Washington Post actually shows how fraud took place (maybe posted already)

[RaulVB]

Interesting portions:

"2 and a half hours data blackout due to Mitofsky's server going down..."

"Fixed by technicians at 1:30 AM..."

"Data corrected to Show Bush's Lead over Kerry by 1%..."

"Data before showed Kerry leading by 3% points at 8:15 PM..."

The last quote strikes me. They "corrected" and feeded a 4% shift between the candidates!

THAT NIGHT I FOLLOWED THE ELECTION BY THE SECOND. I NEVER LEARNED ON TV THAT KERRY'S VOTING NUMBERS WERE GOING OVER BUSH "TOTALS" nationwide. In fact they are accepting that the data was "fixed" to make sense.

Not a single time I heard anybody stating that!

I saw Kerry winning handily the electoral vote ON THE INTERNET.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html

[knowbody0]

1. wow. convenient blackout

[arcos]

2. That happened in México in 1988... Cárdenas (PRD, left) was ahead...

and suddenly, the lights went out...

When electricity came back in, PRI's candidate was suddenly ahead. Of course, he "won", and it wasn't until 2000 that PRI was officially defeated and out of office.

[Griffy]

3. Just pile it over there, with the rest of the proof .. FRAUD nt

[proudbluestater]

4. Amazing losing a server at a crucial moment like that!!

Ask ANY Fortune 500 company whether it is EVER admissable for a server to fail during something AS crucial as this. Most servers have a built-in failover function. If one server fails, the server "fails over" to the other server so that NO CRUCIAL DATA CAN BE LOST. And they tell us, whoops, sorry, the stuff is all gone, and oh, by the way, your guy is now losing.

BUSHSHIT!

[BlueDog2u]

5. O wow, yes indeedy....that is VERY interesting

and not funny. :argh:

[myschkin]

6. this is sensational!

[Kellis]

49. kick

keep it kicked.

:kick:

[IHeart1993]

57. Kick

:kick:

[atommom]

7. The data was "corrected" because Kerry was ahead? Verry interrresting. nt

[The Backlash Cometh]

8. A blackout, by Blackwell.

[electropop]

9. They swallow all the silly excuses hook line and sinker...

But to most readers this article must make the whole thing look very fishy.

[Carni]

10. Washington post -- yeah I'll take it!

Finally some sightings of this issue from MSM

[Broken Acorn]

11. This is bullshit

Any big company has multiple battery backups that keep those servers running for at least 1 to 2 hours. I can't imagine that Mitofsky's company didn't have the necessary IT infrastructure in place, especially considering the importance of that 24 hour window.

I am convinced now that Mitofsky KNOWS that the fix was in and has the proof sitting in his office. He must know that if his raw data is released, it is the Smoking Gun that we are looking for. It would be the equivalent to Nixon's Watergate tapes.

I don’t think that he was in on it, but Rove must have threatned his family or something like that for him to be so standoffish. Did anyone besides me notice how delirious he seemed on KO’s Countdown a few weeks ago?

This is so frustrating!

[Broken Acorn]

13. More BS...

"To compound the problem further, a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday."

"The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead."

Here is my explanation to all you non-IT people out there. This is Bull-Shit. First, 'glitches' like this DO NOT happen unless someone causes it. This polling company makes millions$$$ and it is a safe assumption that they have decent IT equipment.

So you have to ask me to accept on blind faith that not only did all the 'glitches' at all the polling places Always favor *ush, but the 'glitch' at the exit poll company favored *ush as well? For a 4% increase in 2.5 hours? WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!


Mitosky’s data is the Smoking Gun.

[lonestarnot]

14. Why do you think he wouldn't give up his data?

He's fix it again tony...

[AmyCrat]

12. could someone with a better hand on statistical data explain to me

please please how "adjusting" the exit poll data makes for more accurate results. Okay, yes, "fixing it" makes it look like it all matches, but how does it REALLY correct anything to do this? And if you are adjusting the results AFTER you have the winner, doesn't that defeat the purpose entirely?

Someone who understands statistical data better than me, please explain.

[pgh_dem]

15. i'm no statistician

by a long shot, but my understanding of 'fixing' the exit polls is to correct for the normal margin of error introduced by the assumption of the total number of voters vs the actual number of people sampled.
the exit poll companies are not just hired to give an early tipoff to the media as to who won, but also to help them write stories like "54% of married women really trust * to protect their helpless babies".
Of course it has been noted that a significant number of the exit poll results have fallen beyond the 'normal' margin of error.
Despite the fact that exit polls are generally a good tool for exposing irregularities in vote tallies, I don't think Zogby (and particularly Mitofsky) view their jobs as related to election oversight.
just my 2 cents

[L. Coyote]

51. Weighting data

Two kinds of statistics:

Descriptive statistics, methods of organizing and summarizing information about a population (ie. election canvass).

Inferential statistics measures the reliability of conclusions about a 'population' using a 'sample' of the population, a subset of the data (ie. exit poll).

If you sample 750 women and 250 men, you need to weigh their opinions in relation to the true population proportion.

The exit polls were weighted, perhaps incorrectly. Hence, the need to "adjust" --- or so goes the hindsight excuse being offered.

'Those who knows ain't talking.'

We might be better served by analyzing the election canvasses. No sampling errors there!!

[tex-wyo-dem]

16. Holy @#$%!

This is unbelievable! This is beyond fishy...this is damning!

Totally agree with Broken Acorn, data just isn't lost like this, and any server/IT infrastructure worth it' weight would not just go down.

This is at least one of the smoking guns!

[Broken Acorn]

18. Yep

It's funny how this has been overshadowed. ALL this evidence is needed to support the case of fraud, but real exit polling is the underlying Smoking Gun. Today was the first time I heard about their servers 'crashing'.

We need to see the original raw data. Mitofsky must be threatened by whoever did the fraud, because there would be no valid reason NOT to release the data. If he (they) had nothing to hid, then it wouldn't be a big deal for the statisticians to review his work.

[bloom]

17. How odd they would lie about the servers.

If they just said that they coordinated the data to correspond with the exit polls - because they assumed the exit polls were wrong... at least it would sound honest (sort of :eyes: ).

[Destroy_All_Monsters]

19. My question for Mitofsky

First post! Long-time lurker...

If this is true...

(Washington Post quote): "After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics."

... then why weren't the Ukrainian exit polls adjusted to reflect the official "actual vote" figures?

[Kellis]

20. excellent information

:kick:

[KansDem]

21. F*ck You, Charlie!

"The exit polls got it flat wrong," asserted Charles Gibson yesterday on ABC's "Good Morning America."

That is wrong, countered Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research, which conducted Tuesday's exit poll with Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool, a consortium of the major television networks and the Associated Press. "No wrong projections were made; the projections were spot on," he said. "The members used this data with sophistication and understanding of what data can and cannot be used for."

You the hell are you going to believe? Some f*cking host of a gab show or someone with knowledge and experience with this subject???

[madison2000]

24. Poor Charlie, don't blame him

He's just trying to keep from getting fired or worse. I used to love the folks at ABC and now I can't stand any of them. Koeppel, Jennings, Walters, Gibson- I expected more from all of them in the last few years and its been a big Zero.

ABC News has gone from bland and inoffensive to an inaccurate and offensive waste of time.

I used to watch Good Morning America every day, now I just leave the TV off and listen to Air America.

Their best and most truthful programs are "All My Children" and "Desperate Housewives".

[DARE to HOPE]

61. ABC also destroyed their WLSam station in Chicago, too

I used to love Diane and Charlie, too. Their prostitution has been hard to watch. And my husband remembers Peter Jennings came out early against the Viet Nam war. It is very sad. But WHY DO people trade money and security for their own integrity?

WLS radio was once a great station. It is a total hate fest now, with the exception of Nate Clay on at midnight on Saturdays. There have been endless complaints about this. AAR was here in Chicago for the entire month of April--since then, NOTHING in this blue, blue, Blue, BLUE state...

[Igel]

38. If people tried to use words accurately, it would be better.

Raw data has to be adjusted. Mitofsky is absurdly cautious in making projections as to the winner. Has been for decades.

BTW, "data blackout" to me does not mean "power blackout." Could it be that the software that they wrote for poll monitors to interface with failed?

[smartvoter]

22. WHY ON EARTH IS THIS SHRUGGED OFF?

When I see things like this, I just don't get it. n/t

[rdmccur]

47. I wrote this letter to the democratic party

because I wonder the same thing:

"I supported John Kerry for president and I worked for the campagn here in Albuquerque, NM.
I am angry at the democratic party because it has still not acknowledged that there is enough evidence for widespread election fraud in our 2004 national election to have a full-scale investigation. (And there is!) I believe some people should probably be going to prison for what may have been perpetrated and you guys are apparently not doing anything. It really disturbs me.
I've been a life-long democrat, now I'm thinking of being an independent or supporting the Green party--at least they were part of the effort to fund the recount in Ohio and New Mexico.

Sincerely,"

my name

----- Original Message -----

[TexasLawyer]

23. A Great Analysis From The Orlando Weekly

This story, "Was It Hacked" by Alan Waldman, came out 11/18/04. It's been discussed on various DU threads since then, but it is such a good summary of the exit poll issue and such a good explanation of just why the poll numbers are so fishy I thought I would post the link again, plus an excerpt:

http://www.orlandoweekly.com/news/Story.asp?ID=4688


<snip> As the first election returns came in, broadcasters were shocked to see that seemingly safe Bush states like Virginia, Kentucky and North Carolina were being judged as "too close to call." At 7:28 EST, networks broadcast that Ohio and Florida favored Kerry by 51 percent to 49 percent.

In his research paper, Steven Freeman reports that exit polls showed Kerry had been elected. He was leading in nearly every battleground state, in many cases by sizable margins. But later, in 10 of 11 battleground states, the tallied margins differed from the predicted margins – and in every one the shift favored Bush.

In 10 states where there were verifiable paper trails – or no electronic machines – the final results hardly differed from the initial exit polls. In non-paper-trail states, however, there were significant differences. Florida saw a shift from Kerry up by 1 percent in the exit polls to Bush up by 5 percent at close of voting. In Ohio, Kerry went from up 3 percent to down 3 percent. Exit polls also had Kerry winning the national popular vote by 3 percent.

In close Senate races, changes between the exit poll results and the final tallies cost Democrats anticipated seats in Kentucky (a 13 percent swing to the GOP), Alaska, North Carolina, Florida, Oklahoma, South Dakota and possibly Pennsylvania – as well as enough House seats to retake control of the chamber.

Center for Research on Globalization's Michael Keefer states, "The National Election Pool's own data – as transmitted by CNN on the evening of November 2 and the morning of November 3 – suggest very strongly that the results of the exit polls were themselves fiddled late on November 2 in order to make their numbers conform with the tabulated vote tallies."

How do we know the fix was in? Keefer says the total number of respondents at 9 p.m. was well over 13,000 and at 1:36 a.m. it had risen less than 3 percent – to 13,531 total respondents. Given the small increase in respondents, this 5 percent swing to Bush is mathematically impossible. In Florida, at 8:40 p.m., exit polls showed a near dead heat but the final exit poll update at 1:01 a.m. gave Bush a 4 percent lead. This swing was mathematically impossible, because there were only 16 more respondents in the final tally than in the earlier one. <snip>

[Broken Acorn]

26. Are you kidding me?

I hadn't see that one either Texaslawyer. This thread alone should be used in court as circumstantial evidence of fraud.

"the total number of respondents at 9 p.m. was well over 13,000 and at 1:36 a.m. it had risen less than 3 percent – to 13,531 total respondents...In Florida, at 8:40 p.m., exit polls showed a near dead heat but the final exit poll update at 1:01 a.m. gave Bush a 4 percent lead."

Can this be used in court (for all the lawyers out there)?

[mom cat]

31. Thanks TexasLawyer! I had missed that one too!. Fuzzy math

strikes again!

[ElementaryPenguin]

32. Aye yie yie!!!! What a bust! JUST KEEP F*CKING IGNORING THIS MSM!!

:puke:
:argh:
:mad:

[madbelgiancow]

34. CNN altered it's results significantly at 1 Am on the 3rd

And it had the same strange pattern : big shift with too small extra number of votes. This was caught by a Du-er who took screendumps before & after. There was a DU thread on his, which I can't search for.

Looked definitely fishy to me.

[KatieB]

53. I remember seeing this DUer posting too. He said - CNN has changed

their poll numbers to fit the final vote. We should find this on the DUER list somehow.

[Igel]

39. Think about it.

It's mathematically possible. Assume 12,000 respondents came from strongly Democratic areas, 1000+ from Repub areas (at 9 pm). Even assume the 9 pm data's been weighted for historical turnout figures. At 1:36 you've added a few, but you've also gotten enough poll data to know how much credit to give the 1000+ Repub respondents; assume Repub turnout's up. You (re)weight your figures.

I'm not saying this was what happened. The problem with making claims of "impossible" is that only one counterexample is necessary to disprove it. And if it's "mathematically impossible," only one mathematically valid counterexample's needed.

[ginnyinWI]

40. The Right is counting on all of these articles just fading away..

...any bad news is usually just for one news cycle, then it goes away and is forgotten. We all have to make sure it doesn't! We have to be the media.

[BlueCentrist]

59. This story is not going anywhere

It will not go away.We aren't going to let it.

[Digit]

48. WOW, I had not read that before.

This makes me sick to my stomach.
Kerry and Edwards won and something needs to happen to set things right.

[DARE to HOPE]

62. Which is why Zogby

...stuck between the Rock of his professional career and reputation, and the Hard Place of all the Rovian pressure they are now under...which is why Zogby did a courageous thing last Wednesday, sending his own representative to Rep Conyer's hearing, and secondly, calling for a blue ribbon investigation of the whole exit poll question.

Prof Freeman was there, too, and his voice was shaking as he defended his research which leads to one obvious conclusion.

These people all need our prayers. The deviation between the raw exit polls and the "tabulated" vote is THE KEY.

[Alizaryn]

25. ... then they fight you.

[wrate]

27. "server going down" is EXACTLY how Carlos Salinas de Gortari "won" in

the 1988 Mexico's presidential election. The polls gave it to Cuauhtemoc Cardenas.

[HEAVYHEART]

28. No.

I didn't see this article before. I'm kicking this shit up every goddamn minute! .:grr:


Thank you RaulVB!

[glitch]

29. Wow kick. nt

:dem:

[BreakForNews]

30. Nice Graphic and Archive Link for Wash Post Article

Archive of Original Washington Post Article with this Graphic
http://www.breakfornews.com/articles/WashPost-A23580-2004Nov3.htm

Isn't it just amazing the way computers break down
just "minutes" before you need to use them.

That caused a 2.5 hr. delay in the release of the
Exit Poll update which Edison/Mitofsky were just
about to release.

They had all the updated exit poll data just set to go.

What did you say?

You don't believe they had the data then at all?

You think they needed at least 5 hours from 8:15pm to 1:30am
in order to massage the exit poll data to suit a Bush win?

OMG !

What a scandalous suggestion.

Fintan Dunne, Editor
http://www.BreakForNews.com

[KatieB]

54. Isn't it amazing it's always called a "glitch"

>>To compound the problem further, a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday.<<

[tandem5]

33. kick n/t

[peacetalksforall]

35. Mitofsky was contracted by ABC CBS NBCs FOX and CNN - the issue

is with them...they paid...they own...they are responsible...all major papers and magazines have partnerships with the networks...they are all in on it...they are to blame...it is time to start laying the blame precisely....the networks own the data, they must release the data, not Mitofsky...they must answer the question as to why they didn't have a professionally reliable system in place...otherwise, their call is at heart of it all...if they received money from the right wing...they are partner thieves. If there is theft - the networks are the culprits. Forget Rove - he is only the person who said that it could be done and organized it. The networks are the key.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

36. Has anyway tried Slate for the rest of the numbers?

They posted exit poll data, at least the early data, on their site on election day.

edited to correct to SLATE

[tonyblair]

50. what about the bbc?

I have said this before, but they also subscribed to the data. i don't know whether they used Mitofsky or another poll.

[tex-wyo-dem]

37. Keep kicked...this is major!

[RaulVB]

41. Folks, I think this article would be enough for any criminal court (Kick)

[Quakerfriend]

42. Someone, please send this to Kerry, Arnebeck and Conyers

if hasn't already been. My hubbie is a computer engineer who has specifically worked on these types of issues. This type of computer failure is not acceptable in the "real" world. There are all sorts of back ups in place to prevent this very thing from happening,i.e., designed into the system.

[tex-wyo-dem]

43. kick

[tex-wyo-dem]

44. Hi...could someone please email this to:

Arnebeck
Conyers
Olberman
anybody else you can think of...before it falls down the list again.

I can't from work right now.

[Helga Scow Stern]

45. Sent to Danish Reporter. n/t

[wrate]

46. Oh! and one more thing: MITO in Spanish means MYTH in English.

This is not a joke. It's true.

[4democracy]

52. This is the first I had heard of the missing 2 1/2 hours, thanks n/t

[angrydemocrat]

55. kick

:kick:

[sabra]

56. Outrageous! kick n/t

[Poor Richard Lex]

58. does anyone know someone who was exit-polled?

Anyone seen any exit polling? I have not heard even one anecdote about a person getting exit-polled, seeing exit-pollers, etc.

Anyone?

[Digit]

60. kick

[KatieB]

63. RaulVP where are you - Washington Post has now corrected the word "correct

I looked up the article and there is no so such quote that you quoted:
"Data corrected to Show Bush's Lead over Kerry by 1%..."

RaulVP says: The last quote strikes me. They "corrected" and feeded a 4% shift between the candidates

This is what the article says now (and admits at the top they have changed the final poll number).

>>The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead.<<<

Your conspiracy theory continues!

[KatieB]

64. Washington State Audit Logs deleted during same time Mitofsky server down

RaulVB's story looks tame when you really put story together: This was triggered in my mind when I noticed a computer security consultant's report that shows that Washington State's e-machine audit logs were deleted between 9:52 pm and 1:31 am. (Audit logs are used to track if tabulator machines have been hacked). Mitofsky's exit poll server went down between 11:00pm and 1:33 am. I've included the links, but here's what they paint.

-->On election night Karl Rove has a mass of computers set up in the "Old family dining room" at the White House. (Unusual for a political consultant to have office in WH) He had set up a "massive network of contacts, not just in state capitals, but individual districts and precincts" He starts "tabulating results."
-->8:15 Exit polls showing Kerry ahead of Bush by 1%+ (Washington Post)
---->The audit logs --which track entry into the tabulating machines - for Washington State show log entries between 9:52 pm and 1:31 am have been deleted (chuckherrin.com)
--->At 11:00 pm - Right before Mitofsky is to report his 11:15 poll updates, his server crashes. His technicians get it back up at 1:33am (Washington Post)
-->AP Radio News reports at 12:20am that "earlier in the night" Karen Hughes has sat Bush down and told him he's lost the election. "Kerry is winning by a landslide"
-->BBC describes how that "Early exit polls quoted by media seemed to give Mr Kerry the edge, but colleagues said Mr Rove indicated right away that they did not tally with his information. He used his own data to put Ohio and Florida in the Bush column - bringing cheers from the president and his family when he went into the Roosevelt Room and told them."
--between 8:15 and 1:33 pm there is a 4% swing to give Bush to election. (Washington Post).
----------Below are the exact logs-------

---->KAREN HUGEHS TELLS BUSH HE'S GOING TO LOSE THE ELECTION
http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1106-30.htm
>>"Election night, I'd been doing live election coverage for WDEV, one of the radio stations that carries my syndicated show, and, just after midnight, during the 12:20 a.m. Associated Press Radio News feed, I was startled to hear the reporter detail how Karen Hughes had earlier sat George W. Bush down to inform him that he'd lost the election. The exit polls were clear: Kerry was winning in a landslide. "Bush took the news stoically," noted the AP report.<<

--->ROVE HAS COMPUTER NETWORKS LINKED TO STATE CAPITALS AND PRECINCTS SET UP IN WHITE HOUSE, HE TABULATES RESULTS, HE SAYS EXIT POLLS DON'T TALLY WITH HIS DATA,HE USES HIS OWN DATA TO PUSH OHIO AND FLORIDA IN THE BUSH COLUMN, GOES TO ROOSEVELT ROOM AND TELLS BUSH-RESPONSE IS CHEERS
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3987237.stm
"By the time election night came around, Mr Rove was in the White House, where, unusually for a political adviser, he has an office.
He set up computers in the Old Family Dining Room and started tabulating results. He had set up a massive network of contacts, not just in state capitals, but individual districts and precincts to monitor turnout and support. "

"Early exit polls quoted by media seemed to give Mr Kerry the edge, but colleagues said Mr Rove indicated right away that they did not tally with his information. He used his own data to put Ohio and Florida in the Bush column - bringing cheers from the president and his family when he went into the Roosevelt Room and told them.
And when the TV networks gave either Ohio or Nevada to Mr Bush but not both - which would have led him to be declared as the winner - Mr Rove was one of the president's aides who got on the phone to news chiefs to try to pressure them to change their minds."

---->WASHINGTON STATE AUDIT LOGS MISSING LOG ENTRIES from 9:52pm and 1:31am
(audit logs are used to verify that machine has not been tampered with)
>>"Another audit log incident occurred during the Washington State primary just six weeks ago. Two interesting events took place here:
1) all entries are absent from the audit log between 9:52 pm and 1:31 am. This includes records of summary reports being printed during that time frame, which is something that is always logged by the system (like the ones in our example - note that they ARE in the audit logs here). The printed reports show up in the audit logs when they are printed before and after that missing block of time. Here is the audit log: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/auditlog.PDF
2) Here are copies of the 5 sets of summary reports printed off during that missing time period, complete with timestamps showing that they were printed during that block of time and were then signed by the elections chief, Dean Logan.
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/resultspages.PDF
Can anybody guess what it means when you are missing audit logs for a specific block of time, and known events took place that should be reflected in the logs? It means you were Hacked

--->MITOFSKY EXIT POLLS SERVER GOES DOWN BETWEEN 11:00pm and 1:33am
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html

2 and a half hours data blackout due to Mitofsky's server going down..."
>> "On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout"<<

>>"To compound the problem further, a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday."<<

--->4% SHIFT:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html
"Data corrected to Show Bush's Lead over Kerry by 1%..."
"Data before showed Kerry leading by 3% points at 8:15 PM..."
(Above are quotes from Dec 10) Corrected Washington Post language on December 12:
>>"The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists were left relying on preliminary exit poll results released at 8:15 p.m., which still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage points."<<