So what is the game plan for the three main parties in the new Parliament

[fedsron2us]

Leaving the supposedly serious business of governing the country to one side and getting down to electoral politics how do their strategists see things panning out.

My personal belief is that both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats both entered the coaltion thinking it would be more advantageous to them and more damaging to the other party in the long run. In particular I think both have taken a gamble on the impact of the deal in alienating party activists and some core voters.

My suspicion is that Clegg believes the deal will benefit his party more than the Tories since Cameron will have trouble with the Eurosceptic wing of his party and defections to UKIP at local elections. This is not an unreasonable expectation given that the Tory right have previous 'form' in this area. I also think Clegg is of the opinion that nearly all publicity is good publicity as far as his party is concerned as the coalition will keep the Liberal Democrats permanently in the spotlight. Rightly or wrongly he may assume that the public will blame the Tories for any unpopular austerity measures and he may think it will be easier for the Liberal Democrats to exit the alliance at the time of their choosing should things go terribly wrong

Cameron and his allies have clearly made a similar judgement calculating that some Liberal Democrat activists as well as some tactical voters are regretting their decision to support the party and will desert it at the future for Labour. This would be particularly be important in some parts of England where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in direct competition and the switching of a few thousand votes from the Liberal Democrats to Labour would allow the Tory to win. The article in this Sunday's Independent about negative reaction to the coalition by Liberal democrat voters in Eastbourne and the desertion of the Lib Dems by Alex Kear their local party chairman in Worcester shows this calculation is not without some justification

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-party-faithful-feel-conned-by-coalition-1974685.html

As for Labour their choice is clearly going to revolve around how much of the legacy of the Blair/Brown years they are prepared to ditch. In some ways their task should be easier since they are the Official Opposition so can simply devote their time to chipping away at the coalitions morale and exploiting the problems it is doubtless going to experience over the next few years. Unfortunately I fear that the upcoming leadership election campaign may prove to be more acrimonious than many imagine. It is certainly going to be no walk over for a new Blair. I think old ideological divisions will revive and have to be resolved. This may not be a bad thing in the long run since the party had lost much of its original reason for existence during its long period of government and had become little more than a machine for winning and retaining power. The danger is that the party will revolt too fiercely against its recent past with the result it loses the populist touch that Blair, for all his faults, gave the party. In addition too much introspection would divert its attention from the real task which is fighting a reargaurd action to protect the living standards of ordinary people from the onslaught they are going to suffer from the new government.

[craigmatic]

1. That was actually a really good read. Labour is in a good position to retake power sooner

rather than later. Personally I think the lib dems have doomed themselves electorally for the forseeable future. Their presence in this government means they've effectively given up their claims to be of the left. Labour is now not only the only viable leftist national party but they're more pure than the lib dems. When the cuts start taking effect a majority of the lib dem seats will go to Labour in the following elections. The torries may still have power but Cameron will have an uphill fight trying to get his government re-elected. As for Labor, their biggest stumbling block was Brown and now that he's gone they can pick a better leader who isn't afraid of facing off with Cameron in an election. The UK still doesn't trust the tories or the lib dems and it'll only get worse for them from here.

[T_i_B]

2. "more pure than the lib dems" ?????

Where have you been for the past 13 years? Labour is in no position whatsoever to be calling anyone else a sellout.

Labour activists would be well advised to quit the hysterics and put their own house in order first. If they can do that then they might just stand a chance. As it stands I'm getting more then a little fed up with Labour activists on the internet acting as if the rest of us were all born yesterday.

[craigmatic]

3. Well it's one thing to move the party to the middle but it's another thing

entirely to collaborate with the right wing tory party. Sure the last 13 years weren't all good but Labour isn't the party that's going to cut services like the tories always do just out of habit and they'd do it even if it wasn't a bad economy.

[TheBigotBasher]

6. Of all the Parties at the last eletion

who had the most authoritarian far right manifesto? Clue it was not the Party led by Cameron.

[non sociopath skin]

4. You're right, TiB

Essentially, what we're seeing is one centre-right government replaced by another with different priorities.

The public centre cuts and electoral reform seem to me to be the key areas and it's there that we should be focusing our fire.

The Skin

[mwooldri]

5. I dont see it as much of a problem for the Lib Dems as you may think.

A pure Conservative government would have had free rein to introduce some Thatcherite policies that would be extremely unpopular and the electorate would have to wait 5 years to kick them out again. I believe the Lib Dems in cabinet will temper the worst of the Tory policies yet at election time they can say "We stopped the Conservatives going to the extreme... and we got ideas that will make things better than what the Tories have done in power." Yes the Labour Party website crashed when the Con-Lib pact was announced but the other parties had a good number of people signing up too.

My folks back in the UK are actually relieved that this is a coalition and not a full blown Tory government because they remember the 80's & 90's and they had a horrid time... and are still cleaning up after that mess now in 2010.

The UK doesnt trust politicians as a body - period - no matter what party - the MP expenses scandal hit all three main parties.

In a lot of areas, esp the SW, it's Lib Dem vs Tory... so they wont be wiped out in a hurry.