Marine Le Pen poll rating shock for French politics

[Hopeless Romantic]

An opinion poll suggesting far-right leader Marine Le Pen could win the first round of next year's presidential election has caused a shock in France.

The survey for Le Parisien newspaper puts the National Front leader, who took over from her father Jean-Marie in January, ahead of all other candidates.

It gives her 23% of the vote, 2% ahead of both President Nicolas Sarkozy and Socialist leader Martine Aubry.

snip

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12660329



Seems to be a trend across Europe. Scary

[non sociopath skin]

1. Sadly, there has always been a significant xenophobic right minority in France ...

... but the majority always gives me hope.

The Skin

[tjwmason]

2. Also remember that they have run-off voting.

Jean-Marie le Pen made it into the second round in 2002 and the Socialists voted in vast numbers to keep him out under the slogan "Vote for the Crook not for the fascist".

The problem comes if this is a broader rise in support for the F.N. rather than an individual populist gaining support...more seats in the National Assembly, more local elected officials &c. can have a significant effect particularly in causing more moderate parties to adopt some of their policies and stances.

[non sociopath skin]

3. I suspect that much of it has to do with Sarkozy's failure ...

... to secure the far-right vote, in spite of his best efforts.

We also have to factor in the diverse left in France. There's no reference to the Greens, Communists and smaller, largely youth-friendly left groups, none of whose supporters would vote FN in the run-off.

The Skin