Come on UKers, I want your election predictions

[Anarcho-Socialist]

Poll question: Come on UKers, I want your election predictions

My prediction is that the Tories will be the largest party, but a Lib-Lab pact forms the next government with a small working majority.

[oldironside]

1. Nice post.

Shame you can't hold people to their predictions. I will stick my head on the block and vote for the thing I REALLY don't want - a Tory/DUP alliance. I hope that my track record as a pundit is as (in)accurate as ever. I tipped Arsenal for the title this year.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. I really can't work out what's going to happen

Every time I come up with a scenario, I think "but party/leader X wouldn't agree with that, and then ...". Which I think will probably mean another election within 6 months. But I can't work out who will be PM in the time until then (and that could well be more than one person).

Cameron really seems to have ruled out offering any form of PR to the Lib Dems, and so I don't think the Tories can offer enough to the Lib Dems to get their support. If they're above 300 votes (and I notice the betting odds put the median Tory seats at about 320) then they'd attempt to form a minority government - but Brown has to give up, or try to get the Queen's Speech passed and get voted down, before Cameron can try that. I think if they get above 315, Brown will resign - because Cameron will get Unionist support enough to survive (at first, anyway). If it's below that, then Cameron may not be able to muster the votes to force Brown to resign, so Brown may try to stay.

If Labour come second in the vote (and seats), then a government under Brown could be within what Clegg said he'd accept - though I don't think it'd last long (Brown would still be damaged goods, and any election of a new Labour leader would be both about who the Labour electoral college want, and who can work with the Lib Dems). They'd need to offer a referendum on voting - I think it'f be "do we adopt AV+", since Labour has said AV is good, the Lib Dems have said it's not enough, it was the recommendation of the Jenkins commission, and it's not too different from the Scottish/Welsh system, which people actually seem happy with.

If the Lib Dems get more votes than Labour, then Clegg's position is meant to be 'Brown must go'. But I can't see who'd lead Labour then - and it's hard to see any sort of pact coming out of that. It might have to be 'Labour elect a new leader, and then a new election is called'.

My guess for the seat outcome is Conservatives under that 315 mark (but probably over 300), and Labour will beat the Lib Dems in total number of votes - by a very narrow margin. So perhaps Brown will offer an AV+ referendum to the Lib Dems (hoping it will be rejected - he knows the Tories will work against it; and he won't promise to make Labour campaign for it), and start a new government - if the referendum can't be held soon, then he might have to agree to stand down after a Labour leader has been held.

But every time I look at what I've written, I think "but ..." .

[TheBigotBasher]

13. I largely agree

although Nick Clegg has not made PR a pre condition of any pact (or if any). To secure a pact the Conservatives could offer a referendum on electoral reform, again without offering support for that referendum. They could even add in more proportional representation models than Labour in part because the system proposed by Labour is even less proportionate than the current system and it would have meant that they got more seats in 2005 than under current rules.

There are going to be three magic figures for the Conservatives tonight.

Anything below 300 will probably not be enough for Gordon Brown to resign. 300 to 310 will probably not be enough but wiser heads will probably prevail. At that level of seats a minority government is still near to impossible to manage without some formal deal with other parties. I doubt that either Labour or the Liberal Democrats would call a confidence motion on the Queen' speech though. The money would not be there. That however places the budget in to difficulty, which is where the SNP / Plaid bribe could come in.

If Labour retain the largest share of seats but get the lowest vote I do not see Brown resigning. He will still take that as a mandate. However I can not see the Liberal Democrats wanting to go in to a pact with a very unpopular Prime Minister. If Brown is out how quickly could Labour elect a new Leader acceptable to the Liberal Democrats? The possible "interim" PM would even be horrifying to the remaining Labour MP's never mind the Liberal Democrats.

In addition to the difficulties faced by the Leadership forming a pact, the Liberal Democrat constitution is highly democratic. Their manifesto reads like it was written by a committee because it was written by a committee. The Parliamentary Party is required to seek agreement with the membership if they wish to form a pact. That may not be easy to do quickly.

I am going to have fun waiting for heads to roll. Balls could go, although I have my doubts and with a doubling in Liberal Democrat support some Conservative heads could be for the chop. People losing seats unexpectedly makes for great tv. We all remember Portaloo.

_____________

Added - In terms of seats whatever Nate says. Even though his model is untested in the UK.

[ikri]

3. Not a clue

Virtually everyone that I've spoken to is going to vote either Lib Dem or Labour, but then I live on Teesside in a constituency with one of Labour's largest majorities so it isn't that surprising that the Tories aren't well thought of around here (more so since Cameron's threat to public spending cuts in the North East).

I can't see any party gaining an overall majority. The polls suggest that the Tories will get the most votes, but they also add a percentage to the Tories to cover for the ick-factor of admitting that you're a Tory voter but the ick-factor this time around isn't with the Tories which could be completely misdirecting the polls. There are also some suggestions that a large portion of voters still haven't made up their minds, I've read posts on other (non-political) forums from people who have been ardent Tory supporters saying that they may actually vote Lib Dem instead. It makes predicting the election almost impossible.

[BooScout]

4. Hell I have no Idea......

But I voted in the poll that it would be some sort of Labour/Lib Dem wheeling and dealing. I'm thinking all the undecideds are not going to swing to the Tories.....but will probably reluctantly vote more Labour than anything.

[non sociopath skin]

5. I wish I felt comfortable enough about this to treat it as a Guessy-Game, AS ...

... but there's too much at stake.

I look at Cameron and Osborne, then I look at the coverage from Greece and ...

I'll just keep my fingers crossed.

The Skin

[miscsoc]

6. heartbreaking optimism here from some people!

personally i think you can't go wrong underestimating the british people so i voted tory-dup nightmare coalition

[mwooldri]

7. Conservative Minority, with parties backing whichever parts of legislation they can.

If the Cons can agree with Labour on something and they both vote for it... then everyone else is shut out. It is possible that the Lib Dems can hold the balance of power on their own and policies can come from Labour and Lib Dems and that would get support, and some Conservatives get support from Lib Dems about their policies.

But I remember 1992 too well, the BBC predicted Neil Kinnock as Prime Minister with a slim majority... it had to change its prediction through the night to hung parliament and then to Tory majority - albeit a slim one. I think the pollsters still remember that disaster and will be cautious to call it one way or another.

[EmilyKent]

8. 40% are still undecided.

I don't ever recall a time when it's been so up-in-the-air.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

10. Welcome to DU

there's not much consensus in the opinion polls nor in the media about the probable result. Although the betting markets are predicting a slim Tory-UUP majority.

[EmilyKent]

11. Thank you.

It seems it could go any which way, so it should be an interesting few days, maybe even weeks.

[craigmatic]

9. five thirty eight has the tories taking 312 with liblab at a combined 308

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Paddy Power have paid out on bets that Cameron will be the next PM

That surprises me - I can see they might feel confident that the Tories will get more seats than anyone, but this seems to imply they know there's no chance of a Lib-Lab pact of any sort.

http://www.electionbetting.com/article.php?articles_id=221

It's undated - they may even have done this a few days ago (it says "Cameron’s strong performance in the final TV debate on Thursday saw a relentless tide of betting support for the Conservatives in the outright market", which implies it was before today, anyway).

[LSdemocrat]

14. Just for once, I'd like to see the Tories perform at the low-end of the final projections, or worse

and correspondingly have Labour and/or the Lib Dems perform at the high-end of the final projections, or better.