Who will have to face their Portillo moment tonight?

[TheBigotBasher]

In the last two weeks my name has been in headlines for the first time in years. Will a cabinet minister suffer the humiliation of losing his seat in the full glare of national publicity, as I did in 1997? Will he (oh please, please yes!) endure "a Portillo moment"? My name is now synonymous with eating a bucketload of shit in public. I am on the brink of becoming a noun and so passing into history, alongside Captain Boycott and the Hooligan family.
When I am asked whether anyone at today's election is likely to suffer the same ignominy, I say, "Balls to that", and for good reason. But strictly speaking, if the children's secretary is defeated tonight – if Ed Balls falls – it won't qualify as a Portillo moment, because a genuine Portillo moment has to come out of left field.
In other ways, I would regard Balls as my worthy successor, for a Portillo moment should lead to national jubilation unmatched since the relief of Mafeking, and I stand ready to light tonight's first bonfire and launch the first rocket. In my case, my defeat was later voted by Channel 4 viewers and Observer readers their third favourite moment of the 20th century. I am proud to have nudged the assassination of President Ceausescu into fourth place.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/06/portillo-moment-ed-balls-tonight

I doubt that it will be Balls. The majority looks too big, although that is what shocked those watching in 1997. I do however expect that there will be at least one Labour minister to face defeat tonight who was not expecting it. With the Liberal Democrats likely to double their share of the vote there may be some Conservative surprises too.
Any guesses on who?

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. I think you're right that Balls will hang on

(my, the pun possibilities are endless, aren't they?). In that case, the highest profile MP to go will be Jacqui Smith, I think. Only a 5.2% nominal lead at the last vote, porn expenses fiasco, and an unimpressive performance as a Home Secretary.

[TheBigotBasher]

2. She is certainly someone who would not believe that she could lose.

Serve her right for the ID Cards.

[Prophet 451]

3. Cameron, if there's any justice

Since there isn't, it'll probably be some poor fucker who did nothing to deserve it.

[LeftishBrit]

4. Not Balls, I hope. I quite like him, I wouldn't cry if it was Charles Clarke,..

but much better still, Cameron or Osborne! Or perhaps Liam Fox, Andrew Lansley, or, though he's not in the Shadow Cabinet, David Davis.

[LeftishBrit]

5. We've already got the answer.

Peter Robinson!

[TheBigotBasher]

6. He was expected

he wasn't going to get over the peace agreement and a sex scandal.

[TheBigotBasher]

7. One shock one.

Lembit Opik.

[LSdemocrat]

8. What the heck was that about?

[non sociopath skin]

9. Let's be honest. Opik is a publicity-seeking prat ...

... and the earnest Tory farmer obviously appeals to sedate Montgomeryshire.

I think that Cheeky Asteroid Man may have shot himself in both feet.

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. I blame the space aliens (nt)

[T_i_B]

11. Well, it turned out to be Charles Clarke and Jaqui Smith.

I guess the moral of the story is that if you want re-election, don't become Home Secretary.

[TheBigotBasher]

12. Good

I missed them though but I will not miss them.

[LeftishBrit]

13. Having just looked up the details of the 1997 election..

how did I EVER manage to miss or forget what should have been, for me, the most beautiful political moment of my life?

Never mind the Portillo moment - how do I not remember the Rhodes Boyson moment?!

One of my most hated MPs, and a revolting, far-right, destructive junior Education Minister and long-term propagandist against anything post-Victorian in education - not to mention a virulent homophobe. Somehow I had thought that he had left Parliament of his own accord - but no, he lost in '97 in the most massive swing! Mmmmmm. A long-delayed gloat here! And hoping that before too long I might at least be up for the demise of an another hated Education Minister: the 'Nick Gibb moment!'

[TheBigotBasher]

14. I liked Rhodes Boyson as a Parliamentarian.

We should have more like him, Dennis Skinner and Tony Benn (his son is a disgrace to the history of his father). Parliament is much the worse for the clones of Blair in all Parties recruited from the same jobs and same social background. They even wear the same suits.

I remember Boyson getting duped by Ali G on children getting caned in school.One of the best political interviews ever.

As Constituency MP's none of the recent crop, with the exception of the wonderful Sarah Tether could lay a claim on Paul Boateng and Rhodes Boyson.

So to that extent Rhodes Boyson losing was a giant political earthquake. It was not even on tv. No one had expected the closure of Edgware General hospital to have had the impact it had. It wiped out safe Tory majorities in the Harrow seats, Brent North and in Barnet. Swings that were twice the size of the National swing.

Much of that was the fault of Rhodes Boyson himself. He made the closure an issue personally. He did his usual trick of being a rebel on t but a loyalist in the lobby. Only this time the local papers carried the vote and he paid the price. Not that voting against would have saved him, Harrow East and Harrow West, home of the TRG rebels also fell heavily.

The Conservatives were so shell shocked by the loss of Brent North that they could not even take advantage of Barry Gardiner supporting the closure when he won the seat.

For someone supposedly homophobic his Party Agent, employed and funded by Boyson was a very out gay man. (Who also happened(s) to be a very nasty and horrible man).

Boyson was the last Brent North Conservative MP. I'd say that Barry Gardiner is now very firmly ensconced in that seat, which is not entirely down to him as an MP but more to the state of the Conservatives in Brent. There is no way back for them now.

The Labour Party are in just as much a mess in Brent. They are however in less of a mess than the Tories and the Liberal Democrats concentrated entirely on their crown jewel and lost the crown as a result they got a landslide in the Brent Council elections.

There is of course a general lesson there. Do not become a part time rebel. Once you rebel, you are rebel. Kate Hoey is one who made a great transition to rebel status. You have to be able to sell yourself as the MP or politico because once you rebel you can no longer sell the rosette on your lapel.

[non sociopath skin]

15. A great "parliamentarian," eh?

Rather in the spirit wherein the Telegraph talks fondly about "Great Characters" and "Great Parliamentarians" when ignorant, chauvinistic, self-serving old back-benchers - who have done nothing except seek self-publicity and the cheques that go with it for their entire political careers - finally pop their clogs.

You are certainly very selective in the Bigots you choose to Bash, my friend.

The Skin

[LeftishBrit]

16. I agree about Benn, and Skinner - but we do not need more hard-right-wingers...

however good they may be as 'Parliamentarians'.

[TheBigotBasher]

17. I think we do

if we had a true PR system bust still based on Constituencies and not some National list system we would see the Conservatives split between the wannabe UKIPpers and UKIP, the TRG wing split with the more liberal wing of the Liberal Democrats, the Cameron wing forming a Social Democratic / Conservative party, Labour split off between real Labour and and New Labour and the Liberal Democrats split off between the orange bookers and the more left of centre old Liberals.

I would say that would make for a better Parliament.

Much of the worst aspects of the last 30 years would not and could not have happened with a properly reflective House of Commons and one thing the last 30 years did not give us was "strong and stable government".

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. He was an ardent Thatcherite, and a bigot

He served in Thatcher's government for 8 years, and was still singing her praises 12 years later: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Lecture/What-We-Can-Learn-from-Margaret-Thatcher

He was a homophobe:

Rhodes Boyson MP demanded action against the councils, saying: “It is wrong biblically, is homosexuality. It is unnatural. Aids is part of the fruits of the permissive society. The regular one-man, one-woman marriage would not put us at risk in this way. If we could wipe out homosexual practices, then Aids would die out.”

http://www.johannhari.com/2008/06/13/section-an-obituary

What did he do as a 'parliamentarian' that could make up for that?

[TheBigotBasher]

19. Surprised but not shocked. Boyson was a rentaquote that loved the Daily Mail.

I have come across and worked with a lot of MP's and there are not many I would consider as great Parliamentarians. I do not just mean their ability to climb the greasy pole or act as a rentaquote for the Daily Hate. I would also add in their Constituency work and their relationship to their constituents. It helps that I have worked with embers liaison on behalf of many LAs.

The sad reality is that there are too many Constituencies where people say that they have never seen their local Councillor never mind their MP. Great Parliamentarians are those that do not forget their Constituency.

Clare Short was active nationally but she was also a great local MP. Few in her constituency would say that they had not seen her. Her goodbye letter to her constituents was extremely revealing.

My current MP, I'm not saying who it is, is awful. She is never at her surgeries and the few she holds are always carried out by her Constituency office staff.

So going back to Boyson, despite Ministerial careers Paul Boateng and Rhodes Boyson were both very good as Constituency MP's. More often than not it would be one of them on the phone to the Council about a problem being faced by a constituent and not one of their secretaries. I knew them both reasonably well and I even visited their homes a number of times. I will just say of Boyson that I did not know about the comments reported by Attitude and I also wonder if his Agent at the time knew about them (someone else not to be trusted). His Agent was very openly gay.

It was attitudes like that that kept the "Nasty Party" out of power for 13 years (and more if you take in to account that they never gained power at the last election). People still have a legitimate distrust of them, despite the detoxification attempts made by Cameron.

I am still a bug fan of Paul Boateng. I'm prepared to be shot down here as well though. I knew them both when I was in my early 20s and went to the same gym as Paul. I always thought that Paul Boateng could have been our first black PM. He wasn't of Stonebridge (far from it) but he knew Stonebridge and he understood the area well. It is a pity he got sidelined to South Africa, although it was a job that was very hard to refuse. Ken Livingstone on the other hand was awful. It is quite telling that a near dead former Leader of the Labour Group on Brent Council got a higher level of vote in the By election than Ken did. Something Paul Daisley was happy to rub in the nose of Ken.

An example of the class of Paul Boateng was indeed the Brent North count. I was not there but from what I heard Paul Boateng called some Gardiner supporters off a very shell shocked Boyson and told them to go elsewhere. He did not need to do that.

So it seems that I will just add Boyson to yet another of the cynical failed media manipulators I have no respect for. A bigot for a column inch. Blame a semi starstruck youth on my part. Now my cynical side is constantly rewarded and that is a key part of the reason why I distrust all politicians, with a few exceptions.

I think it was Healey who understood that some MP's will be good in the Commons and some will be good locally but Parliament would be much worse without a good mixture of the two.

Now we do not even have those who are good at being either good performers in the Chamber or good local MP's. We have career politcos graduating from student union activity to lobbyist / researcher to MP. They have infected all parties like a cancer but with 24 hour news and stricter selection processes disguised as a more open method it will only get worse.