Predictions for outcome of election

[anakie]

Hi all, anyone want to put an early prediction of the result in?

Mine - the coallition to be returned with a margin of 2; and the Senate having a hung balance between Family First and the Greens.


I dont want that, and I hope I am wrong, but I think 16 seats will be a big hurdle for Kev07 to overcome. Howard and Costello will chip away at Labor with all the negativism they can muster and some of this will stick with the electorate. Plus, simply by his rat cunningness, I have a nagging feeling Howard will pull something out of the bag.

Ideally of course, I would like to see the Lib/Nats annilihated and Howard lose his seat and the Greens get the balance in the Senate but the realist in me says otherwise.


Peace

[Matilda]

1. We could easily end up with a hung Parliament.

The current swing to Labor is 7%, and has been all year. Given a 3% margin of error, any seat
currently held with a majority of 4% or lower could change hands. With changed electoral
boundaries, the Coalition is currently holding exactly 14 seats by 4% or less. If they all went
to Labor, we'd have a hung Parliament. And the 15th most marginal seat? Bennelong, with a margin
of 4.3%.

My gut feeling (biased, of course) is that Labor will win, but not by the landslide that current
polls show. I'm afraid that in the end, too many people will vote for their tax cuts and any other
rabbits that Howard pulls out of his election hat. But I'm still trawling through figures to back
up my feelings.

The Senate? Fielding isn't up for re-election, so yes, he's going to be important. The Coalition
hold too many seats for Labor to do more than even the score, so Greens will be vital. It may come
down to what deals Labor does with its preferences, as it was thanks to them that Steve Fielding
got over the line although he had only 1% of the primary vote, compared to the Greens' David
(Ransome?) who got 3%. If Labor does the right thing and preferences the Greens, that could help the
Greens win at least one more seat, perhaps even two. But you can't count on Sussex Street to do the
right thing.

[PinkUnicorn]

2. None really

No argument that quite a few people will whore themselves out for a quickie with the tax cuts (mostly those too stupid to understand what 'inflation' means).

But I don't think that unless Howard really pulls a giant rabbit out of his arse that the Libs would return. At the moment it is pretty obvious that they are desperate - the hospital stunt didn't work, the 'scary immigrants' didn't work, smear didn't work, and the tax cuts seem to have a lukewarm reception at best - they have pretty much exhausted their standard barrel of tactics.

On the downside Rudd just seems to be mainly coasting along, letting Howard self-destruct as opposed to offering an alternative which I suspect will show a large increase in donkey votes or 'Anyone but Howard' votes. At this point I suspect it will come strongly down to prefernce votes. And this is where Labor would really come unstuck judging by past experience.

What would be interesting is if the Liberals did get back in, but Jackboot Johnny was turfed out on his arse. The Liberals would pretty much implode.

And the other catch if Labor wins things are not so great for the economy now as the Liberals like to say. Company debt is astronomical, the US economy going down the tubes means the $A goes up, which means China can't buy as much "dirt & rocks" which is pretty much the sole export market, non existant agriculture means more imports. Inflation is high, interest rates are going up again, and we have Johnny and Co throwing money around like it's going out of fashion. If the Libs/Nats manage to jump ship before the devil calls his due then they can once again say it was all Labors fault.

[Matilda]

4. Howard really put his foot in it yesterday,

with his comments about 16 years of economic growth. That backs up Rudd's contention that the
strong economy began under Labor, and is largely due to the resources boom and very little with
Howard's economic management.

And while Howard's promising tax cuts, he hasn't said that the GST wouldn't rise - money for health,
education, and welfare has to come from somewhere, and if he erodes the income tax base, he'll have
to find it somewhere else. That's assuming, of course, that tax cuts are a core promise, not a non-
core promise.

[Esra Star]

3. Too early to call.

If George Fuckwit invades something, it will scare the horses.
Having said that, I think Howard's time has passed.
Costello is trying very hard not to smirk, and is looking dorkier than ever.