"New" voters in CA went for Bush 2 to 1? Are you kidding me?

[mountebank]

I determined this in the following way. I took totals from 2000 and 2004:

2000
Gore: 5,861,203
Bush: 4,567,429
Nader: 418,707
other 3rd party: 118,483

Total: 10,965,822

2004
Kerry: 6,701,514
Bush: 5,473,033
3rd party: 143,462

Total: 12,318,009

That means total new votes is: 1,352,187

How did the candidates do from 2000?
Kerry: +840,311
Bush: +905,604
3rd Party: -393,728

So let's apportion where these 3rd party votes migrated. I did it this way.
Votes that went to Kerry = Nader - Cobb = 378,334
Votes that went to Bush = Buchanan - Peroutka = 19,090

This roughly adds up to the loss of 3rd Party votes total. Now, let's use these totals to assess "new" votes (i.e. those that can't be accounted for by migration of 3rd Party votes).

Kerry: 840,311 - 378,334 = 461,977
Bush: 905,604 - 19,090 = 886,514


Is my logic accurate in how I accounted for third-party migration? If so, am I really supposed to believe that the totally new votes in California in 2004 broke for Bush by a margin of 2 to 1?

Wouldn't that be totally unprecedented given the fact that Bush didn't even campaign in California?

Talk to me. Where did my logic go awry?.....

[intheflow]

1. Improbable, but if so, there's only one explanation:

Ahrnold!

[RaulVB]

2. "Ahnold" is the wrong answer...

California is "democratic country."

The totals were manipulated, IMO.

[intheflow]

5. Please...

grow a sense of humor. I was being sarcastic. :)

[RaulVB]

11. Don't be so "jumpy..."

I was thinking out loud.:beer:

[intheflow]

26. I see your point.

And it's time for me to go to bed! :smoke:

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. There was some of that

and mardsen has pointed at it... and some of our more conservative counties were used to ahem, pad the popular vote

[UdoKier]

8. CA is socially liberal, but otherwise can go either way.

That's why you see Arnold winning so handily. If he had been anti-abortion and anti-gay, he would have lost.

I'm sorry, but aside from the Bay area and LA county, CA is not as dependably blue as Massachusetts. We need to work hard here and never take it for granted.

[mountebank]

20. Still, on a statewide basis, shouldn't new votes have at least gone

55/45 for Kerry? New voters were just as likely to appear in L.A. and San Francisco, and in fact more likely based on population, than in Siskiyou Co.

[UdoKier]

22. But the big population growth has been in Riverside, SD, & Bay Area 'burbs

San Francisco's population has been pretty static for a long time now.

Look, I'm no demographer, and your hypothesis may very well be true. I'm just looking at where I see the most cookie-cutter houses multipying right now, and it ain't SF, LA or Marin counties.

Maybe you should look into this on a county-by-county basis to get a better idea.

[mountebank]

24. It's a good point you make. There's definitely more info to be

gleaned from county by county analyses as opposed to the broad-brush approach, which can miss a lot.

[BlueCaliDem]

28. How Would It Then Explain, Why CA State Legislature is So...

...heavily Democratic, and that liberal democrat Barbara Boxer won the third most votes after B* and Kerry in this last election in the nation?

Also, don't forget that in 2000, California gave Al Gore an additional 250,000 votes that brought his popular vote tally up to 537,000.

Also, don't forget that in the 2003 CA Recall, 200,000 votes just plum disappeared! They were using those machines already in that tally, and early voting allowed people in the Los Angeles County (a HUGE county!) to vote on optical scan machines.

My sons, and I used the Inkavote paper ballots.

Also, take into account, that Californians prefer absentee voting, and if I'm not mistaken, those ballots aren't immediately counted up.

I always believed, that Aaahnold won the Recall due to a combination of his very liberal stance on pro gun control, pro-choice, pro-gay rights; Diebold paperless contraptions; married to a democrat Kennedy whelp, and his huge celebrity along with his foreign-born background, which always resonates well among the diverse population of California.

But it can also be, that about two years ago, Rupert Murdock bought a Spanish radio station (850 am, I believe) and he's poisoning the Hispanics' minds here.

[jfern]

3. No

The exit polls say that Kerry won new voters.

[jamboi]

14. I don't believe the numbers cited are accurate. Young voters -> Kerry .n/t

[UdoKier]

4. Many Parts of CA are very conservative.

And it wouldn't be surprising to me that thousands of suburbanite dullards in San Diego, Orange and Riverside counties, as well as the central valley went out and registered for the first time and voted repuke in response to the fear campaign Bush ran via his lapdog media.

The liberals in the state are more politically active, and have always been registered,

Conversely, the latin and asian immigrants in the cities whose interests would align with ours were not aggressively outreached by the Kerry campaign, CA being considered a "safe" state.

Your post points out why we need to work harder to see that this REMAINS a safe state. As a matter of fact, CA is not as dependably partisan democratic as many think. We've had several repug governors, including the very right-wing Reagan, and this state voted for the completely unqualified Schwarzenegger by a huge margin.

[RaulVB]

6. They are educated voters...

They know how to differenciate between the Presidential, state and local elections.

Not safe, sure, but Bush did not "win" all those votes there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

10. San Diego is surprising me

yes it is still conservative, but it truly trending Democratic... truly trending democratic... per LA Times story

[UdoKier]

13. City of San Diego, Yes. County -NO!

The City of San Diego is becoming a true urban center of culture and commerce, and the politics are trending to match, but the suburbs remain staunchly right-wing, and may actually be getting worse.

The flight & attrition of many navy personnel over the last decade has had a lot to do with the city changing, too

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

17. My sister lives in San Diego County (Vista), and all she saw were Kerry

Bumper Stickers. She swears up and down her whole county wanted Kerry.

[UdoKier]

19. She should visit Fallbrook or Lakeside...

Seems like the further from the water, the more right-wing (except for Oceanside)

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. Yes the more to the East you go the

more rural they are... and more conservative, to the point of being rabid bout it....

Oh and I can make a case for La Jolla being conservative too, and they are where the surf meets the turf (I know bad me that is Del Mar's shtick but still)

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. You'd be surprsied about the Navy

my hubby just retired and my brother in law retired almost ten years ago... they are both staunchily Progresives

[RaulVB]

21. My brother in law retired from the Navy in 2002

He and his wife voted for Kerry...this was THE FIRST TIME THEY VOTE DEMOCRATIC IN THEIR LIVES.

Yeah...Bush "won" the popular vote, sure...

[jamboi]

15. I saved a very interestin article on just that point. I'll drag it out

after we find out who won the election.

[intheflow]

27. California supports a huge military economy.

Border patrol, Navy in San Diego, Air Force in 29 Palms area, Coast Guard, Marines in Miramar and at Camp Pendleton, Army in Monterey, DEA agents everywhere.

Plus so many military contractors, such as Lockheed Martin in Sunnyvale, United Defense in Santa Clara, and Raytheon in El Segundo, to name but a few.

[Newsjock]

9. Don't misunderestimate the oh-so-red Central Valley

The number of Bush stickers has, anecdotally speaking, seemed to skyrocket since the election. With the massive population growth going on (they recently changed the population on the "Welcome to Fresno" sign from about 405,000 to more than 450,000), there's a lot of new voter registration -- and you can bet that a lot of them support the chimp, particularly with the nasty nasty hate radio KKKMJ stirring up the fire around here. (Indeed, their host told listeners to burn down the ACLU, a sentiment the host now says was a metaphor.)

[mountebank]

23. But still - in proportion to population....

New voters are likely to arise in liberal, urban centers, if only because there are more people there. Registration campaigns in L.A. for instance were huge. The new vote should have at least broke 55/45 for Kerry - I don't see any reason why it wouldn't. Bush didn't even campaign!

[RageKage]

12. I think the split in 'new votes' is the thing to look for.

I have been doing a similar analysis for FLORIDA and OHIO. (I was taking the change in total 3rd party votes and assigning these based on 2000 Bush/Gore split)

I think this done, on even a precint level, and then looking at the deviation between the split in new votes and the split in old votes, would be the best way to identify where to look for fraud.

[Knurled99]

16. Speaking of Orange and Riverside counties...

John Benoit of, R-Palm Desert and Tom Harmann, R-Huntington Beach jointly proposed a plan to change the way that California's electoral votes are counted. They wish to change it so that the winner of the majority vote in our state would only get an extra TWO electoral votes, while the two candidates would each get one electoral vote for each district won.

This proposal is TOTALLY partisan, with it's ONLY purpose being to hook the GOP up with some more electoral votes. I have already sent out a bevy of letters opposing this... maybe anyone here from Cali could email or mail your legislators as well!

[NVMojo]

29. if "exit polls" are worthless, than why not this?