So my state (SA) is having an election on 18 March

[gemini_liberal]

No, not very exciting news I know, but I thought I'd share some details with y'all:

- South Australia is that big fat mass of land between the NSW/Vic and WA. I know you don't really hear much about it, we are actually a state :P Seriously though,

- This will be the first time the current Labor government, led by Mike Rann is up for re-election. Although, they are a bit barbaric on the law and order issue, they are actually quite progressive on other issues - in fact they are very progressive for such a conservative state - I'd in fact have Rann over somebody like Carr anyday. They are tipped to win in a landslide - this is proof against those who argue you must always play for the middle/right in conservative places.

- The Opposition is the Liberals (The National Party does exist here, but they are not in a coalition with the Libs - they only have one sitting MP at the moment!) led by Rob Kerin, who was Premier for a few months after the resignation of the corrupt John Olsen. He is an old fashioned conservative, who has done nothing as an opposition leader. I don't know what he offers as a leader or anything (maybe he was banking on voters punishing the Labor Party for the controversy of 2002 - which I'll cover in a bit. If he were an effective opposition leader, that might've been a good strategy.) The Liberals campaign strategy so far seems to be to do nothing but COMPLAIN about Labor's election tactics. At this rate, they are going to be pouring all their resources into defending their "safe" seats!

- The current government is a minority government, held up by a couple of Independents (one of them a Green, who used to be Labor.) A net gain of at least 2 seats will make it a majority government. Experts say this is almost certain to happen. The Current make up of the House of Assembly (lower house) is:

ALP: 22
Lib: 20
Nat: 1
Grn: 1
Ind: 3

Total: 47 (majority is thus 24)

- In 2002, the Labor government was elected in controversial circumstances. As you can see from those numbers, neither party got a majority (Labor had 23 seats at that point as the Green hadn't defected yet) and had to form deals with Independents. The ALP managed to court a former Lib independent, Peter Lewis - who got to be Speaker. The Liberals were angry at the deal (Lewis' electorate favours the Libs over ALP) and used every threat in the book against Lewis and Rann (including legal threats.) Kerin was such a sore loser he refused to concede, and didn't leave the office until he was officially booted by the first sitting of the new session of parliament. Lewis turned out to be a total nutjob and ended up having to resign from the Speakership last year (or 2004, I cannot remember) because he made paedophilia allegations against an MP that were unfounded. Another Independent, Bob Such is currently Speaker, and is maintaining the government's majority.

- My prediction of the result is Mike Rann's government easily winning re-elction with the following numbers

ALP: 31
Lib: 14
Nat: 1
Ind: 1

- The Legislative Council (upper house) has 22 members (11 elected each election.) No major party has a majority (thank heavens.) The current make up of it is:

Lib: 9
ALP: 7
Dem: 3
FF: 1
Ind: 2

of those, the following are up for re-election:

Lib: 4
ALP: 3
Dem: 2
Ind: 2

I sincerely doubt any of the two major parties will control it after the election (Labor do have a good shot of doing so in 2010 if they do well this time round.) I would like to see some Greens elected. They stand a shot of getting a seat, but I am not holding my breath. Realistically, I would be happy with Democrats and (sane) Independents holding the balance of power. I hope Family First do not get that advantage, but alas I fear they may win a seat again. This is my prediction of how the 11 seats will turn out:

ALP: 5
Lib: 3
FF: 1
Grn: 1
Ind: 1

Which'd make the total:

ALP: 9
Lib: 8
FF: 2
Dem: 1
Grn: 1
Ind: 1

Well anyway, sorry to bore you with this nonsense. I realise it is inconsequential to everyone else here, but I just thought I'd share this with you. Have a great day!

[Josh]

1. Nice. We'll check back after the 18th to see

if your prognostications come true. :)

[gemini_liberal]

2. Still whining

The Libs still are doing nothing but whine. The other week they complained about Labor having an economic scare campaign going (which we know the Liberal Party would nevvver do.) Now Kerin is whinging because of aggressive Labor tactics. See apparently elections were clean and nice until Mike Rann came along...

[gemini_liberal]

3. OK, to show how bad the Libs are going

They're policy in this election is to not bother with TV advertising (claiming to be above it all blah blah) the obvious truth is, they are completely broke (they had to beg a union for donations the other week) although they refuse to admit it. Although Kerin is seen as a nice bloke, general consensus is that he couldn't lead a conga line, let alone a state. Rann is seen as not a bad guy either, which shoots down the only thing Kerin had going for him.

Kerin is starting to piss people off with his policies and statements. He has vowed to cut a significant number of public service jobs - which has earned the ire of that sector, the government and many as that would mean a cutback of nurses, police etc. He then goes and puts his foot in his mouth in the TV debate by asserting that Rann has never worked a real job in his life, because he was a journalist - so most of the media has turned their back on him...

I have never in my life seen such a one sided election in my life! Although I am not that keen on Labor, especially after this FF preference BS - it's still enjoyable to see the Libs suffer like this!

[gemini_liberal]

4. Well Rann has won re-election in a landslide (10% swing in their favour.)

Unfortunately, I don't have the time today to write up a huge analysis, but here are the lower house result numbers to date:

ALP: 28
Lib: 14
Nat: 1
Ind: 2

In doubt: 2 (both trending toward Labor)

Total: 47

I'm not sure with the upper house. As I am sure you all know, the numbers are very difficult to know until every vote has been counted.

I will post a refined version of these numbers and a personal analysis, once the absentee votes have been accounted for and the numbers are official.

[Matilda]

5. Democrats done in the upper house.

John Coulter is still blaming Meg Less and her GST vote - maybe there's something in that, I know
how totally disenchanted we all felt at the time. And voters haven't forgotten - they waited four
years to get rid of Lees, but they did it. But Families First have picked up their vote, and that's
a huge worry. I know the Greens polled better than the Democrats, but I haven't found any final
figures.

The Greens also lost in Tassie, that's a shame. There seems to be a big pro-logging movement going
on there, and that's a tragedy for Tasmania.

Edit: adding a link to a transcript from ABC's AM program today:

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1595644.htm

[oscarmitre]

6. The Democrats in SA

are in strife because Sandra Kanck has come over to the average person as being completely out of touch with reality. The truth is that, like it or not, the Democrats are now irrelevant. They are threatened by the Greens since Labor has gone to the right.

Anyway I'm pleased with the result. Yes, Labor is pragmatic, a bit conservative, but it has the trust of the electorate now. I'm also pleased because the continuing wins by Labor at the state level is giving Howard the shits. I just hope Beattie can sort his government out in Queensland lest they be the first to turn.

[Matilda]

7. I must confess I don't know anything a bout Sandra Kanck -

but they certainly got done, didn't they? I wonder if their day really is over.

Beattie's a very smart pollie, so I hope he can get it together. Health seems to be the big issue
there, but by NSW standards they're doing well in that area.

I also hope Labor can continue to take the states - even in NSW. It's so hard, because I loathed
Bob Carr and was prepared to accept Brogden even though I wouldn't vote for him, but now it's
turned on its head. Iemma is just a glove puppet for the NSW Right and totally inept, but Debnam
is a tool of the Christian Right and gives me the creeps. I think a lot of people feel that way,
and it may be the only thing that will keep NSW Labor in power.