NBC Makes Unprecedented Downward Correction in Latino Support for Bush

[Rose Siding]

for those who don't keep an eye on the LBN forum (posted by rabid_nerd)...

18-point Margin of Victory for Democrat Kerry Among Hispanics Doubles Previous NBC Estimates; Numbers Affirm WCVI Criticism of National Exit Poll Figures

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- In a stunning admission, an elections manager for NBC News said national news organizations overestimated President George W. Bush's support among Latino voters, downwardly revising its estimated support for President Bush to 40 percent from 44 percent among Hispanics, and increasing challenger John Kerry's support among Hispanics to 58 percent from 53 percent. The revision doubles Kerry's margin of victory among Hispanic voters from 9 to 18 percent. Ana Maria Arumi, the NBC elections manager also revised NBC's estimate for Hispanic support for Bush in Texas, revising a reported 18-point lead for Bush to a 2-point win for Kerry among Hispanics, a remarkable 20-point turnaround from figures reported on election night.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041203/nyf044_1.html

[Broken Acorn]

1. There's your smoking gun

Looks like the exit polls were right and the results wrong.

Hmmm.

[bemis12]

7. Not

It was the exit polls that incorrectly showed Bush having more Latino support. This does not reflect well on the exit polls.

"But I repeat, NBC has set an example for network poll integrity by taking a giant step away from the Edison International/Mitofsky election results, and toward WCVI's findings."

[sabra]

8. I was curious about that too n/t

[Dolphyn]

12. Which exit polls?

But WHICH exit polls that incorrectly showed Bush having more Latino support? The raw exit poll data, or the later results that were doctored to match the official vote tallies?

[Helga Scow Stern]

21. NBC is spinning for WH by implying that the exit polls compared were

not the cooked ones. I think.

I am going to write to Antonio Gonzalez, head of WCVI, and find out which exit polls they are using for comparison.

http://www.wcvi.org/press_room/press_releases/2004/us/nat_lat_poll_brief2004.html

He's going to be on Pacifica Radio later today (?), it says, so he must be not be a KoolAid head.

Edited to add the letter:

Dear Mr. Gonzalez, Mr. Garcia, and Mr. Aguinaga,

A lot of people have been saying that the Latino vote was not as high as reported, but you substantiate it the most clearly.

My question is, which exit poll are you using to compare against your results?

Was it the data put up before it was corrected, or that fixed to match the actual voting results, the final "official" exit poll?

It seems like NBC might be misusing your story to cast the validity of all exit polls into question, rather than presenting it in the more honest light that your results did not match the official, final exit polls, which as a matter of course, according to Mitofsky, are weighted to reflect the final, "actual" totals.

Would you please help me to understand this better?

Sincerely,
:+

[RubyCat]

25. If he used an exit poll other than Mitofsky's, then

ask him what were the results of that exit poll nationwide compared to Mitofsky's 4pm exit poll. I too am wary that GE's NBC may be spinning for the White House.

[Helga Scow Stern]

24. Yeah. KKKarl has been telling his Grand Dragon Governors

that the Man Date is based on winning the minority vote.

What? Didn't he know WCVI would also be polling, especially after 2000?

He'd better do his homeworkkk better next time. (Behind bars).

[goclark]

2. Huum, it is getting hot in here!

Fire, Fire!
What could casue them to see the light now,
The vote is already set in the minds of the people.

All the Republicans have one again used their "higher" Hispanic so called voters to scare the Democrats.

I didn't believe it for one minute.

[Chili]

3. WHOA...

Oh I hope I hope I hope this is just the beginning of the admissions... there's more to that.

*applauding NBC*

[Broken Acorn]

4. Next we're going to get Admissions about

1) how new voters came out in record for Kerry

2) Undecided trended strongly for Kerry

3) Evangelicals came out in the same % as 2000


This is all starting to point directly to ELECTION FRAUD.

[wiggs]

5. Indepents broke for Kerry too. nt

[goldengreek]

14. Ho hum. More proof of vote fraud.

Media collusion in said fraud as well. So DUers -- how does it feel being so amazing?

HOO-rah!

[Straight Shooter]

6. Many "unprecedented" factors at play in this tainted election

Now all we need to do is "unpresident" that moral leper bush.

[Broken Acorn]

9. Don't forget about the "unprecedented" use of

Computer Hacking involved in many states (not just Georgia in 2002).

[texpatriot2004]

29. Ain't it the truth. "Moral leper" I like that, I recently thought to

myself, self, B* is rather like a leper. Anyone who gets near him catches it. Ever notice?

[Helga Scow Stern]

31. Yeah. It's that coagulated Kool-Aid that turns into red stuff....

that just rubs off on anyone who gets too close.

[rainbow4321]

10. Texas Hispanics went for Kerry....

No shit, NBC news...is it any wonder why shrub felt a need to pad the Texas votes? OH, I forgot, YOU aren't covering that are you?? All you had to do was go to the TX SOS website to see the stats that show shrub's TX numbers might raise some concern amongst repukes.
Even WITH the padding shrub LOST Travis County, El Paso county, came "thisclose" <2%> to losing Dallas County <where a Hispanic female WON as county sheriff>, the Tex-Mex border was bright blue, and shrub got only like 55% in Harris County <where Houston is>. These blue areas can add up...you can't tell me that shrub didn't see these kind of numbers before the election and felt a need to nudge the state a little redder. Plus it would also help DeLay and Sessions, also. I think the next headline should be "NBC makes a sharp correction---Bush lost Nov 2nd and we didn't cover the fraud exposure that led to his demise".
Dumb fucks, dumb fucks, dumb fucks.

http://rawstory.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=114


The Raw Story12/3/2004
NBC makes sharp correction in Latino support for Bush, puts Kerry up in Texas

In a stunning turnaround, an elections manager for NBC News said news organizations overestimated President George W. Bush’s support among Latino voters, downwardly revising its polled support for Bush to 40 percent from 44 percent among Hispanics, and increasing challenger John Kerry’s support among Hispanics to 58 percent from 53 percent, a press release from a Hispanic thinktank reveals.

The revision doubles Kerry’s margin of victory among Hispanic voters from 9 to 18 percent, and suggests that Bush did not gain sizably in Latino support from 2000 to 2004.

NBC’s elections manager Ana Maria Arumialso revised NBC’s estimate for Hispanic support for Bush in Texas, changing a reported 18-point lead for Bush to a 2-point win for Kerry among Hispanics, a remarkable 20-point turnaround from figures reported election night

[Nederland]

11. Bullshit

I refuse to believe any result other than the 4pm exit poll results. I'm not going to believe exit polls from later that evening, exit polls revised weeks later, or the actual results. For me, its the 4pm exit poll, all day, all the time. NOthing else matters.

</sarcasm>

[Leilani]

13. This doesn't tell the entire story.

I watched the entire press conference on C-Span yesterday.

For NBC, Ana Maria Arumi was there, as was a person from the Velasquez (Institute?) & panel of people to discuss Hispanic votes.

True, NBC revised their numbers down, but Velaquez revised their numbers UP.

So the early polls were wrong all around.

What was more interesting, was the internal breakdown: how people voted, why, & where.

For instance, 1/3 of Hispanics are Protestant...they broke for Bush, whereas Kerry won among Catholics.

Hispanics in urban areas voted Kerry; those in rural areas voted Bush.

If you want the entire press conference try C-Span.

[JD Lau]

16. Kick. This is interesting.

[goldengreek]

20. The article told us enough.

I work with an Hispanic Protestant and she was all about Bush. All we needed to know was Bush got the same Hispanic support he got in 2000.

Interesting thing, the Protestant/Catholic split. In Capital Karl Marx had a lot of nice things to say about the Catholic Church in the Middle Ages. But he hated Protestants! The philosophical split between Catholics and Protestants is also somewhat represented by the differing approaches to economics between Continental Europeans -- preeminently the French -- and the Anglo-Saxons in the English speaking countries.

[Helga Scow Stern]

22. WCVI Did Not Revise Their Numbers Up for Klanhouse....

According to this from their website:

BACKGROUND: The William C. Velasquez Institute conducted a national exit survey of more than 1,100 Latino voters in 11 states across 49 precincts. Its findings included overwhelming support among the Latino community for democratic challenger John Kerry and a reduction in support for President George W. Bush from the 2000 presidential election. In the state of Florida, the Latino vote went decidedly for John Kerry, a 28-point swing from the 2000 election, when then governor Bush carried the Latino vote.
:toast:

These Latino pollsters rock!

Listen on NPR and KPFK (Pacifica) today.

[goldengreek]

23. Okay. Wait a minute.

How the hell did Bush win Florida?!

[Leilani]

26. Wait a second

I saw the entire press conference...

If you're talking about Florida, Kerry won the Hispanic vote, all on the panel agreed.

But it all depends on what statistics you're talking.

And Velasquez DID revise their numbers UP for a national result.

Also, what has not been mentioned is Hispanic voters, with the exception of Florida, (because Florida is complex) voted the way their regions voted.

For example: California is Dem, Hispanics voted Dem.

In New Mexico, which went for Bush & is more rural & Protestant, Hispanics went for Bush.

If you want to see trends, you need to look at internals, not simple numbers.

[RaulVB]

27. Careful with New Mexico

Many Democratic Hispanic voters in New Mexico were prevented from voting and not all the votes of those who could were counted.

Careful there...

New Mexico votes should be closely reviewed.

[Leilani]

28. Fine, that may be true,

but I'm only discussing the exit polls/panel of experts on Hispanic voting.

For those truly interested in an in-depth discussion, go to C-Span, & watch the video online.

[Hobbes199]

15. So now we know even less...

About where Bush got his votes... Not that we really thought it was that high anyway...

[Woo]

17. Someone...

Not me because I don't know anything about math -- needs to get out their slide rule and pencil and figure out how that would effect the results as it relates to Kerry and Bush...

Isn't that a worthwhile calculation -- because that might once again prove another case for fraud... where are all these votes for Bush coming from?

[goldengreek]

18. Wow. Mitofsky's really fucked himself over. (snicker)

But how could he ever know another organization would be doing exit polling?

HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!

I can only wonder why so many men like him get in line to help the Bushes out with their criminal schemes. They get fucked over every time.

[tinfoil_beret]

19. Then I know where they padded the numbers in Miami-Dade.

I've stared at the Miami-Dade canvas for the last two days trying to make sense of it. I added the party registration and racial demographics to the spreadsheet, and when you sort it descending by Hispanic the first few pages down to 75% Hispanic show 99 percent red with the majority of precincts voting for * at 60 to 70 percent.

I noticed a correlation between the African American voter registration in the precincts with high Hispanic ratios and the percentage voting for Bush. For the lower black ratios and higher Hispanic ratios in the same precinct you can expect a higher percentage to vote for *.

I assumed that these might represent enclaves of Cubans or Dominicans. I heard from someone I used to know, a black woman who lives in Miami, that either Cubans or Dominicans (I don't remember which) don't get along well with blacks. Since the news reported that * had a lot of support from Cubans, I assumed that these precincts might represent Cuban enclaves.

I also noticed that in precincts with fair ratios of both blacks and Hispanics, even relatively small black ratios, the pendulum swung the other way, going strongly for Kerry, and as African-American ratios went up, so did the percentages voting for Kerry. Also, for the precincts with higher African-American ratios the turnouts generally trended lower than other precincts. I hypothesize that the same thing that happened in Columbus, Ohio with the high voters-per-machine ratios affecting turnout also happened in Miami, but I don't have the machine distribution data for Miami-Dade to plug into my spreadsheet.

Regarding the high returns for * in the Hispanic enclaves, I conclude that these red precincts with unusually low black ratios and unusually high ratios of votes for * represent Cuban neighborhoods. That is, of course, if the news reports didn't fabricate this * support from the Cuban community. Otherwise, this explains where they flipped the votes in Miami.

[Helga Scow Stern]

30. Interesting. Maybe you could talk to these pollsters and see what they

think, assuming they aren't Kool-Aid stained.

They were involved in census and Latino redistricting plans in Florida, among other places, so they might be able to shed light on your theory.

There are contact numbers on the front of their webpage

http://www.wcvi.org/press_room/press_releases/2004/us/nat_lat_poll_brief2004.html

Contacts: Antonio Gonzalez
Zachary Gonzalez
Jeff Nicks
323.222.2217

emails:
[e-mail]; [e-mail]; [e-mail]

Let us know what you find out.