What Will Save Kevin Rudd?

[Matilda]

I've been desperately thinking this week of what Kevin Rudd can do to save himself, Labor, and the country from Tony Abbott. And lo, this article appeared in the ABC's blog section, The Drum. It's amusing, but with a very real sense of panic underlying it – panic I'm sure we're all beginning to feel.

Just what can Kevin Rudd do to save us all from The Unthinkable?

"Stuff that might save Kevin Rudd ... it's time we started making a list.

Or not. You might not think this is a task worth the undertaking ... on the available evidence this is increasingly likely. A choice is implied, one that will probably come down to personal taste or some esoteric political preference. So let's just call this an academic exercise. A parlour game if you will."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/07/2920647.htm?site=thedrum

[Esra Star]

1. I think that most of what we are getting at the moment is

media lensing.
We know that the Murdoch press wants the conservatives back.
The polls seem to be reflecting what the papers want to report. When the voters have to make a stark choice, that is when the election is called, more sober judgments will be made.

[fehowarth]

2. I think that most of what we are getting at the moment is

Could not agree more.

[fehowarth]

3. I think that most of what we are getting at the moment is

Could not agree more.

[fehowarth]

4. I think that most of what we are getting at the moment is

Could not agree more.

[Matilda]

5. The Nielsen Poll, run by Fairfax, is generally regarded as more reliable than Newspoll.

Newspoll focussed on the question of the proposed minerals tax, and I don't really believe that people in states other than W.A. and Queensland will base their vote on this issue, because it's not going to affect them personally.

It's hard not to think that it was the dropping of the ETS proposal, not just now but for the second term, that has done Rudd in; otherwise, votes would not be bleeding from Labor to the Greens at the rate they are (70%).

Rudd is still ahead as preferred leader, and that must worry the Coalition, because when it comes to actually ticking the boxes, that will have a big influence. People will put their emotions behind them, and think more logically about who they really want to see in charge, and that will also result in a loss of potential votes for the Greens, who always poll better between elections than they ever do on the day. I think a lot of conservative voters are also worried about Abbott and that may also translate into them giving Rudd another go. But it will be very, very tight.

And it really shouldn't be like this – until the announcement about dropping the ETS, Labor looked set to win about the same number of seats as 2007, and probably pick up one extra in the Senate. That isn't going to happen now.

[gemini_liberal]

6. Answer: democracy

Don't worry too much. This is a bad poll, but it doesn't match the trend of any of the other polls. It's probably a rogue - it may not be, I know, but it seems to be. If anything, this poll is good as it will put some fire under the Laborites' bottoms.

Y'see the polls are oscillating back and forth, which means any gains Abbott is making is paper thin (much like Latham's gains were.) Not to say that they are a dead cert to return to the government, but the opposition carrying on like they've already won, even though all they are doing is negative campaigning against the government, is not going to help Abbott become PM. I saw this in 2004 with us, this time it is happening with them.

However, if scary polls keep popping up like this, The Boltscum's message that Abbott is a winner will resonate more and more with the voter. In short, if the voter perceives that Abbott can win, then he will.

As much as I hate to say this, it's time for the government to go completely negative on Abbott. Show what an unhinged extremist he is. Show the people everytime he has opened his mouth and made a dick of himself (trust me, there are plenty of those moments.) Just remind voters that, while Rudd ain't perfect and had spent most of his first term preventing Australia from going into recession (while the Right spent most of their time acting like spoiled little children and some even denying the GFC actually existed) at the expense of reform, he is miles, no light years (heck, even parsecs) ahead of what kind of government we would expect from the Abbott nightmare.

[Matilda]

7. I don't think a negative campaign against Abbott will work.

For one thing, most people do already know that Abbott's a nutter, even a lot of conservatives - they don't like Rudd, but they're scared of Abbott too. The problem is that the polls are not for Abbott; they're against Rudd. It happened from the moment he dropped all consideration of any carbon tax – after all his passionate rhetoric it was a slap in the face for voters, and they clearly haven't forgiven him.

So the only thing that can resurrect Rudd is for him to do something positive to win back those voters, rather than trying to run a negative campaign against Abbott. He's trying with the mining tax, but it's not working for him, and it isn't going to work. People are clearly telling him he can't win them back with cash offers – they want something to be done about dealing with climate change.

In itself this is heartening, because the MSM have tried very hard to tell everybody that climate change is bunk, and no longer an issue. The voters are saying yes, it is an issue.

It's the one issue that Abbott can't possibly campaign on, and one where Rudd can get some traction. If he were to announce that Labor would adopt a carbon tax along the lines of that proposed by the Greens, to stay in place until the expiration of Kyoto, he might pick up a few vital percentage points. Not everybody would believe him now, but at least there'd be some hope. And the truth is, whoever wins power is going to have to deal with the Greens, so why not start now?

[depakid]

8. Unfortunately, the dynamics had become such that nothing would

which is one reason why I didn't post in this forum for awhile.

[gemini_liberal]

9. In the end the internal polling became too terrible

Rudd had no chance. As Machiavellian as it sounds, Labor need to win this election.

We can't let Abbott become PM.

[depakid]

10. Rudd had become a caricature and people weren't listening any longer

His tendency as a technocrat was also to talk in too much extraneous detail and in procedural justification.

Some months back for example, he was doing Q & A with Uni students going on about the importance of evidence based policy- and I found myself thinking, these students are doubtlessly aware of Conroy's internet policy which is anything but evidence based.

I agree that the election's too important- and things couldn't continue as they'd been going.