Arnebeck Speaks!

[ClintCooper2003]

Cliff Arnebeck sent me an email yesterday in reference to one of my previous analyses of small Republican counties in California (Alpine, Mono, Inyo).

Here is what he wrote to me:

"The three counties in Ohio where the most votes were switched from Kerry to Bush: Butler, Clermont and Warren are Republican Counties.

It appears that the strategy was to target Republican Counties and, in effect, switch Republican voters who had voted for Kerry back to Bush."

[AlexHamilton]

1. Nice...

Did he say anything else?

Alex Hamilton
Read my latest article: The Media is Finally Outraged
Visit my site: Impeachment by the People

[jamboi]

5. Arnebeck rocks! He replied to me too re: transcript of his interview

located at http://jamboi.mydd.com

[noclonyofthechimp]

92. Do we know what time the hearings will be held on C-SPAN tomorrow?

Any info would be great. I am trying to get this out to everyone who can watch.

[Peace Patriot]

24. I'm not sure why this makes me so mad!

But it DOES! Furious, in fact! Maybe it's this: Because it must have been so hard for Republicans to stop themselves from automatically voting Republican, in lockstep with friends and associates, and possibly family tradition, and instead, think it through, really think it through--what Bush had done, how much he had lied, the unnecessary carnage in Iraq, how radical he is (not conservative at all!), what good government means, the mixing of government and rightwing religion, how corrupt Bush Inc. is, etc., etc.--and to be able to filter out the Republican noise machine and the disgusting corporate news media, and make the decision who to vote for on your own.

For Democrats--and even for Independents--it wasn't that hard. For most, it was not a decision at all (there was simply no question that we would vote to oust Bush Inc.).

But for Republicans--with all the internal and external pressures they must have felt--it was a big decision, and for many, probably a hard one.

And then to have these thieves and murderers in the White House steal THOSE votes! It is just infuriating! It is such a rapacious violation of everything that democracy is and should be.

The will of the people.
A thoughtful, informed public, making thoughtful, informed judgments.
Independent thinking.
Good citizenship.
And repudiation of lies and thievery and mass murder.

And we all KNEW this--from our families, neighbors, co-workers--so many Republicans turning against Bush, appalled at his war on Iraq, and his profligate spending, and his hypocritical pandering to rightwing religion. I know of a whole big apartment complex full of elderly, wealthy Republican types (doctors, diplomats, military people) who openly spoke against Bush and said he was nuts.

Everybody has stories like this--just as we KNOW that Democrats came out in force, like never before, people who had never voted before, people who normally didn't care about politics, as well as stalwart voters. Everybody knew that this was THE election that they HAD to vote in.

I distrusted my own judgment of events for only a couple of hours on Election Night. How could I have figured this so wrong? I asked myself--wishful thinking? --misjudging how scared and how brainwashed people were?

By midnight, I had figured out that they had stolen the election, and had pretty much the outline of how they did it (because I knew something about the e-voting situation), and that helped a lot. So...they stole it. Aha! I was no longer depressed. And I knew what I was going to be doing for the next couple of months (everything I could to challenge the election, and, failing that, to retrieve our election system from Bush Inc. which now owns it).

Imagine all the others who didn't have that instinct--that gut conviction--and some knowledge about how easily it could have been done. And now imagine that you are a Republican who had taken that long road around to rejecting Bush and voting for Kerry. And NOW you have to absorb--if you can--just how rotten Bush Inc. is, that they stole YOUR vote, in addition to everything else.

A lot of people are having trouble facing it, even some Democrats. But face it we must--all of us. Our democracy is in very, very, very great peril, and it has fallen to us, to living Americans, to save it. And save it we must. There is no other option.

Some people are saying here, Kerry can't win Ohio even with a recount, or if it gets to Congress or to the Supreme Court again, forget it--and all sorts of other naysaying. They're probably trolls, but still, they express our most depressed or exhausted thoughts. This line of thinking entirely misses the point. When you have something that is so fundamentally wrong--and you have a mountain of evidence for it, as we do--and it goes to your core principles, and to your heart and soul, you MUST fight it, or you lose your principles and your heart and soul.

Winning or losing--whether some part of it, or even the whole struggle, and the kind of calculations that go into win/lose scenarios--just don't enter into it. They are beside the point.

[truehawk]

28. They stole it where they would be under the least scrutny.

It makes sense. Shave in Democratic districts, but don't manufacture votes whole cloth, that might be caught. Pull your rabbits out of the hat in Republican districts.

Unfortunately Ohio seems to take a REALLY relaxed view of the requirement to have a number of signatures in individual hands that match the voter registeration cards. They evidently allow the poll books to be doctered all the time.

[electropop]

57. I agree about stealing back the lost Repub votes

While phone-banking, I spoke to many Repubs who confessed they just could not vote for Bush. They sounded so sad, and I tried to be a diplomatic as possible. I simply pointed out that Bush is not really a Repub or a Conservative, so no reason to feel bad voting 'against' the party.

[Stand and Fight]

64. Excellent Post!

Everything you said directly parallels just how I feel. I can remember watching the returns coming in and thinking, "There is just no way -- no way! -- that Americans could have been stupid enough to vote him in again!" I still don't buy that Americans would have re-elected the little chicken-shit with all that had come out in the weeks immediately prior to the election. It has me very, very frightened that our democracy has been stolen from right underneath us and the majority of Americans are oblivious to it because of the media's failure to do it's job... If this guy gets away with this... I don't know. For the first time, I honestly cannot even guess what will happen, and I can only get just the darkest glimpses of what the future holds. WE HAVE TO GET HIM OUT OF OFFICE. OUR FUTURE, THE WORLD'S FUTURE, DEPENDS UPON IT!

[roseBudd]

88. Even if nothing that happens between now and Jan. changes the election

the important thing for me is having it known by most that BUSH CHEATED. The GOP used a corked bat. Tainted.



BUSH CHEATED is color but can be printed and
photocopied B&W to save $$$. They print 2 to a sheet, so you will have to cut them.

download this and other files here:

http://somnamblst.tripod.com/

see also:

[americanwhothinks]

96. Very nicely put, PP!! Hear, hear!! n/t

[WINEWOMAN7]

36. Good article, good site.

[eleny]

2. I wonder if this is what happened in the Florida panhandle

Wasn't that the area where there were always lots of Dems who sometimes voted for Republicans? Anyhow, that might be a prime place for this tactic. And the R's were so fast to come out with that declaration after the election.

[jsamuel]

12. Very, Very, Very likely

[dlaliberte]

66. No it was dixiecrats who *usually* vote for republican prez

As much as I would like to blame the dixiecrat phenomenon on vote switching, that would be self-defeating. There are many democrats in the FL panhandle who vote for republican presidential candidates regularly.

However, if some of them decided to not vote for Bush this time, there should be a greater reduction than he actually got. That is worth looking into.

[bunny planet]

69. I've never bought the Dixiecrat arguement/explanation in it's entirety.

While some still fit into that category. Dixiecrats are an aging population, there are droves of a younger and older northern Dems population moving into Florida, lots of real Democrats not dems in name only like the Dixiecrats, who voted for Clinton in large numbers by the way.

[DoYouEverWonder]

23. In almost every county in FL

Bush got more votes than registered Republicans. That means that all of the Repugs voted and voted for Bush, plus most of the Independent voters. All I can say to that is, no way Jose.

[demo dutch]

62. I agree, and very difficult to prove because of past voting

trends which makes everything looks like it's in line with the 2004 outcome

[ClintCooper2003]

79. I doubt this is what happened in the Panhandle because the fact of...

the matter is, most of the Panhandle has been conservative for quite some time. It's less "swingable" than suburban Ohio.

[RaulVB]

3. Arnebeck is just great!

What a good and courageous man!

[Straight Shooter]

4. Warren. The black hole in our tainted election galaxy.

Go, Arnebeck!

I want to see him kick the crap out of that much-touted rationalization that all the Repubs voted for bush. No way, not after all the editorials I read by angry moderate Republicans. No way in hell did bush get that kind of support. Maybe from hell, though.

[genieroze]

42. Moderate republicans have to start speaking out. eom

[wiggs]

6. As a strategy, this makes sense.

So many of us know republicans who were voting for Kerry. Few knew democrats voting for Bush. Makes sense that they would target these votes.

It is so ironic how the RW targets its own for disinformation and fraud. When Cheney spews lies, they aren't intended for us democrats. We know them for what they are. But they are meant to fool their so-called base. They lie to their base to keep them home.

So when votes are tampered with, they target the republicans again.

[nashville_brook]

8. if you can't screw those who trust you

who can you screw?

[Bill Bored]

13. By targeting these votes

they also kept the margins similar to what they were in 2000 before the descent Repubs knew that Shrub would grow up to be the worst president in history!

[aquart]

21. Which also serves to isolate defecting Republicans

Who now believe they stood alone.

[me b zola]

60. not to mention

that since election night they have been told that the "moral" people have spoken...trying to shame them from ever straying again.I hope the entire group of bastards go to prison.

[Liberty Belle]

7. Elegant in its simplicity. Kick!

[understandinglife]

9. Suspect same tactic in Snohomish, Yakima and possibly...

...a few other WA State counties.

Thus, the reason I've been badgering as many folk as I can on the need for the e-vote machines in those two counties to have their sw/fw rigorously inspected by experts and that the central tabulating systems in every county be checked, not just at the sw/fw level, but internal logs and external telecom logs.

Anyone with access to WA State Dems, lawyers, etc., please push this. It is the ideal situation given the state-wide manual count to get to the bottom of why a 2.9 'red-shift' occurred.

In a different thread of 'truthisall' I noted yesterday evening that a cursory look at the Pres/VP, Senate and Governor numbers in WA State would suggest to me that Senator Kerry probably got ~ 112,000 more votes and that, had the shift not occurred, Gregoire would have beat Rossi by ~ 98,000 votes. Someone got greedy and also missed on their calculation of the likely Gregoire, Rossi split.

Now, they are confronted with their worst case outcome -- a manual recount and everyone focused on voting machine sw/fw and central tabulating systems. They should have settled for garnering a 100K 'mandate' votes for Bush and let Rossi try again.

Peace.

"Did Bush Know?"

[Carolab]

19. I see some evidence of this probably in Minnesota too

Like in District 25B, Northfield. STRONG Democratic turnout--except the Repuke "connected representative" Ray Cox beat the Dem opponent (a very popular progressive local teacher) by a solid margin. What's really odd is that the total number of voters for this state rep race was well more than for the presidential race in this district.

[The Bear]

100. FYI, I've passed this on

Good observation. I'm involved with Oregon Dems, and have passed this on to other Dems with possible connections in Washington.

[chrisclub]

10. Did Arnebeck file suit today?

[intheflow]

15. tomorrow, I hear. n/t

[zann725]

99. I thought it was to be today. The more they drag it out, the more I worry

n/t

[delphine]

11. So how does he know this? And how does he prove it? nt

[ClintCooper2003]

14. I think the proving it will be difficult. But he obviously feels strongly

about it, so he must have something.

[roseBudd]

32. The punch cards are the proof unless they are able to substitute

new ones to make up for the ones they stole. I believe the ballots are all numbered. If a voter screws up a ballot and asks for a new one the poll worker must log that. It's like voiding a sale for a cash register.

[Old and In the Way]

20. Prove it?

Do a targeted canvassing and get affidavits to attest to a person's vote.

I'm going out on a limb here, but I think most people who care about their vote counting and preserving democracy will be willing to make a declaration of who they voted for. That would include most/all democrats and more than a few Kerry-Republicans.

Secret ballots + Republican vote machines + Republicans count control =
Systematic vote fraud.

Registered Republicans ought to really chew on those words. This corrupt Party is stealing their vote because they can....registered Republicans are easy marks.

[genieroze]

46. I think you have something here.

Remember that state I think it was Nevada, or NM who were throwing out registered Democrats registrations? Registration shouldn't mean anything. My parents were registered Democrats and had no problem voting for a Republican. You register so you can vote in the primary. In order to make the fraud seem like a plausible occurrence, they need registered Republicans even if they voted for Kerry. Then they can switch the votes to go for Bush. In FraudiDUH though they were able to use the Dixiecrat theory.

[Stand and Fight]

65. Nevada. n/t

[ClintCooper2003]

80. Precisely.

[Snivi Yllom]

31. I would just like to see his evidence illustrating his claim.

I suppose it will be released shortly, but call me very skeptical.

He's going to prove 65,000 votes were switched?

[reality_bites]

33. jamboi has been driving this story...

...and sice he has 1000+ posts, there isn't a need for proof. It just is.

[Snivi Yllom]

34. just like Arnebeck's claim, there is no proof, but it just is true

[roseBudd]

50. There is proof because there are punchcard ballots

the ballots are the evidence

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Snivi Yllom]

39. never mind

[Razorback_Democrat]

40. I wasn't posting to you, read who I replied to

but then again

if the shoe fits

[Snivi Yllom]

41. whoops

[Name removed]

77. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kk897]

72. I was at the first Columbus hearing

and if I am remembering correctly, Arnebeck came up and said, "we have proof!" and had this pile of paperwork he'd obtained from official resources. At the time it sounded as if someone on the inside had given him information not available to the general public. I wish I could remember more... if there are transcripts of that hearing, perhaps his testimony is on it.

Also, here's a little something I posted on my blog the other day:

WaPo on Ohio Dispute

From the Washington Post article "Challenges Planned to Ohio's Presidential Vote Totals," I present the last three paragraphs, which might escape attention.:

Arnebeck wants Ohio Supreme Court Chief Justice Thomas J. Moyer to review evidence of election irregularities, an option allowed under state law.

The last time the law was used statewide was during Paul Pfeifer's 1990 challenge of Lee Fisher's 1,234-vote victory in the attorney general's race.

Pfeifer, a Republican now on the state Supreme Court, argued that irregularities such as discrepancies between the number of ballots and the number of signatures in poll books could have cost him the election. The court disagreed, and Fisher won.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38036-2004Dec5.html?referrer=email

I have to wonder if part of Arnebeck's strategy is to rely on Pfeifer to support his case. Although the 2004 race isn't as close as Pfeifer's was, the principle would be the same, and, if Pfeifer isn't a lock-step Repug I doubt he would fail to at least seriously consider throwing his weight behind Arnebeck.

[On the Road]

81. Here's the Key

"...discrepancies between the number of ballots and the number of signatures in poll books could have cost him the election.

That's what's needed in Ohio. If that happens in more than a few isolated precincts, this whole thing will blow sky high. Otherwise, it may turn out to be too difficult to prove.

[roseBudd]

95. If they switched votes in punch card counties like Warren, Clermont

& Butler then they will have to replace Kerry punched cards with Bush cards, by manually voting each replacement ballot. And they would have to obtain extra punch card ballots without anyone knowing they obtained them. Or they would have to pretend a whole bunch of unused ballots were distroyed by some natural disaster to account for using more ballots than votes, because they would have to throw away the Kerry switched ballots.

[ClintCooper2003]

16. kick

[Bill of Rights]

17. He got it from Dr Phillips study

http://www.flcv.com/swohio.html

I read it over twice. I don't know how I missed it, when it was first released. Phillips has offered to go on tv to explain his findings, but they don't want him....which is very odd, to me.

Basically, in this study, he says that results from 3 counties are suspicious, and that the margin of Bush victory, here, is 130,050 votes. (Bush's "win" was 119,000 votes at the time this report was written.)

The three counties that pushed Bush into the win column are: Butler, Warren and Clermont.

BUTLER: He gives lots of data. The worst offender was Liberty Township.....which accounted for 24% of Bush's margin of victory. In Liberty, precinct 4DI voter registration went from 660 to 1,834. Precinct 4DO went from 596 to 1,451. Not credible

WARREN (lockdown): "There would be no easier county in Ohio in which to hack election results than Warren County. Unlike all other counties in the state, the canvass records of Warren County are not organized geographically." They used a code that is put on a summary sheet in random order. Most people wouldn't even bother trying to figure out changes from 2000 to 2004. Here, in Warren, Bush got most of his margin of victory from 6 cities/towns....they added 22,019 new voters to the rolls. Which is believable, if the area was fast-growing. Dr. Phillips wrote a paper about Warren, I'll have to find it.

CLERMONT: In Batavia Township the voter registration rates are unbelievable. I read his explanations a couple of times, and don't really understand them.

In conclusion, the professor asks that the results in these three counties be challanged. He doesn't believe them.

[Bill of Rights]

18. Here is the link to Phillips study on Warren County

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/warren.htm

Dr Phillips wonders if the Warren County totals are to be trusted.

But, but, but. I thought Warren county already had a recount. Didn't they do one after people gave them grief about the lockdown? How is Kerry supposed to pick up votes there???

[bj2110]

29. I think Dr. Phillips may be missing something:

He mentions that precincts were "added". This means that the precint maps have changed. You would think that if there are more precincts than in previous elections, that would mean less relative registered voters in the surviving precincts. You would think that the new precincts were created within the boundaries of the old precints, and that the old precincts were simply split into two new precints, one with the same name and one with a new name. However, without a precinct map, this cannot be concluded. Maybe since the precincts are based on actual townships, it may be more accurately assumed here, but it still cannot be concluded without a map.

I've spent an extremely large amount of time pouring over precinct maps for Broward County, FL. There are around 700 precincts. Around 175 were added since the 2000 election. Yet, in many cases, precincts with the same name got larger, they covered more area. And correspondingly, there was a large increases in registered voters. This increase more than likely can be attributed to th redrawn maps more than to a GOTV effort or vote padding.

Don't get me wrong, I think Dr. Phillips may definitely be on to something, but it is imperative that the area is reviewed that each precinct is to have covered. A map has to be part of the analysis.

Also, if you want to dig a little deeper in to the re-drawing of precinct lines, you'll realize that it is an excellent tool to hide padded votes. It makes it extremely hard to nail down aberrations in the trends between previous elections and this election at the precinct level.

Yes, I'm sending this to Dr. Phillips.

[skids]

90. I've pointed this out to him.

I've been crunching some data for him to extend his analysis. I pointed out a location where you cannot do a statistical analysis because a precinct was added, however the numbers from the added precinct are strange and demand a reasonable explanation. I guess in cases like this an on-the-ground investigation is needed (and I don't want to reveal details because it would single out a county for butt-covering operations, at least until I get some sort of word that they won't be pursuing things on that level.)

He also knows about the ballot shuffling problem, though I'm not sure if he just found out about it in the last couple of days, or if he knew about it before then. I've sent an email to one of his staffers asking what they are doing to make sure all the analysers are aware of all the issues.

(I'm particularly concerned that Arneback is relying on gross macro-statistics as the basis of his case, or at least, that's what he's telling the media. The 3rd-party abberations alone are enough to cast doubt on the system, but he doesn't seem to be mentioning them to the media.)

[roseBudd]

97. i think in Warren, Butler and Clermont, new precincts arose further out

Because developers keep pushing subdivisions further from the jobs in the city and the white flight suburbanites are living where no one other than some cornfields lived in 2000. Almost all the new homes in SW Ohio are built where homes weren't in 2000.

[thanatonautos]

22. I read his explanations a couple of times, and don't really understand ...

After reading his discussion, I can see what you mean.

But what he's saying is not really all that complicated I
think.

His basic overall argument is that, where both registration
and turnout went up relative to 2000, both Kerry and Bush
should have benefitted by receiving more votes than in 2004.
He shows that, in a number of places where turnout and
registration did go up a lot, there is instead a repeated
pattern of Kerry losing votes, relative to what Gore
received in 2000, and this happens in precisely those
places where Bush gained a great deal of votes relative
to 2000.

He complains that the rate of new registrations in
these places is distributed very widely on a precinct level
... I'ld like to see that claim analyzed statistically,
relative to the rest of the state, because I have no experience
by which to judge how new registration rates might be expected to
be distributed over precincts.

This pattern of Kerry losses relative to Gore in
2000 does seem strange, on its face, since for a lot of
us (for me at least) it's hard to imagine how very many
Gore voters would have switched sides in this election,
or chosen not to show up to vote.

It could possibly be consistent with flipping votes
for Kerry to votes for Bush.

In Batavia specifically, he complains again that there is
something funny about the pattern of voter registration. He
says the rate of new registrations there is a lot higher than
the Clermont countywide rate. Then he points out there is also
apparently a big variation in the registration rates on a
precinct by precinct basis within Batavia. One precinct
in Batavia actually has a 49% decrease in number
of registered voters relative to 2000 ... it's not impossible,
I suppose, but it's weird. But that precinct nevertheless
essentially doubled it's turnout in 2004 over 2000, and so
recorded almost as many total votes for president as in 2000.
But Bush got significantly more votes in that precinct and
Kerry significantly less. That's certainly a really
weird precinct which I'ld sure like to see investigated.

Personally, I'm hoping that Arnebeck will have more evidence
than just these oddities, in the lawsuit.

[truehawk]

25. Go look at this thread for one arguement in Franklin County

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x121922

The machines were used to capacity in Kerry precincts,there just were not enough of them.

The voters were registered, they were there, but the machines weren't.

County by county analysis is ongoing.

[thanatonautos]

27. Thanks ... I'll take a look at this later today.

Right now I'm beat and am hitting the sack.
Have to work tomorrow.

[genieroze]

44. You got it...Bingo. eom

[roseBudd]

61. The beauty of the law is that lawyers can compell discovery

Whereas statisticians can just study and surmise.

[thanatonautos]

98. Yes ... you're right. That's the whole point, I suppose.

But I'm still hoping Arnebeck has some solid nugget
of evidence ... he still has to meet the burden
of presenting a prima facie case in order for the case
to go forward, and for discovery powers to be invoked.

I just don't know whether statistical evidence is
enough ... does anyone know the legal precedents
for this in Ohio election case law?

[SaveAmerica]

47. where are butler, warren, and clermont counties?

I'm trying to remember the details of what I heard on election night (those too painful to remember, we simply chose to forget) but I believe that RED-handed ROVEr was interviewed on NBC in the late hours of the night about Ohio not being called yet. If I recall correctly he said something about not being worried at all about Ohio because the counties they were waiting for (I'm thinking they said in the southwest corner of Ohio) were going to go to bush because they are republican strong holds. At that moment I thought it was pure audacity that he would think he knows that just because there are x number of republicans in a county there would be x numbers of votes for w.

[roseBudd]

56. Butler, Warren and Clermont ring Hamilton County (Cincinnati)

It's a good place to cheat because people will assume they are GOP strongholds with no Kerry supporters, yet dems who were active in 00 and 04 in those areas say no way Kerry got the same percent support as Gore, because there was no GOTV in 00 and massive GOTV in 04.

Edited to add:

Warren went 71% for Bush. Even higher than Clermont and Butler.

[roseBudd]

86. Also Warren kept the polls open late due to long lines (so they said)

AND Warren was the last county to report. Cuyahoga should have been the last due to size. It was like Warren was waiting to see how many votes they needed to flip.

[truehawk]

26. Also look at the Ballot shuffle thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=108132&mesg_id=108132

[roseBudd]

30. If the votes were switched in Butler, Warren and Clermont the jig is up

because of the evidence left behind. The punchcards are evidence!

Hamilton used ES&S for vote tallying, I know Warren used Triad Systems. Urban area punchcard systems ES&S, suburban/rural = Triad

[ramblin_dave]

38. If someone did rig the punch card counting, then

for sure these cards will be replaced before any recount is allowed.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

45. They've already had over a month to do it too.

And who knows how many ballots they might have "created" before the election, and perhaps replaced the real ones with. Wish there was a way to find out how many punch card ballots were purchased and/or how many these counties had in their possession BEFORE this election, and how many they can account for now in total...such phenomenal numbers, probably impossible to do.

[Kansas Wyatt]

49. Wasn't there a story about

A precinct worker with a Bush bumper sticker who was alone, and stopped somewhere before delivering the ballots?

[eowyn_of_rohan]

51. I don't know...

I remember a photo that showed an election worker putting boxes of what were apparently ballots into her car, which had a Bush campaign sticker on it, but the sticker looked like it had been photoshopped, to me.

[Stand and Fight]

67. No

There was a story of that, but it was a woman putting what were supposedly ballot boxes into the back of her red pick-up truck. I'll find the story and then post it.

ON EDIT
Here's the picture:


Here's the link:
http://accessdenied.org/main/archives/000266.html

[roseBudd]

53. i believe that all ballots are numbered, that each precinct has a block

of ballots that they sign for and any spoiled or unused ballots are accounted for. To swap in ballots to replace switched Kerry votes would require some clever forgery.

[roseBudd]

55. serial numbers on ballots (required in some jurisdictions)

From:

http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/cards/collection/i-ballot.html

This card is perforated so that it can be torn into three pieces; the middle piece holds space for write-in votes and may be folded over the card to provide a bit of privacy when handling the card. The left end (as pictured), when torn off, may be processed using standard punch-card data processing equipment, while a short stub at the right end may be printed with a serial number (required in some jurisdictions) or used for binding ballots into pads for distribution at the polling place.

[electropop]

58. Serial numbers are torn off before machine counting?

That's what I gather from your photo and explanation. Nice page by the way.

[roseBudd]

59. I don't know, I'm trying to find out. Any punchcard precinct workers know?

[bunny planet]

71. oh well, then that's out, R never forge anything.

[roseBudd]

85. To replace the Kerry votes they stole to put in the Bush column, they

would have to obtain without being caught a block of unused ballots, that no one knows they have and then they would have to put each one of those ballots in a voting machine and vote for Bush. The stylus used in a punchcard machine creates a unique imprint.

From:
http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/cards/chad.html

"It is worth noting that Peter K. Sheerin has also recommended use of magnification for the resolution of questions about chad. His web page, Dimpled Chads Under the Microscope, demonstrates how to distinguish between dimpled chad that was created using a voting stylus and that created using an ad-hoc stylus such as might be done by an election worker intent on fraud. The key elements he notes are the signature pinhole created by the microtip on the stylus and the imprint of the circular edge of the stylus. I have verified that these details are generally visible under a 10x loupe, although the pinhole created by the microtip is very hard to see if it is in the black spot printed in the center of each bit of chad on the standard Votomatic ballot."

[trudyco]

82. What about absentee and provisional?

Are they differently numbered? I'd like to know how many of the newly registered republicans in those county voted by absentee or provisional. Isn't Katherine Blackwell keeping the absentee/provisional at the state level instead of at the county or precinct level?

trudyco

[roseBudd]

87. According to DU member lizzieforkerry who did give Arnebeck a sworn

videotaped affidavit, some Warren County repub friends of her received WITHOUT REQUESTING absentee ballots in the mail. One of her friends called the BoE upset because she wanted to vote at the polls and they told her no problem. The question is how many Warren County repubs voted twice?

[tex-wyo-dem]

35. Musing...

Do you think that one fringe benefit to the Rethugs for redistricting might be that it would hide vote tampering?...just a thought.

In order to make a compelling case, you would want to go with a multi-pronged approach; namely evidence of voter disenfranchisement, voter intimidation, voting machine allocation, etc. plus evidence of voting machine/human errors with the possibility of all out vote tampering and fraud. These coupled together might convince a judge to consider suspending the Ohio election results until further evidence can be gathered. Long shot, but worth pursuing if you have the evidence.

Might MM video footage from Nov. 2 be a piece of that evidence?

End of musing...

[merh]

43. They did in red states too!

How can we prove it is another question, but I know that they did it in MS. We were purple in the polls, not full blue, but definitely bluer than what the results show. Funny thing is the full results of the election are not on the SOS website. Counties are missing? What does that mean, :shrug:, who knows, but they switched votes here because who would think MS would be anything else but red.

[Eloriel]

48. He's got it half right, and someone should tell him the rest

Judging from an enormous amount of analysis all over the place, the strategy was to switch Kerry votes everywhere they could -- Kerry strongholds (leaving Kerry still to win) AND Bush strongholds. That's how they came up with the 3.5 million popular vote "win."

And that popular vote "win" provides a built-in discouragement from most mainstream media and mainstream thinkers among citizens of suspecting or believing fraud. It's also a handy excuse for the GOP to trot out to discourage thinking of fraud.

It's also nice "practice" for future election shenanigans.

[Kellis]

52. you know-honest to God

I truly believed that the country would go blue during this election-that Bush was just THAT bad that the whole country would go blue and KICK HIS ASS OUT!!!
I DO NOT believe with all the information out there that so many states voted red.I think this happened ALL OVER the country-not just in Ohio.

Im glad(ecstatic!)to see Arnebeck talking like this.Thanks for posting.

[Peace Patriot]

84. Eloriel and Kellis...

Eloriel: Yes, exactly. Both instinct and logic tell us--and now we have an ever increasing mountain of evidence confirming it--that their Election 2004 Fraud Plan had four goals, the first two of which were: 1. Keep Bush competitive in the Electoral Vote (likely by tweaking close "red" states toward Bush), and 2. Manufacture and pad a Bush popular majority by grabbing %s here and there, all over, even in big Kerry states (and big Kerry counties, as the UC Berkeley statistical team's study showed in FLA).

It would have been unacceptable to the Fraudsters, politically, to have a repeat of 2000 (Bush wins the Electoral Vote but not the popular vote), and, since they had EASY access (means, opportunity) all over the country--Bush Inc. companies OWN the source code that runs all the central vote tabulators, and kept it secret, and insisted on no paper trail, as well as having all kinds of access to voting machines--the least detectable way to achieve a false majority would be to spread the vote-creation and vote stealing over a wide area. (There are so far some 15 to 20 states that had weird, anomalous numbers of one kind or another, all favoring Bush.)

This would of course include padding with Republican-registered voters who voted for Kerry, by changing their votes (one of the least detectable vote swindles).

The other two goals were, 3. To make it SEEM like it all came down to a relatively few "provisional" ballots in OH (or FLA), where Bush Inc. operatives were able to do massive vote suppression and were in control of the voting rules and the vote counting. 4. Public perception of a Bush Inc. win, which the TV networks provided by hiding Kerry's big numbers in the Exit Polls starting in the late afternoon on Election Day. (That's why we didn't have a Ukraine here--Kerry voters DIDN'T KNOW--whereas the Ukrainians rioted BECAUSE of the Exit Polls.)

Kellis: I'm with you! Throughout the whole campaign, I had a kind of rock bottom faith in the American people. I have an old-fashioned, down-home kind of perspective myself. And Bush Inc. was so obviously full of horse pucky, such liars and thieves, and Bush himself such a witless Howdy-Doodie (all hat, no cattle). I just couldn't believe all the good people I've met in my life all over the country wouldn't see right through it. And now the evidence is overwhelmingly confirming that belief. It makes my heart glad.

[BeFree]

54. Let's not forget

When the elections people had their national convention in August, they all said how they hoped the margin this time would be much greater than 2000!

Yeah, I can find a link, but then, so can you. ( Not you El, just the doubters.)

[Quakerfriend]

63. One more thing about Arnebeck

I don't think a lawyer would use such a strong choice of words if he didn't actually have some real proof to back it up. :9

[Stand and Fight]

73. Yep.

Arnebeck strikes me as a much too intelligent guy to go around saying things like that without knowing for sure. I'm mean, we're not talking about the stupid swaggering chimp from Texas, right?!?

:evilgrin:

[bunny planet]

68. This makes so much sense. I've always suspected this is how they

would do it. They adopted a wait and see if our Republican registered voters would still vote Republican, and then presto-chango, when they didn't, let's just change things to have them vote R anyway.

I got my mom, who loved * for some stupid reason, voted for him in 2000, lives in Florida, to change her vote. She voted absentee because she was going to be out of town on election day. She's in Pinellas County, Fl., perhaps her absentee ballot was one of the ones in the box they found under someone's desk after the certification had already taken place (whatever happened in Pinellas anyway, it was my understanding that the votes they found were equal to or very close to the amount Bush won by in that county, enough for a recount in that county).

Sorry to be so long winded but here's my point to get back to the context of what Arnebeck said. My mom seemed almost relieved when Kerry lost anyway, even though she had voted for him at the last minute because of all the information I bombarded her with in the last weeks before the election. She seemed to feel less guilty about having voted against Bush because he won anyway. Kind of like a compromise she could live with. She changed my mind, went against her party, and her former choice for candidate won anyway. My mom didn't even seem upset when I tried to tell her that her vote might not have counted and it might have been one of the ones lost under the desk in Pinellas. She wants nothing to do with my attempts to tell her the election might have been stolen.

Perhaps the Republicans in Ohio who changed their votes to Kerry won't squawk either, and that's part of the beauty of the plan. They will be more accepting of the story that Bush won then Democrats would be if their votes were changed. So switching votes in a Repug county would be the way to go, they won't complain as much or cry foul because they reluctantly changed their votes anyway.

I know Florida was stolen. Has anybody looked at the Arab populations votes. They were supposed to be over 100K voters who had voted Bush in 2000 and were definitely not going for Bush in 2004. Two friends and I personally called over 20,000 people in the I-4 corridor of Fl(for ACT), the area with the most 'swing' voters and they all said they had voted Democratic or were going to (we called on election day).

I know I've gone way off topic here. My apologies. My family has moved on in my household and they don't let me talk about it much anymore so it's been difficult. Without DU'ers to talk to I'd be buggin right about now. Now I'll read the rest of the thread. :)

[bunny planet]

70. Warren is the phony FBI 'lockdown' unobserved county too isn't it?

There might be alot of reason for a recount in that county alone, what's the machine or method they voted with in Warren county?

[Stand and Fight]

74. Yep, that's the place alright.

Good ol' crooked Warren County, Ohio. Ugh...
:puke:

[roseBudd]

89. Punchcard ballots form Dayton Legal Blank, Triad Systems for tabulation

Dayton Legal Blank had the contract for all punchcards in the state of Ohio

I wonder if Triad has any significance, as ES&S machines tabulated Hamilton County. Bush's low margin in Hamilton County is considered an embaraasment for Hamilton County GOP.

[roseBudd]

93. More on Triad Governmental Systems Inc. (Warren County)

...Tod A. Rapp, the man who wrote the software that tabulates the votes in nearly half the counties in Ohio, told American Free Press. The outstanding provisional ballots are only counted after that, Rapp said.

Rapp, the founder of Triad Governmental Systems, Inc. of Xenia, Ohio, wrote the computer program that tallies the punch-card ballots in the centralized counting systems used in 41 counties in Ohio. Rapp, whose sons now manage the family run company, is a generous supporter of the Republican Party and the presidential campaign of George W. Bush.

snip

Together ES&S and Triad GSI count the votes in 80 out of the 88 counties in Ohio. ES&S, however, manages the elections and counts the votes in the most populous counties of the state.

[ClintCooper2003]

94. Make this a main post, please! n/t

[glitch]

75. I knew it! Too many Republicans saying they couldn't stand Bush

and Kerry's method was to appeal to the moderates. They knew they didn't have the moderates, didn't even try to pretend they did, so they just stole Kerry's success with them.
I think they also stole all the first-time voters votes.
And this happened in every state. Not just Diebold, but ES&S and Sequoia (your counties) as well.
Kerry did win by a landslide.
America is NOT trending Moron-Fascist.
Thanks for posting, cheered me right up.
Get 'em Cliff!

[Helga Scow Stern]

76. Check out this interview just posted by Danish Reporter:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x123397

[Chimpanzee]

78. Has the vote been contested yet?

[ClevelandSportsCurse]

83. Those three contain some Cincy suburbs....

thus would have the money and operatives available to switch around some votes. I never expected and still don't expect Kerry to win those counties, but I certainly expected the margin to be closer than it was in 2000.

If I recall correctly, Warren County had a significant surge in registered Democrats, thus for the margin to mirror - and in fact, exceed - that of 2000 is suspicious, especially when they shut the place down to count the votes.

[AntiFascist]

91. This is exactly why....

a few Republicans should join this movement and make a big difference.

[KerryReallyWon]

101. this is great!!

Flipping votes!! Kerry to Bush. I can't wait until he proves it!!