New poll shows record Greens vote in Victoria

[depakid]

ELEANOR HALL: When Victorians go to the polls next month, the Greens could be the big winners.

According to the latest Newspoll figures, one in five Victorians indicated they'll vote Green, taking the party's vote to 19 per cent.

And the Victorian Liberal Party is refusing to rule out preferencing the Greens in inner Melbourne and that alone could see the election of four Greens MPs.

In Melbourne, Rachel Carbonell reports.

RACHAEL CARBONELL: It's just under a month until the Victorian state election and if the latest Newspoll is right more Victorians than ever before will be giving their vote to the Greens.

The ABC's election analyst Antony Green says the jump in the Greens vote is significant.

ANTONY GREEN: That's a near doubling of their vote since the last election though I have seen a tendency in recent years for polls to slightly overestimate the Green votes. But it would still be significantly up on the last election.

RACHAEL CARBONELL: That means the Greens may be in contention not just for four inner city Melbourne seats, now often referred to as Labor/Green marginal seats, but may do better than the two major parties in some other seats too.

ANTONY GREEN: Well it'll greatly increase the possibility of the Greens winning seats at the general election. There's four seats where the Greens have finished second to Labor at the last two elections.

This poll would indicate there's a strong chance of winning at least three of those seats. And there'd be the possibility that the Greens would finish ahead of either Labor or the Liberal Party in several other seats.

RACHAEL CARBONELL: The Greens chances winning seats will be boosted substantially if they receive Liberal Party preferences.

Greens party Leader Bob Brown says Liberal preferences will be important. But many Labor and Liberal voters will preference the Greens regardless of what the how to vote cards say.

BOB BROWN: Well obviously the Liberal Party preferences are crucial. But so it is with many Liberal voters who will be looking to give their preferences in any case to the Greens ahead of the Brumby Labor Party.

It's simply a recognition by Liberal voters as with Labor voters that the Greens have a, not just an attractiveness now but are real players.

More: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3050644.htm

[Matilda]

1. Perhaps people are realising that power-sharing isn't a bad thing.

We're certainly seeing some action federally, and the Greens vote looks like being significant in Victoria. I like it when the smaller players become significant.

Antony Green has an in-depth analysis of how the vote in Victoria could pan out here:

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/10/greens-set-for-significant-gains-at-victorian-election.html

[Al Jilwah]

2. Did you know

That Kroger doesn't carry frozen bread?

[Matilda]

3. The two big parties are running scared of the Greens.

The Libs in Victoria have decided to preference Labor rather than the Greens in Victoria, which has pulled the rug from under the Greens.

According to Antony Green, this will destroy the hopes of the Greens to take four inner-city seats from Labor.

"The Liberal decision to preference against the Greens in all electorates is an in-principle decision which will deliver Labor the four inner-city seats where they are under challenge from the Greens," he said.

"Even if the Liberals don't campaign strongly there will be little flow of preferences to the Greens and certainly not enough to defeat Labor in those inner-city seats."


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/15/3066007.htm


He seems to discount the possibility that people will make up their own minds and preference the Greens anyway. I'd like to think he might be wrong on this one.