Is this the start of a long Conservative hegemony?

[Hopeless Romantic]

With electoral reform hopes dashed, Lib Dems in near-death agonies and the loss of Scotland, Labour has work to do

The AV referendum result comes as a thundering blow. In an era when voters are in rebellion against the old two-party duopoly, a third refusing to vote for either of the old tribes, the chance to shape an electoral system that might reflect that mood by recording people's true first choices has been cast away.

As for a properly representative system, that hope is dashed for years to come. Forget new parties breaking through, the portal to politics remains desperately narrow. Westminster can only be approached through the heavily guarded gateways of the old parties, barring the way to others. Parliament is a closed club that risks falling into deeper disrepute, further removed from its voters, less responsive to the increasingly complex feelings voters want to express. What's the point of voting, the poll refuseniks ask on the doorstep, if no one outside the two big parties ever has a chance.

How perverse to vote for less choice, but the reasons why are simple. The issue was steamrollered flat by the political passions of the day. For too many of those on the centre-left, instant vengeance against Lib Dems drove out all thoughts of the political future. It was a vile campaign, the No side mendacious beyond anything I can recall, the Yes side insultingly stupid with its call to make MPs "work harder".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/06/start-of-long-conservative-hegemony

[non sociopath skin]

1. An excellent and a worrying piece from Polly.

I fear that there's a lot of truth in it.

The Skin

[T_i_B]

3. There's a lot of sour grapes and bullshit regarding AV in the article.

As to the chances of a Conservative dominance, it depends on how badly thek cock things up in the next few years. Also, Labour would need to do a lot more to regain peoples trust.

The only party whose long term future seems clear at the present time is the Lib Dems and their future looks very bleak indeed.

[LeftishBrit]

2. I hope not!!!

It is IMO very disappointing about AV. I think that (a) the tabloid campaign against it did not help; (b) people at the moment are more interested in economic issues than in what was presented (even to some extent by the 'yes' side) as a rather arcane tinkering with the voting system; and (c) Clegg is The Dreg, and that influenced voting. Add to that that some people who did want electoral change didn't think AV was good enough, and wanted to hold out for STV or even something more 'purely' proportional.

In fact, with regard to (b), the voting system *is* in part an economic issue: if people can't get huge parliamentary majorities with 40% or less of the vote, it becomes more difficult to inflict drastic cuts, and other unwanted and drastic changes to the economy - not to mention to drag the country into unnecessary wars. More difficult, not impossible - right-wing Labourites, and useless LibDem leaders, can (and have!) defied the normal rules. But Thatcher and the power that came with her overwhelming parliamentary majority influenced me in the direction of wanting change right from the beginning. Opponents of voting reform sometimes say that it would make it more difficult for governments to make 'tough and unpopular decisions'. Precisely. That's one of the main reasons why I want it!

As regards (c), voting reform, though it would have benefitted the LDs, is not just about the LDs.

As regards the 'MPs working harder' bit, this is not my reason for wanting AV, and one would have to define 'working harder' anyway - being better constituency MPs?; turning up more regularly to parliament and committees?; thinking out their votes more carefully? But I thought it quite ironic that some Tories on the No side regarded this as such an insult to MPs, given that their whole attitude to everyone else is that all workers are lazy and have to be kept on their toes by threat of the sack and the pay cut, and that job security doesn't encourage hard work. Apparently, that does not apply to themselves.

Anyway, we haven't got voting reform; and though there were some very good results, it was not as clear a victory for the left of centre as I would have hoped, at least in England. But it wasn't a terrible result, and I think that having the AV referendum at the same time may have skewed the local election results: Tories were more likely to come out and vote No; LibDems to come out and vote Yes; Labour supporters on the whole to feel less strongly about AV and perhaps stay at home.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

4. Unnecessary handwringing

The Tories' receiving 35% of the vote hardly translates into hegemony even under FPTP. The shuffling of votes has occured amongst the nominal 'centre-left' parties.

The fears of the breaking of the union are overblown and it is a non-issue in Scotland.

[T_i_B]

5. It's not really a sober analysis from Toynbee

It's owes much more to hysteria and bitterness over the AV referendum result. And to be honest there could have been a Yes vote if

a) The Lib Dem's had not discredited themselves
b) The Yes2AV campaign hadn't been so rubbish

[non sociopath skin]

6. I hope you're right. AS.

IMHO, the Scottish situation isn't just about independence.

What's more likely is a trade-off of more limited representation at Westminster in return for more control over Scotland's domestic agenda, a deal which Cameron might find very attractive, once UK constituencies have been "adjusted" on the Tory model.

I find the prospect very worrying.

The Skin

[fedsron2us]

7. Ask the Liberal Democrats ?

If they quit the coalition then Parliamentary life for Cameron's government would immediately become a lot more difficult.

I dont really understand Toynbee's point about the supposed evils of the two party duopoly as both Labour and Conservatives have historically contained people who have covered the whole political spectrum. In fact the rise of the Liberal Democrats in the past 15 years has occurred at a time when British politics has got increasingly homogenized so that now we have leaders like Cameron, Clegg and Milliband who are basically trying to flog us the same car with a different coat of paint. The fundamental differences that used to exist not just between parties but also within them has largely disappeared as each has become increasingly full of machine politicians who see politics as a career not a matter of principle. In my opinion these changes made the arguments about AV largely poinless since it was just another attempt to gloss over the more fundamental failings of the system ( ie an attempt make a change that in the end would have altered nothing). In a way I am pleased that the misdirection has failed.