Disaster Area (Graph): Kerry vote tally deviations from the exit polls

[TruthIsAll]

[goclark]

1. I don't understand

I can't read the font at the bottom.

Is this in Kerry's favor?


Help, I want it to be in favor of the good guys. :)

[TruthIsAll]

2. You're for Clark ; you must be a good guy.

The worst result for Kerry is at the left, where the exit polls far exceed his vote. The strip at the top is the diferrence.

Kerry's percentage vote tally was down in 41 out of 51 exit polls.

[livvy]

3. Click on the image that appears when you hold

your cursor over it. That should make it larger.

[goclark]

17. This Clarkie now gets it!

Learn something new every day.

Thanks everyone for helping me enlarge the graphic.

[Mastiff]

4. Yes it is in Kerry's favor, in that it shows him not getting more votes

than the exit polls predicted, and in most states he got less. If the problem were random error, he would have been ahead in as many states as he was behind in others. In some states he got signifigantly less than the exit polls predicted. If the problem was a biasis in the polls, it should have shown up across the board, and it did not.

[RaulVB]

7. And also shows something impossible

Exit polls alwasy match who was the actual winner of the election.

In OHIO and FLORIDA, the exit polls CONTRADICTED THE "OUTCOME."

[TruthIsAll]

8. It is surely NOT in Kerry's favor when the votes in 80% of the states

move against him and to Bush in the massive Red Shift from the exit polls.

[Viktor Runeberg]

20. Vermont

Big deviation. Diebold scanners. Hmm.

[TruthIsAll]

5. Sorry if I didn't understand. You can't see the graph clearly?

To enlarge the graph, move your mouse over the lower right corner and click on the image when it appears.

[papau]

6. beautiful -exit polls right on the right whether big or small Kerry win or

loss- FIT the real vote

and no "random error" as Kerry should have been ahead in as many states as he was behind in others if random.

and no bias in the polls, as it did not show up across the board AS IT WOULD HAVE if the GOP VOTERS ARE SHY WAS TRUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, or if the poll model was built with a bias toeard Kerry in it.and it did not.

On the left we only have the unexplained deviations fron the exit polls.

I am not sure if it comes across to those not into this -

but I liked it!!!

:-)

[TruthIsAll]

12. Kerry's exit poll area in states he gained votes is hidden.

that's why you don't see where Kerry picked up (in 10 states).
They are all within the MOE but do not match exactly.

The 41 states where Kerry lost votes are plain to see.

They're in front of the taller area representing exit votes.

[livvy]

9. Not only Ohio and Florida, but IA and NM also N/T

[Farmgirl]

10. TIA

Love your posts, but I don't quite understand this graph. I do see that on the left of the graph, the exit poll variation from the vote tallies is larger, and as you go to the right of the X-axis, the exit poll variation from the vote tallies diminishes. But, I'm not sure what it means....

:think:

[TruthIsAll]

14. See post # 12. The area where Kerry gained (10 states) is hidden.

Check the numbers at the bottom.

[Wordie]

11. How did you incorporate the absentee voting data into your results? n/t

[TruthIsAll]

13. I don't incorporate anything except the data itself.

tia

[Wordie]

19. I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying the absentees are left out? n/t

[TruthIsAll]

25. Wordie. Get the cobwebs out. This is exit poll vs. vote data. Period.

What is this absentee strawman you are building?

Do you know what an exit poll is?
Do you know what a vote tally is?

[pleiku52cab]

15. But But But

we all know that the exit polls (over 80%?) were wrong. Don't you understand that to lie to and/or to ignore pollsters is part of the new repug moral values (except when discussing their moral values of course).

[stillemp]

16. The numbers in that graph don't match Freeman's analysis

Surely you've read his analysis? Would you mind explaining where you get your data instead of just throwing who knows what out there?

[stillemp]

18. Surely you have, but here it is anyway.

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/ale04090.html

[stillemp]

21. Well?

Please TIA, you have to say where you get the data from or it doens't mean anything. IOW, I can't go pass it on elsewhere and be thought of as credible.

[TruthIsAll]

23. I got them from the Simon/SCOOP release

My numbers came from the Simon SCOOP post. I mentioned this early on, but forgot to mention that I calculated 2-party percentages based on them for comparison purposes. My Election Model was 2-party based.

There was no bias in doing this. The percentages were slightly adjusted upward for BOTH Bush and Kerry, proportional to their actual percentages, to eliminate third parties Nader et al.

I want to emphasize: this was unintentional and I'm sorry for any confusion. I never claimed to have found these numbers anywhere but from Simon's exit poll analysis on SCOOP.

ALL analysis I have done based on these numbers is valid - there was no bias to Bush or Kerry. The deviations were NOT effected.

LET ME REPEAT: THE 2-PARTY ADJUSTMENT HAD NO VISIBLE EFFECT ON THE RELATIVE DEVIATIONS !

For example, look at Colorado:
The Simon exit poll numbers were
Bush 49.9
Kerry 48.1
DIFF = 1.8

My adjustment to convert to 2-party percentage:
KERRY adj. = Kerry /(Kerry+Bush)= =(49.9/(49.9+48.1) =49.08%
Bush Adj = = 1 - Kerry = 50.92%
DIFF = 1.84 (that's a difference in deviation of .04%)

That's not noticeable unless you calculate percentage deviations to 2 decimal places. No one does that.

Here are the actual exit poll numbers from Simon.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm

Critical states (12)
State BUSH KERRY #Resp Time Red Shift
Colorado 49.9 48.1 2515 12:24AM 2.60%
Florida 49.8 49.7 2846 12:21 2.5
*Florida 51.4 47.6 2862 1:01 0.6
Michigan 46.5 51.5 2452 12:21 1
Minnesota 44.5 53.5 2178 12:23 3
Nebraska 62.5 36 785 12:22 4.3
Nevada 47.9 49.2 2116 12:23 2.2
New Hamp. 44.1 54.9 1849 12:24 4.9
New Mex. 47.5 50.1 1951 12:24 1.9
Ohio 47.9 52.1 1963 7:32PM 3.1
*Ohio 50.9 48.6 2020 1:41AM 0.3
Penn 45.4 54.1 1930 12:21 3.4
Wisconsin 48.8 49.2 2223 12:21 (-)0.3
Iowa 48.4 49.7 2502 12:23 2

(Nebraska included because "critical" because of ES&S dominance and history)

Non critical states(35)
State BUSH KERRY #Resp Time Red Shift
Alabama 58.1 40.5 730 12:17AM 4.2
Alaska 57.8 38.8 910 01:00AM 4
Arizona 52.8 46.7 1859 12:19 2.5
Arkansas 52.9 46.1 1402 12:22 1.1
Calif 46.6 54.6 1919 12:23 (-)1.5
CT 40.9 57.7 872 12:22 3.4
(CT 44.4 54.7 872 12:53) 0.2
DC 8.2 89.8 795 12:22 0.3
Delaware 40.7 57.3 770 12:22 4.8
Georgia 56.6 42.9 1536 12:22 2.2
Hawaii 46.7 53.3 499 12:22 (-)1.2
Idaho 65.7 32.9 559 12:22 2.6
Illinois 42.4 56.6 1392 12:23 1.6
Indiana 58.4 40.6 926 12:22 1.6
Kansas 64.5 34.1 654 12:22 (-)2.7
Kentucky 58.4 40.2 1034 12:22 0.9
Louisiana 54.7 43.9 1669 12:21 2.1
Maine 44.3 53.8 1968 12:22 0.8
Maryland 42.3 56.2 1000 12:22 0.5
Mass 32.9 65.2 889 12:22 3.7
Miss 56.5 43 798 12:22 3.3
Missouri 52 47 2158 12:21 1.5
Montana 58 37.5 640 12:22 (-)0.3
ND 64.4 32.6 649 12:22 (-)2.4
OK 65 34.6 1539 12:23 0.8
Oregon 47.9 50.3 1064 12:22 (-)1.3
RI 34.9 62.7 809 12:22 3.4
SC 53.4 45.1 1735 12:24 4.4
SD 61 36.5 1495 12:24 (-)1.8
Tenn 58 40.6 1774 12:23 (-)1.7
Texas 62.2 36.3 1671 12:22 (-)2.0
Utah 68.1 29.1 798 12:22 2.5
Vermont 33.3 63.7 685 12:22 5.2
Wash 44 54.1 2123 12:38 1.6
WV 54 44.5 1722 12:24 1.8
Wyoming 65.5 30.9 684 12:22 2.7

[jhgatiss]

27. Is your 2 party adjustment the factor that makes your numbers differ....

from Freeman's? That seems to be what you're saying just not explicitly. It's been awhile since I looked at Freeman's paper so I don't recall where he sourced his numbers from.

[TruthIsAll]

29. If Freedman used Scoops numbers and I believe he did, yes.

I consider ALL 50 states and DC in my analysis. I don't believe Freedman did.

The odds are out of sight when 16 of 51 states moved to Bush from beyond the conservative 3% exit poll MOE.

[TruthIsAll]

24. Your tone is out of line. Desperate. The data is 4PM Simon

FL numbers were from taken in an earlier poll.
Now just relax.
Don't worry.
We are proving our case.
Isn't that what you want?

[jhgatiss]

26. I concur with that sentiment.

You have been doing a lot of great work here in the past few weeks to digest the numbers into manageable graphs and such.

Have you thought about trying to gather a bunch of data, tabulator makes and models, voting methonds machines and models, and anything else you can think of to see if there is a pattern that is evident when you compare states outside the MOE to those within the MOE. Is there anything else besides the same exit polling firm that ties together states like Delaware and New Hampshire with states like Florida and Ohio?

[TruthIsAll]

30. No, I have not. Let others take it to that level. I have calculated

the stats of touchscreen voting machines turning Kerry votes to Bush (86 of 91), using the voter incident database (40,000 cases). THAT INFORMATION IS MUCH MORE DIGESTABLE THAN THE PROBABILITY STATS I HAVE CALCULATED.

MOST FOLKS DO NOT HAVE A CLUE ABOUT BERNOULLI (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION) OR GAUSS (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION).

[stillemp]

28. Thanks

I appreciate your putting this stuff out. I really think you should put references for every thread you start even though it will take longer.

[L. Coyote]

22. More election graphs and spreadsheets

at this page with links to Excel files for various states and some selected graphs. These include correlations of results by voting machine type. Also, Florida compared to other states.