Alcopops - Double Dissolution Trigger?

[Matilda]

Antony Green (ABC elections expert) believes that Kevin Rudd is using the Alcopops tax bill as a trigger for a
double dissolution. In the grand scheme of politics, Alcopops is way down on the list in terms of importance,
but the Coalition is also threatening to block both the CPRS and the Budget, which leaves Rudd as a leader
without power. But putting Alcopops back on the table could give him the trigger he needs to clear the decks
and start over.

It makes sense to me - I think the Budget was designed for an election win, because it causes very little pain at
a time when pain was expected. Win an election, then pass a mini-budget that does what this one should have done.
Rudd will then have another three years to try to put things right.

An early election would almost certainly increase Labor's numbers in the Senate, and possibly even in the Lower
House as well. And it would certainly get rid of the odious Steve Fielding, who shouldn't even be there.

Antony Green explains the complex rules regarding election timing on his blog, and it's well worth reading:

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/05/by-announcing-i.html

[gemini_liberal]

1. I've predicted it for months.

Rudd wants an easier Senate to work with. Three fresh years will also benefit him, and get the government over the "first term" stigma.

The Opposition are in a bad position. They know they can't win an election at the moment. They know that they'll lose a few Senate seats in a double-dissolution and will probably be murdered in the House election. You can hear the fear in Turnbull's voice. They do not want this. However, they've painted themselves as the last line of defence against the "evil" Rudd Government and, unfortunately for them, it means they have to actually stand up against the government. Rock and a hard place there.

I don't quite know if it would be the end of Senator Fielding as a double-dissolution election means the states vote for 12 Senators at once, rather than the normal 6. Thus the quota for getting elected will be much lower. However, Fielding's influence in the Senate will likely disappear, if reelected.

The Greens will definitely benefit from a double dissolution, as will Labor (smaller quotas mean it is easier to break the 6-6 stalemate that the states usually experience.)

As for Nick Xenephon, he is certain to win re-election. Thing is, he might drag someone up with him. Unfortunately, his running mates aren't always the best (he is a populist who doesn't factor in ideology.) His awful #2 in 2006, Ann Bressington, got elected on his overflow and is a nasty conservative who hates everything...

Still, certainly update your electoral details in the next couple of months if necessary. I am confident we'll be going to the polls this year.

[Esra Star]

3. I would prefer that the Greens have the balance in the Senate.

They are adept at negotiation. They are also predictable.
This means that Labor can have it both ways.
They can take a relatively conservative position and then be "forced" to move it left
to get it thru the senate. Genius I tells ya, pure genius

[Esra Star]

2. It is always good politics to have a couple of triggers

in the arsenal. Malcolm knows he's a dead duck if they go to the polls.
So I think we may go to term.
If it gets down to testosterone at ten paces, then it will be on. Kevvy won't back down.
I think the game is to beat Smirkboy in the subsequent election. That will be the
interesting one.