Is this true about the exit polls?

[kuozzman]

There's a panel about the election on CSPAN right now. Exit polls came up and FOX's Carl Cameron was explaining that women were very overrepresented in the exit polls and that the media picked up on that right away and knew they would be off, but that when they got leaked to the "bloggers", there was no "disclaimer"?
True?
How do the best pollers in the world overrepresent women???
If the media noticed it right away, why didn't the pollsters?
False?
Why does the media lie about it?
What is their incentive?

[crispini]

1. Let me bold the relevant part of that for you:

FOX's Carl Cameron

Anything coming to you from the Ministry of Propaganda = automatically suspect.

[rockedthevoteinMA]

2. Uh there's also more women than men in the world, so my

History prof. told me.

[mattclearing]

3. This has been said by a lot of people in the media, but

I've never heard anything that substantiates it other than people saying it in the mainstream media. These people parrot each other, it's like a rumor or a game of telephone. Is it possible? Sure. Do you trust it when someone says it without displaying proof? Of course not.

[tritsofme]

4. I heard this on election day as well

They said initial samples contained something to the effect of 60% women, whereas there is usually only an advantage of a few percent in their favor.

I haven't heard anything since then though.

[Twist_U_Up]

5. Hes a wack nut

I was watching it too and he was going on about The grassroots werent internet people and the young vote was overrated

I just kept thinking to myself BWHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA
wheres the crow????

[BattyDem]

6. "How do the best pollers in the world overrepresent women?"

They don't. Professional pollsters know what they're doing.

If the media noticed right away, why did they report the exit poll results and/or why didn't they mention it on election night?

The source is FOX's Carl Cameron ... 'nuff said.

[bemis12]

7. They did report it election night..

.... actually still on election afternoon. The story was available then......

[senegal1]

8. need a link to support that statement please or some reference

[bemis12]

10. I'm sure it's gone by now

but I certainly read it on election afternoon. I daresay others here did also?

At any rate, feel free to just assume I made it up, because it doesn't fit into your world.

[senegal1]

16. Please don't read things into my email that are not there

It's reasonable to ask for more information.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

9. That's why we want the raw data....

so it can be gone over and IF the methodology is flawed, it will explain the results. If the methodology is sound.... well, that would be a good thing.

[Cheswick2.0]

11. maybe 60 percent of the people voting were women?

who knows, I doubt it was really a problem. This is the kind of crap the repugs are always ready with. It reminds me of "Gore couldn't even win his home state". That particular phrase was on every tongue with in minutes of TN being called for bush. They cheated in TN in 2000 too.
They always have some bullshit line to spout to cover for their theft.

[KittyWampus]

24. Cheswick, You Hit The Nail On The Head. "Security" Moms Voted Kerry

Nuff said.

[hvn_nbr_2]

12. Third sex under-represented in polls

On election day, until about 1:00 in the morning, the exit polls from Ohio showed Kerry ahead among BOTH men and women. If that pesky third sex had not gone so strongly for *, then it wouldn't have mattered whether women were over-represented.

[SheilaT]

13. Not only are there more women

in this country, by more of them vote.

And good exit polling accounts for that, which means that more women should be sampled to accurately reflect that difference.

Exit polling is very reliable. These people have to get across the lie that exit polls are not so they can account for the supposed outcome of the election.

In Ukraine, one of the reason there was rioting in the streets over the results, was that the exit polling and the supposed results didn't tally.

If Kerry had only stuck to his promise not to concede until every vote had been counted, we might well have had rioting in our streets. Which would have been better than rolling over like he did, in my opinion.

[nashuaadvocate]

14. It *may* be true, however... (with link to website for more info)

Kuozzman--

Check out a great post-election website, http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/exit-polls.html , for information on this issue. The organizer of the site has created a national map of the "4 P.M. exit polls." He explains how, allegedly, the 4 P.M. *national* exit polls oversampled for women -- 58% of the sample, rather than the proper 52% of the sample -- but he also notes that, despite the fact that women were 7% more likely than men to vote Democratic in 2004, this sampling error would only have caused (for example) Bush's national exit poll numbers to increase by 0.4%. So, while I haven't done the math personally, I'd imagine that even given that level of oversampling -- if in fact something like it happened in Ohio -- the results should not have been anything close to what they were (in Ohio, Kerry winning 52% to 48% at 4 P.M.; then "actual," final numbers showing Bush winning the state, 51% to 49%).

The News Editor, The Nashua Advocate
http://www.nashuaadvocate.blogspot.com/

[newyawker99]

21. Hi nashuaadvocate!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[lizzieforkerry]

15. Here's a good article about it

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

EXTENDED FOOTNOTE ON THE LIMITATIONS OF THIS DATA
By Jonathan Simon
Always keep in mind that this 4pm exit poll data is the early sweep, skewed for women (58% to 42%) and therefore towards John Kerry/Democrats.

While this sample may have been accurate for the time of day measured (more women voting because of workforce composition and schedules), it constituted only one component of the full exit poll (63% of the sample), which consisted of two additional sweeps which reflected increased participation of men in later hours.

Thus the later updates (c. 12:20 a.m.), which impounded all three sweeps but was posted before contamination with tabulated data, is the best results we have at this time for comparison with the final results.

The first sweep has been singled out as having poisoned the whole barrel; but this is ridiculous - you simply need to make a slight adjustment to the final gender breakdown (@ 12:21 a.m.), if you believe that to be skewed, which has very little effect on the results (read on to see exactly how this works in terms of actual numbers).

That is, whether or not the first sweep had some distortion relative to our expectations for that time of day - it all amounted to very little, and is easily and inconsequentially adjusted for in the long run.
<snip>
But Bush "won" Florida by 5% (52% to 47%), a "red flag" discrepancy from the exit poll, however the poll is weighted by gender. Here's a fun fact: to get the exit poll results to equal the tabulated outcome, you'd have to sample all men, that's right 100% men / 0% women, just like the good ol' days before they passed that blasted 19th Amendment.

<snip>

[peacetalksforall]

17. FOX CNN NBCs ABC CBS are accomplices in the theft. Demand that

they allow Mitofsky and the other company release the data now. They contracted with the exit poll companies, then they manipulated the polls to support the theft and now they are giving us there only version or reasons to 'splain' it.

Don't let them off the hook.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

23. Could it be that Mitofsky is the one covering his a**

Could it be he's directed MSM not to release his data on grounds it's some sort of a breach of contract? Otherwise, wouldn't our boy KO have outed all the data already?

[snot]

18. So why didn't the same happen in previous years?

[EFerrari]

19. Why lie? They want to keep their jobs &

remember, we paid for those good exit polls in the Ukraine, and kept the bad liberal ones for ourselves <g>.

[Fly by night]

20. The exit polls posted on CNN at 11:30 pm were not blog-based

and they broke the data out by sex and by proportion of the sample from each sex. As with many others, I went to bed feeling confident that these late-hour exit poll results, posted on CNN and not any blog, were ample evidence that Kerry had won.

But, of course, that was before Mitofsky's server "went limp" for several hours, before he had to give it an "adjustment" and before he developed amnesia about where the "raw" data went (and whether he can share it with anyone.)

I agree with an earlier poster. Keep telling the MSM to release the raw data or stop calling themselves journalists or patriotic Americans. Enough is enough. Dan Rather and Tim Russert, are you listening? 60 Minutes crew --are you guys off your meds? Here's the story of the century and you guys are all "short-timing" it. Get with the program!

[SaveAmerica]

22. any word from the 'little people' who did the exit polls?

Has anyone read about or heard of any of the people who did the exit polls? Wouldn't they be able to clarify if they polled more women than men? Too bad they won't come forward if Mitofsky won't.

[Gman]

25. Considering that the exit polls were only wrong in states with bbv

how could it happen, then, that women were over represented in states with bbv?

[berni_mccoy]

26. CNN was release exit poll data on a regular basis

I watched it happen with my own eyes.

7PM - CNN Exit Poll Release: Kerry winning
Actual Vote results coincide

8PM - CNN Exit Poll Release: Kerry winning
Actual vote results coincide

9PM - CNN Exit Poll Release: Kerry winning
Actual vote results deviate

10PM - NO EXIT POLL RELEASES/Updates
Actual vote significantly deviating

11PM - NO EXIT POLL RELEASES/Updates
Actual vote deviating further

12PM - NO EXIT POLL RELEASES/Updates
Actual vote significantly deviating

1am - Exit Poll Release: matches vote
Actual vote coincides

[KansDem]

27. Grasping at straws...

I think this kind of information is put out in the media in order to offset the valid points of concerned citizens regarding this election. It is used only to put a grain of doubt in the minds of the voters so we won't question the suspicious results.

I think there have been several attempts to draw attention away from the exit poll numbers:
1. First, Rove plays up the "morality vote" story to order to cover the excess of votes Bush got in states where the polls leading up to election day had Kerry ahead;
2. Second, The GOP "rush to the polls" in the closing hours of polls story, after supposedly Republicans saw exit polls showing Kerry ahead and winning;
3. Third, women were "over sampled" story thereby giving way to false pronouncements of Kerry as the winner.

These are only three, put what Rove/BushCo has done with the help of the corporate media is to put out a kind of "excuses buffet" in which we are treated to a different excuse each day/week as to why the exit polls had Kerry the winner, yet in a few magical moments in the wee hours of November 3rd, Bush "pulls ahead."

I not sure why the media is going along with this, but given their history of "go along to get along" I'm not surprised--(ie, media approval of the McCarthy hearings(1950s); total acceptance of the JFK assassination "findings" with the magic bullet theory(1960s); Watergate(1970s); Iran-Contragate(1980s); Oil War I (Bush Sr., 1990s)) and now Oil War II (Bush Jr., 2000s). I used to think the days of Woodward/Bernstein and the Washington Post were the rule, but now have come to believe they were the exception.

The purpose of TeeVee (and the media in general) is to entertain and sell products. I think we are deluding ourselves to believe any different...

[merh]

28. Is that what happened in the Ukraine?

:shrug: Just wondering! :shrug:

[EMunster]

29. Carl Cameron? Fox?