If Clegg unites with the Tories without PR....

[Vicar In A Tutu]

...it's the end of his party. They're a joke and their vote will collapse.

However late to the party and however opportunist Brown's turn to reform is, it's on the table and therefore unless Clegg and the Lib Dems are a pack of liars, talking about "reform" and drawing people in through that yet bite only on the promise of some cabinet positions or a few pieces of policy tittle-tattle, they'll refuse any Tory deal if Labour are offering genuine reform.

I've never trusted Clegg as much as I did Ashdown or Kennedy (see Clegg's decidedly right-leaning Orange Book for details) but doing a seedy deal with the Tories bereft of true electoral reform PROVES beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is the Conservative stooge some people suspected he might be several years ago.

[TheBigotBasher]

1. Labour is not offering PR

I can not see Clegg supporting Brown.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Brown has offered a referendum on electoral reform

without specifying if he means just AV, or AV+ or something else:

"The first is the plan to ensure continuing economic stability, where there is substantial common ground, and the plan to carry through far-reaching political reforms, including changes to the voting system.

"Both of us have made clear our commitment to this in our manifestos and the electorate has sent us a very strong message which must be heard.

"My view is clear, there needs to be immediate legislation on this to begin to restore the public trust in politics and to improve Parliament's standing and reputation, a fairer voting system is central.

"And I believe that you the British people should be able to decide in a referendum what the system should be.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/election/gordon-browns-statement-in-full-14799249.html

Could we hold a multiple choice referendum? Should we?

[Vicar In A Tutu]

3. If PR is on the ballot, then yes.

There's no reason not to. Let the people decide, and let's hope we can smash through the barriers put up by the Murdoch press and push it through.

[TheBigotBasher]

5. I'm betting that a deal will require more than an AV referendum.

Also if there is to be an electoral commission i t needs to examine what teh hell happened to create 2 hour plus wait times, separate apartheid like queues for students and the possible postal vote fraud in London.

Labour likes AV because it would have given them a bigger majority in 2005 it would have also given the Lib Dems fewer seats so it is not a system they would agree to.

[non sociopath skin]

6. So what are your thoughts, Muriel?

Will Clegg go for it? Should he?

As you know, I've often disagreed with LibDem supporting DUers because of my own experiences with the LibDems in an area where they clearly see themselves as centre-right and have no difficulty with working with the Conservatives in local government. The 1980s pact was even called the "Anti-Socialist Alliance".

However, I was willing to give Clegg the benefit of the doubt because we need a left-of-centre government in order to mitigate the cumulative effects of both Thatcherism and NuLabism and because the electoral system needs to be made more responsive to voter wishes.

IMHO if Clegg gives thus up in order to take a bag of sweeties from the Heirs of Thatcher, he and his party deserve everything they get.

And, by jove, they'll get it.

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. If Cameron explicitly offers a referendum with AV+ or STV as the option

I think he should take it. It's an opportunity that comes along so rarely, and the result should mean a leftish coalition becomes the norm for British government that I think it's worth it. I'd want to see one of those offered as the single alternative to FPTP, so that it doesn't 'split the reform vote' by some wanting AV, and some AV+, but FPTP getting more votes than either (and the irony of such a result would be too much). I have no idea if anyone would actually offer a multiple choice referendum - I'm thinking allowed here.

There's the possibility that it'd be turned down in the referendum, of course, which would be a kick in the teeth.

I'm also mindful of Mervyn King's "whoever wins this election will be out of power for a generation". Having the Tories carry the can for fiscal problems, while getting PR, isn't that bad.

[non sociopath skin]

14. And how would you rate Cameron's chances of offering that ...

... as opposed to a talking shop to keep the LibDems busy while the Tories dismantle the Welfare State?

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. At the moment, it does seem the Tories are unlikely to go that far

but that may be their post-election euphoria, or a negotiating position to get what they can on this or another issue. With the Tories well ahead of Labour on votes and seats, PR would stand a better chance if the referendum is introduced in conjunction with the Tories - or the Tories will run against it as "this is what both the losers want, because they're unpopular". And constructing the multi-party pact needed for a Labour-led government is not guaranteed to work, either. And if Labour couldn't form a coalition, it'd be a Tory minority government, and if it ends up as a wuick election, the Tories have more money ...

[non sociopath skin]

18. I hear what you say, Muriel, but I can't see the Tory Turkeys voting for Christmas ...

.. in any way shape or form.

The Skin

[TheBigotBasher]

9. They will also get punished for supporting Brown.

Probably as many voted Lib Dem to get rid of Brown as to keep Cameron out. As well as those who voted positively for the Lib Dems.

[Vicar In A Tutu]

11. That's irrelevant.

And judging by the figures, it would seem that more Lib Dems still tactically vote in favour of Labour. I expect there'd have been more losses otherwise.

The fact is, if Brown is offering the chance of PR and Clegg isn't, he'd have to go entirely against the principles of his party - and indeed himself - to accept Cameron's offer.

[TheBigotBasher]

13. It certainly is not irrelevant.

The Liberal Democrats are still an uneasy merger of the Liberal Party and the Social Democratic Party. Their vote stil comes from uneasy Conservatives.

PR is however the price. Labour is as fully opposed to PR as the Tories so the price will depend on who offers a more credible referendum promise and also who can convince their own MP's and in the case of the Lib Dems their membership as well.

[Vicar In A Tutu]

10. Indeed.

You know, I hope the next Labour leader renounces Iraq from the off - If he voted for it say, "look, in truth, I was conned. Like a lot of people, I was conned." that would be refreshing - unlikely, but refreshing.

Otherwise, Labour are much closer to my heart than the Lib Dems. Inequality has increased, sure, but that's the freight train of Thatcherism for you. It's a skewed picture though because while the wealthy have accumulated additional money quickly, the poor aren't as destitute as they were in the 80s. There is more help. There is a minimum wage. And then there are civil partnerships, which are surely a great thing regardless of your economic standing.

Nick Clegg co-wrote a decidedly Thatcher-esque tome entitled The Orange Book, setting out a dubious economic vision. With that said, there are many genuinely Liberal Lib Dems. Good people, though I felt the party in much safer hands under Ashdown and particularly Charles Kennedy than I do now. The perception of the Lib Dems as a socialist super-power are completely distorted. If Labour can break from the shackles of last decade's war alliance with Blair's soulmate, Bush, they will once again be the only real option for the left leaning voter, however imperfect they will always be.

Thatcherism created a monster. Expecting - whether you're from the UK or the US - a return to proper left-wing government after the horrific sea change of the 1980s is a pipe dream. That changed everything, and while the train cannot be stopped there still exist some who'll look to slow it down somewhat.

[Vicar In A Tutu]

4. He didn't have to before.

Now he has the Tories rubbing their hands together at the prospect of breaking up the UK and creating their own "reform" of the system, which will leave England a perpetual Tory haven.

If a Clegg backed Cameron government is the alternative, Labour have no choice but to offer PR now.

[TheBigotBasher]

7. Despite their still poor showing they are still

the Conservative and Unionist Party. Making some kind of deal with the SNP and Plaid to give the Conservatives power in favour of Scottish/Welsh independence is about as likely as a Labour/Conservative alliance.

The Leadership positions of Clegg and Cameron are not hugely removed from each other, nor are their manifestos, the problem both Leaders face is that their Party membership are very far removed from each other.

In terms of Party equivalents, the leaders are probably nearer to a marriage between Reid and Bayh. Their membership (on both sides) see it as a marriage between Bernie Sanders and Sarah Palin.

[fedsron2us]

21. You are absolutely right about the antipathy between Conservative and Liberal Democrat

party members being a major stumbling block. In my experience it is often as profound as animosity between Labour and Tories (I have even had a Tory Councilor tell me he would rather lose his seat to Labour than the Lib Dems). I suspect it is in part because each party fears the other might be its nemesis.

Of course, the Tories have another major stumbling block that their desire to maintain the Union of the United kingdom is not matched by any real electoral support outside of England. I think that particular ghost is going to come back to haunt them again and again over the next few years particularly if they try to apply budget austerity measures to Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cut too hard and the union might collapse. Try and limit the cuts to just England and Tory voters in the south will be lynching their MPs. In that respect the Tories do need the Lib Dems because they ironically are a party that has representation right across most parts of the British mainland

[LSdemocrat]

12. Is there any chance Labour would offer a hybrid AV/STV + PR system on a referendum?

This idea would be loosely based on the German system where have the seats in Parliament would be constituency based and decided by a STV, and the other half of the seats would allocated proportionally based on the first choice votes on the STV ballot.

It would allow both Labour and the Lib Dems to save face by essentially marrying their two manifesto ideas on electoral reform together.

[EmilyKent]

15. Talks tonight.

A bit more detail on the talks between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. There was a conversation between Nick Clegg and David Cameron on the phone this afternoon. The BBC was told it was very constructive but there was no real discussion of detail and it was very much the start of the process. There will now be further talks starting tonight with a meeting between George Osborne, William Hague, Oliver Letwin and Ed Lewellyn, David Cameron's chief of staff. The Lib Dem team will be Chris Huhne, Danny Alexander, Andrew Stunnell and David Laws.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/

[TheBigotBasher]

16. Interesting choices for the discussions.

I will just add the biggest mistake for the Lib Dems to make would be for them to try and negotiate the position of being Chancellor from either Labour or the Conservatives.

[fedsron2us]

22. The post of Chancellor is the key ministerial appointment

If they are smart the Liberal Democrats will insist on the job being done being done by the ruling party but will want some sort of veto over who is appointed.

Putting on my Peter Mandelson hat my advice to Clegg would be to tell David Cameron that Ken Clarke is the only MP from his party I would accept as Chancellor. This has a number of benefits for the Liberal Democrats. It makes them look statesmanlike as they are eschewing personal power in favour of the country's interests. They can argue that Clarke is the only Tory with sufficient experience to do the job and that his presence will help calm the financial markets which are likely to have more confidence in him than Osbourne. It would probably also play well with the public. Should it all go horribly wrong for the economy a Tory is still left holding the baby while the Liberal Democrats can distance themselves from any fall out. Last of all it lays the old European time bomb at the heart of the Tory party which could conveniently go off prior to any future election.

[TheBigotBasher]

23. I think half the Tories would like that.

Georgey Boy is not popular on Conservative web sites on both the left of the Party and the right.

There was a poll done recently and Clarke had huge support for him being made Chancellor. I doubt he would take it though.

I have another guess to complicate things further, if Cameron fails to secure a deal wwhat are his chances of survival?

I could just see the two biggest Parties getting involved in to some giant internal civil war. Neo Con Labour will not want to get rid of their grip on Labir (where would Mandleson, Millibrat, et go) and teh left will want to punish Neo Con Labour in the same way the Labour right punished the left for 83. Fairs fair.

The same applies to the Conservatives. A relatively liberal manifesto. A return to the base for the campaign posters. What did the Conservatives stand for?

[miscsoc]

19. I'm not sure about that.

The politics and social composition of the Lib Dems are complex and contradictory. A lot of Lib Dem voters do seem to be the sort of person who would have voted for Heath or somebody in the past. The base is more left afaik. I hope the party would collapse if Clegg threw in his lot with the right but I'm not as confident as you. I voted Lib Dem and I'm feeling a bit queasy right now.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

20. I hope he's just going through the motions to save face

The media put him in a difficult position and he said he'd give the largest party first chance of coalition talks to deflect the "vote Clegg get Brown" accusation.

What he could take from the talks is a negotiating position to take with Brown. Clegg could easily come out and say that Cameron is not serious about PR and blame the Tories for the failure of not getting an agreement.

[craigmatic]

24. What do you expect Clegg used to work for the tories as a staffer.

Lib dems' economic policies aren't even as progressive as labour's anyway.

[LeftishBrit]

25. 38Degrees are running a campaign on this; donate if you wish and can

https://secure.38degrees.org.uk/page/contribute/PR