuation
(false alarm from a wiring fault) suggests that most people in that
particular impromptu survey see the current crop of strikes & strike
threats to be anticipation that Labour will be kicked out "so they'd
better get them in before the Tories get a chance to crack down on them".

The strikes will have little to no effect on the election outcome but
are just attempts to blackmail the last pay rise out of the government
& employers (while the latter are desperate to hold back on any concessions
until after the election). It's a bit like Darling's budget plans to
defer any pain until after Labour have lost the election so that they can
set up a dig ready for next year from the Opposition benches.

:shrug: