one week to go

[anakie]

One week to go. Rudd still in front and the polls are effectively saying the same thing all year - around 8% swing to Labor.

Will there be a Tampa?, kids overboard? something else? or can the rodent scrape in with a minority of the popular vote. As someone who is pessimistic by nature I still think Howard may scrape back in. The blogosphere is almost unanimous in their predictions of a Labor win, and even the Australian may be softening it's pro-Howard (not Pru Howard) approach.

Ideally the best result will be a Rudd landslide, Howard losing his seat and the Greens getting the outright balance of power in the Senate.

Peace

[Matilda]

1. I remain hopeful that Rudd will do it.

But I don't expect the kind of numbers suggested by the polls; it will
be very close.

He's old, he's out of touch, he's a proven liar, he has no new ideas,
and all but the deliberately blind can see that for themselves. And how
sweet it would be if he lost his own seat - I'd love to see Janette's
face if that happens.

Edit to Add: Link to Antony Green's excellent guide to Senate
Candidates, state by state. In NSW, Victoria, and Queensland, with
their big fields of candidates, preferences could get very complicated,
and strange things could happen.

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/senatetickets.htm

[Esra Star]

2. Last night on "Lateline" Antony Green all but called the election.

He was laughing at the possibility of the polls being wrong enough for long enough
to give the Libs a win.
Four days out, I would say it would have to be a "Bali event" in Sydney to change it.
The interest now is if our POS PM gets his arse kicked by Maxine.
:popcorn:

edit:capitalised lateline

[Matilda]

3. Yes - he couldn't recall when polls had been so consistent for so long.

I also hope to see Malcolm Turnbull go, although I know he'll find a safe seat somewhere for the
next election. The guy has no principles at all, he's just totally into power. We know he's a
Republican, but he became a born-again monarchist to win favour with Howard. He has supposedly
said privately that he's opposted to the Gunns pulp mill being built on the Tamar, yet he didn't
have the guts to oppose Howard on it. If he'd resigned his portfolio on principle, he might have
earned enough brownie points to keep his seat safe.

The Libs have been so gutless, supporting every ugly thing he's done, covering up and lying for him,
and now they're going down with him.

Hallelujah!

[Violet_Crumble]

4. Do you think there's a chance the Greens could get the balance of power in the Senate?

Both ACT senators are up for re-election, and there's been a lot of tv advertising about how the Greens, the Dems and the ALP are giving their preferences to each other. The ACT has always been predictable and had one ALP and one Liberal senator, but there have been a few times that the Liberal one hasn't reached the quota and it's been preferences that's gotten them over the line. Kerrie Tucker is running again, and when even my politically ignorant mother can work out that strategically it's better to vote Green in the Senate (despite her belief that the Greens are a bunch of commies out to destroy the ALP) and help get rid of Garry Humphries, then I'm holding some hope that there might be one less Liberal senator and one more Green one...

[Matilda]

5. I think they could,

if people are seriously concerned about climate change. I think that's the big issue that will
affect the Green vote, and I hope people won't allow other aspects of their platform to put them off.
(Yes, the commie/tree-hugging/gay marriage image).

Political commentators also expect the Democrats to be wiped out at this election - will their former
votes go to the Greens? Although the Dems traditionally were disaffected Liberals, they've attracted
votes from many people who are slightly left of centre, so I hope that perhaps those people would
switch to the Greens, rather than to the fringe parties, which seem to attract more of the loony-
right.

I hope the Greens' Victorian candidate, Richard di Natale, can win a seat - the Greens polled 8.8%
in 2004, but Steve Fielding got the seat in spite of less than 2% of the vote, thanks to Labor's
dirty deal on preferences with FF. Victorians obviously would prefer a Green Senator, so I hope
this time they get one, as Labor are doing the right thing this time.

[Andrushka]

6. I hope he does well, too

After all, I gave the bloke some of my hard-earned a few weeks back! ;-) As I wrote in another thread, I am off the roll (been away too long) but I am damned if I will sit on my bum and see The Greens shafted again.

What I am really looking forward to is the outcome in my former seat and childhood home, Deakin (in Victoria). It's been blue as long as I can remember, but if if were ever to swing in Labour's direction, this is certainly the election for it.

I certainly hope that all Aussie DUers will be here in a couple of day's time having a virtual piss-up! :party: :toast: If di Natale gets in, I will be buying!!