Election Timeline?

[Matilda]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I think Howard will call the election for August.

The Australian Electoral Commission is planning an ad campaign to start April or May, reminding
people to be sure they're registered to vote (Howard has changed the rules, so that from the day he
calls the election, the electoral rolls are closed). The campaign will run for maximum one month,
so it will close at the latest in June.

The Electoral Commission would only do this on the nod from Howard, and it doesn't make sense to run
the ads four or five months away from the election, so I'm betting on an election earlier than the
October date that has been predicted.

Parliament sits in June, rising on the 21st, and I'm taking a bet that Howard will call the election
on that date. That gives him minimum 33, maximum 68 days until polling day. The first date he's
able to call a half-Senate election is August 4th, and that's just over the 33 days. A 68-day time
frame gives us August 25th, so I'm taking a bet that it will be August.

The pork-barelling has started already - money for the aged, rail and road infrastructure, and
education.

And the longer he waits, the more time he gives Kevin Rudd to get his message out.

[Esra Star]

1. August would be as good as any other time. I'm sure that the campaign

has already started. The media will start asking that stupid question.
The drums will start beating louder and then it will be on.
Based on Mr Howard's incredible luck with the Tampa and Latham and all,
I would not be surprised if this time something bad (for him) happens.
He seems to be trying to regain control of the agenda with beads of
sweat. Mr Rudd is focused and I think the little red dot is between
those manicured eyebrows.
From here it's chess.

[gemini_liberal]

2. Yeah, I've been thinking August too

It all depends how much more momentum Rudd gets in the next few months and how confident he is, but yeah, August is my guess too...

[Aussie leftie]

3. Have you forgotten how much the sniveller loves the world stage

Think about it. If he wins, he still wont be PM for that much longer. He's already beginning to become unstuck. People are starting to realize that he's yesterdays man. APEC is coming to town. Do you honestly believe that he would risk not being PM when that happens?

[gemini_liberal]

4. No, I haven't forgotten

While you make a good point there. Howard is arrogant enough to believe he can win this thing, and I don't think he wants his closeness to Bush to be highlighted by the APEC meeting leading to the election. That's why I think he wants to do it before APEC, which'll probably mean August as the OP says...