So, what's the feeling? Are we daring to believe that the voting

[Esra Star]

populous will turf the "old and tricky" prick?
It seems that everything that they do, blows back in their faces.
It is still a worry, though, that apparently a majority consider
Howard to be better on security.
That seems to be the only thing.
Unfortunately, that means that a security trick is now front and centre.
What are the possibilities?

[Matilda]

1. I strongly suspect that the Haneef farce was set up

as a forerunner to the new anti-terrorism laws. The fact that the Haneef case has backfired hasn't
made any difference to Howard but it remains to be seen what Labor will have to say. I don't think
Rudd would dare to play down the dangers to national security, but it would be good if some of the
more outrageous assaults on our liberty can be at least watered down.

I dare to hope that Rudd will just get over the line, although I don't think it will be the landslide
that the polls are telling us, more's the pity. But I mix mostly with left-wingers in my work; Mr
Matilda mixes with more right-wingers at work than I do, and he thinks Howard will just squeak in.
Either way, Howard's finished, but I dream of him going down in a huge electoral defeat and being
unceremoniously kicked out by his party. And I want to see Janette's face when it happens.

I can dream, can't I?

[Esra Star]

2. Yes, we can bask prematurely in some sort of victory.

As if on cue, the little bastard has decided to defend democracy here in Queensland.
The opportunistic pos will probably get clobbered again. He's desperate.
I think he will just try scare tactics from here on in.

[Matilda]

3. I'm beginning to wonder if Howard is going stark, staring bonkers.

It's our money he's throwing desperately at individual electorates, all the while claiming to be the
best economic manager. And after today's interest rate rise, there was Mal Brough shrieking that it
would have been even worse under Labor - this is truly a pathetic performance by any standards.

I'd like to think the electorate can see through all this, but then I recall that they were stupid
in 2001, and even more stupid in 2004, and I wouldn't like to bet on anything this time around.

[Esra Star]

4. Well, the electorate is a gutless, heartless, soulless mob, but

even they have a limit.
Old tricky's goin down.
:popcorn:

[Matilda]

5. You will enjoy this ...

[Esra Star]

6. I remember clearly when John Howard was doing his best

impersonation of chicken little. Now the axe is in the other's hands.
The fact that he has been in the big house since 1975 means he should have an unbearable baggage load.
Not to mention Ruddock, with all the personality of a dog's turd, just after you realise you stepped in it.
Downer is still looking for WMD. I hope the press quiz him as to whether he's got any leads.
Costello thinks he has personally created all our wealth. What a dickwit. Bob Ellis should have done better.
Brough has the zeal of a southern baptist. I don't think he even knows he's in charge of stealing native title back yet.
Kevin Andrews......the list goes on.....
November
Bring it on.

[Matilda]

7. Peter Beattie last night in interview gave October 6th.

Of course, he's not in the PM's confidence (!), but it seems that senior Libs now want Howard to
get it over with. The longer he waits, the more things are going wrong. Rudd's honeymoon has been
going on since December, and it isn't over yet - not what they expected at all.

[Esra Star]

8. Do you mean August 6th?

I don't want to get ahead of myself here, but I think it's the real deal.
I get that mostly from the Libs. They're sweating.
The icing would be if "old & tricky" took a long walk on a short jetty.

[Matilda]

9. The lead time to an election from the date it's called

is a minimum of 33 and a maximum of 68 days after the Parliament is dissolved. It appears that the
pressure is one Howard to announce the election in September, for an early October date. He wanted
to go as long as possible into the term (he has until January), but the things are so bad the Libs
want to go sooner rather than later.

It puts Howard in a very awkward spot - it means that he would have to announce the election before
the APEC conference, and that's going to make him a lame duck leader at a time when he wants to be
posing as a world leader. But with things going from bad to worse, it could mean the difference
between a tight election or a landslide for Labor. So he might want to hold off until after APEC,
but it doesn't seem as if he can put it off much longer than that.

[Esra Star]

10. Sorry, I thought you were telling me the date of the Beattie interview.

I get it now, Beattie reckons October. I guess the press will just start that annoying
"will he/won't he call it" dance they do.
:popcorn:

[SweetLeftFoot]

11. The real question

Is how Rudd will be any different on what matters.

Still, he has got his official Murdoch seal of approval so he should win.

[Matilda]

12. Not different enough, if this week is anything to go by.

Two important bills went through Parliament this week - the Northern
Territory Takeover Bill (my title), and the Crime Legislation Amendment
Bill (the one that allows the police to raid your house while you're not
there and not have to inform you for six months). Not a peep out of
Labor about either.

Of course they don't have the numbers in the Lower House, and would need
the support of Joyce and Fielding in the Senate to defeat any
legislation, and that was never likely on these two bills, but Labor
didn't even go down fighting.

Both bills are morally objectionable, both are overkill, and both erode
our rights and freedom. Both make the state more than ever Big Brother,
and yet Labor rolled over without a squeak in protest.

Of course, I want Howard to go, and only Rudd can do it, but I hope and
pray for a Greens-dominated Senate after the election, because otherwise
we're lost.

[SweetLeftFoot]

13. Greens

Even though I don't think the Aussie Greens are as politically evolved as some other Green movements, I agree we need them having the balance of power in the Senate.

But do enough seats go up this time round?

[Matilda]

14. It will probably come down to preferences.

According to all the experts, it's impossible for Labor to win a working
Senate majority this time around, but if they give preferences to the
Greens, they have a chance of breaking the Coalition's control (which
they have courtesy of Steve Fielding, who won on Labor preferences).

I haven't yet found an unbiased look at all the possible shifts that
could take place - Andrew Green from the ABC is always very good, but
he doesn't seem to have put up anything yet.

The Democrats holding on wouldn't be all bad, as they generally tend to
vote more to the left these days, but ever since Meg Lees gave us the
GST, they've been out of favour. I would think Andrew Bartlett would
hold his seat, but I know nothing about who is standing to replace
Natasha Stott-Despoja, and what his/her chances would be. There are
other new Democrat candidates standing in other states, but I don't
know how they will go.

Unfortunately, no matter what happens, the Coalition will still control
the Senate until July 2008.