Wishful thinking blogpost of the month

[non sociopath skin]

A want a bottle of what this guy is on.

http://markreckons.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-labour-party-could-be-gone-within.html

In denial, or what?????

The Skin

[oldironside]

1. He's entitled to his opinion...

... but I were him I would return to my constituency and prepare for electoral oblivion. Tactical voting in the LibDems favour is now a thing of the past.

[T_i_B]

2. "Tactical voting in the LibDems favour is now a thing of the past."

Only from those who wish to keep the Tories out.

In Labour strongholds you'll still get Tories voting Lib Dem to keep Labour out but much less so now in places where tactical voting would keep the Tories out.

I'm sure they'll still keep putting ridiculous barcharts in all their election literature same as before though.

[oldironside]

3. Yes, you're right.

I wrote the post in a hurry, but that was pretty much what I meant. They'll lose the Labour tactical support, plus a large part of their own support that is anti-Tory. How much remains to be seen, but once this is thrown into the melting pot of the UK electoral system anything is possible. Their first taste of power for a century could be their last for a long time.

[LeftishBrit]

4. Wow, yes - complete 'whistling to keep up spirits' here

I'm reminded of a poem that I once read, where a sailor during a storm is expressing his pity for the 'folks on shore now', and the dangers that the storm may cause them: 'So Willie, let's thank Providence/ That you and I are sailors!'

It looks much more like Labour regaining support from the LibDems. Under any circumstances this would have happened to some extent: former Labour voters who turned against the Labour Party because of Blair and the war would on the whole be much more willing to consider voting for Miliband. Not saying that he's the greatest, but he *is* Labour whereas Blair was a Tory! But also of course the LibDem party has essentially committed political suicide, through STUPID Clegg going into STUPID coalition with STUPID Cameron, and doing very little to resist the STUPID cuts - and in Danny Alexander's case actively exulting in them.

'Firstly, despite some recent signs that they are moving in the right direction the party leadership still has too much sway over policy making.'

What a piece of irony. Clegg went into aforesaid coalition with virtually NO consultation with MPs let alone party members. He himself admitted that he made the decision partly on the basis of texting a friend about whether Cameron could be trusted.


'If the Lib Dems had had a majority like Labour did between 1997 and 2010 then the government programme would have been essentially created and decided by the party.'

If my grandmother had wheels, she would be a train, as they say in my family. This was never going to happen. OTOH, people who hoped for a hung parliament were hoping that the LibDems would modify the impact of hardline government policies. On most issues, they haven't. Maybe they couldn't; but it would at least be better if the leadership were honest about it, and

'Secondly, the Labour party does not seem to know what it stands for any more... to see a party that once held such a clear vision for the future and founded the modern welfare state to be so directionless is quite sad and does not bode well for its future.'

That applies much less to Labour than in the Blair years, and much more to the LibDems at the moment than to anyone. As regards the modern welfare state, I bet William Beveridge is turning in his grave right now.

'I am referring to the tendency for Labour politicians and activists to push their own party line to the exclusion of everything else and to rubbish those of their opponents'

True of all parties. But Blair et al compromised to the extent of practically becoming Tories - as Clegg et al are now doing.


'There is no recognition of the compromises necessary, just blindly attacking the Lib Dems for "selling out" or "betraying" people.'

Compromises are necessary; but cutting everything (Osborne), ideologically punishing people for being poor (Duncan-Smith) and at least partly privatizing the NHS are not. Or at least the LDs could SAY: "We don't approve of these policies and are unable to stop them now, though we are trying as much as we can; but are continuing with the coalition in order to prevent even worse things from happening, and in the hope of influencing things more as time goes on'. That might not be exactly a big vote-winner for those who are losing their jobs and services NOW and can't afford to wait; but at least it clarifies that the cuts are not the wish of the LDs. Part of the problem here is the clash between the 'social' and 'market' liberals in the party. The likes of Laws and Alexander actually approve of what are basically Thatcherite policies. I probably overestimated the proportion of relative left-wingers in the party (seeing Kennedy, and my comparatively left-wing MP of the time, and my local Councillor, as more typical than they were); but also Clegg is dragging his party way to the right, as surely as Blair did.



'An important part of Labour's parliamentary strength in recent decades has been how its core support has been concentrated more in heavily populated and predominantly northern areas.'

And why? Because poorer people lived in those places, and were badly messed around by the Tories. By the time this Coalition and its cuts are through, there will be poorer people in lots of places, and they will all have been messed up by the Tories and LD enablers. So lots more places will vote Labour!

'And with the boundary changes likely in the next few years to equalise constituency sizes this reckoning is almost upon us.'

I.e. try to save Tory seats by gerrymandering them! And if the LDs don't think the gerrymander will damage them even worse than Labour, they have another think coming.

'I think a proportional system would be ideal in terms of fairness'

Well, I do support AV or a similar system, and will vote that way. But it doesn't mean I have to support everything else about the coalition.

[non sociopath skin]

5. Great post, LB.

I genuinely feel sorry for people who felt that the Lib Dems were a centre-left party and a panacea for the Blairites. Let us not forget that one half of the party was the SDP - the ur-Blairites.

During my time in local government, I heard too many Lib Dems railing about the evils of socialism and the joys of entrepreneurship to feel that I could trust them any more than I could Tony and his mates.

It would be nice to have a multi-party system but we only need one Conservative party.

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. A very impressive post, LeftishBrit n/t