John Howard is already scared...

[gemini_liberal]

Yesterday, he wasted no time whatsoever to condemn Rudd's election. Which is interesting for two reasons: Firstly it was done immediately, which to me shows a sign of desperation to get on top of this. Secondly, it was Howard himself that commented, and not one of his henchmen - which demonstrates how serious this is to them.

I am not kidding myself, this is certainly going to be an uphill fight, with Howard, his goons and the conservative media doing what they can to keep Howard in power. However, for once I feel like victory is a real possibility. I am also sensing a lot of new found euphoria amongst people, one that I don't recall at all before - even when Latham was nominated.

This should be a very interesting summer...

[Matilda]

1. I think Parliament will be worth watching again.

Rudd asked all Labor's questions during Question Time, and every one was about the economy - such
as how come we have a resources boom and a trade deficit at the same time?

It was Howard who was droning and stumbling, and Rudd who was very strong and in control.

The best Question Time for Labor since Keating.

[Matilda]

2. Another "white powder" scare today.

"Security officials have given Parliament House in Canberra the all-clear after the discovery of white powder forced parts of it to be evacuated.

Authorities said the substance sent to building by mail was harmless.

Parts of the ministerial wing near the Prime Minister's courtyard were evacuated this morning along with the Foreign Minister's office.

There was a similar scare at John Howard's Sydney office today."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/general/pollies-safe-after-scare/2006/12/21/1166290665090.html


Huh! Are we supposed to feel concerned? He's tried this one once too often. It's not white powder
he's worried about, it's Kevin Rudd. Has he ever heard the story of the boy who cried wolf?

[BorisTheBlade]

3. Green

I'l be voting green this year

[Matilda]

4. Rudd is climbing in the polls.

Newsweek poll released today shows that Labor's Primary vote is now at 44%, with the Coalition at
34% (the 2004 election had Coalition at 46.7%, Labor 37.6%).

Two-party preferred (after preferences have been distributed) has Labor at 55%, Coalition 45%.

And as preferred Leader, Rudd is now at 39%, compared with Howard at 41% (when Rudd was first
elected as Labor leader in December, the figures were Rudd 36%, Howard 39%). The significance lies
in the comparison with Beazley as preferred leader in November last year - 25% to Howard's 55%.

http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=latest&state=Any&mode=file&page=Search


Rudd is going to release his statement on Education today, promising a complete overhaul of Federal
Government funding.

"What I'm arguing is that under Mr Howard, too much reliance is being placed on the resources boom, that boom will come to an end.

"We don't want to end up as China's quarry and Japan's beach.

"What I'm putting forward is an approach to education where we have a vision for our country, whereby Australia becomes the best trained workforce, the most educated economy in the world."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1831699.htm


The downgrading of our universities concerns all educators, students and parents (yes, it was started
by the awful John Dawkins under Hawke and Keating) and I think a lot of people are going to be paying
attention to Rudd today.

"We don't want to end up as China's quarry and Japan's beach" - that's good!


Edited to add Newspoll link

[gemini_liberal]

5. While it's good to see Howard tanking in the polls,

I am worried about the next wave of dirt that's gonna come from the scum government. Like a cornered rat, Howard's henchmen are gonna dig up any shit they can get on him, no matter how irrelevant.

"When we were 6, Kevin Rudd pushed me off the swing set at the play ground... IS THIS THE MAN YOU WANT RUNNING THE COUNTRY? VOTE LIBERAL!"

[Matilda]

6. I don't doubt the Libs will do their best to find something

to pin on Rudd. I think his biggest problem is that if anything he comes across as a bit prissy
at times - it's certainly hard to imagine that he would ever have thrown punches or had raunchy
parties a la Mark Latham.

They're trying with Gillard of course - the veiled slurs about her not being married or having
children, and having an un-lived in kitchen - if that's the best they can do, I think she'll survive.
The great thing is, she really doesn't seem to care - she's chosen her course, and she's not
pandering to anybody.

I was very interested to read in an interview with Kim Beazley in the Herald on Saturday that before
the leadership spill, Beazley's camp knew that Gillard could count on about 30 Caucus votes, and
Rudd on maximum 19, with Beazley in between. I never dreamed that Gillard was actually the front
runner. Beazley's people thought that in a three-way contest, Rudd would be out on the first ballot,
and his votes would then go to Beazley, because they're both from the Right. It was only when Rudd
and Gillard joined forces that Beazley knew he was done.

I wonder how many people will vote for Rudd with their eyes really on Gillard as future leader?

[gemini_liberal]

8. Partnerships

One thing the ALP has been lacking in the last decade is a clear line of succession. While it is a double edge sword, people do like to elect teams where the successor is obvious - a President/Vice President system if you will. It worked for Hawke and Keating, Howard and Costello, heck it even worked in the UK with Blair and Brown. This is one of the reasons I believe this ticket would work.

I also make no secret that I am a Gillard supporter and while naturally I would prefer to see her as leader, pragmatically speaking this is the best chance at making it happen, as plenty on the right are looking at Wayne Swan and Stephen Smith as future leaders if Rudd fails.

Also, I think the attacks on Gillard are having the opposite effect than intended. It makes her seem more and more like a real person and not just a stage managed politician. The folks who are getting their pants in a wad are solidly in Howard's base anyway.

My biggest problem with Rudd (despite his rightward shifting of policies) is he seems to be too cautious and running on the platform of running the store more efficiently, rather than positively changing things. However, I do confess his education plan has warmed me up to him a little more.

Interesting to also note that while the ALP's 2 Party Preferred vote remains steadily high in the polls, their primary vote is down. This hopefully signals a high 3rd party vote this year (hopefully to the Greens)

[Matilda]

7. How about Howard's Cabinet reshuffle?

Dumping Amanda Vanstone for Kevin Andrews is a bit surprising - he's such a dork, and clearly didn't
handle IR well, which is why Joe Hockey now has that portfolio. All the political writers thought
he'd go, but into Immigration, which is such a sensitive portfolio? Looks a bit as though Amanda
is being made to carry the can for the stuffups which were actually mostly Ruddock's responsibility.
She's very cut up, and I think Howard might have made an enemy there.

[gemini_liberal]

9. He basically wants a heartless prick in her place.

Vanstone is a "small l" liberal and behind the scenes she is very sympathetic. Howard has never really liked her politics, but has tolerated her to please the Liberal factions. However, with the elevation of Turnbull to cabinet, Howard now has his token "small l" with him instead. What's better for Howard is Turnbull will completely toe the line, because he seriously sees himself as Prime Minister in the future. It's an ideological coup.

As for the implication on the party, first coercing Hill to quit the Senate and now pushing Vanstone to the edge is not going to help them one bit in SA - a state known for rejecting Liberals when they become too right wing...

[Esra Star]

10. You hold your friends close and your enemies even closer.

Malcolm Turnbull is in parliament to get the top job and John knows it.
Should be interesting.

[gemini_liberal]

11. Actually, strategically speaking

The Liberal Party'd do well to oust Howard and elect him. Nothing would blur the line between Labor and the Liberals more, creating a sense of indifference among the electorate...

[Esra Star]

12. Malcolm will bide his time. He has probably got his

tape measure on Kevin Rudd right now.

[gemini_liberal]

13. Yes

However, if he doesn't get his foot in the door within the next few years, he runs the risk of being another flash in the pan - or worse yet, be a neutered animal like Costello...

[Esra Star]

14. I think Labor has a really good chance of winning this year.

Howard is past his "use by" date, and I think enough
Australians will want to turf the lying bastard this time.

[Matilda]

15. Howard's promotion of Turnbull is a bit of a surprise

in that he must know how ambitious the man is, and he's handing him the ladder.

Maybe his dislike of Costello is the real driver.

[Matilda]

16. I see your point about Vanstone's style.

The two women left in Cabinet, Bishop and Coonan, are bloodless in the style of Ruddock - females
both, but not women.

Today's talk is of a diplomatic posting for Amanda, to London or Paris - that would certainly be more
fun than being a backbencher in a dying government.