PART III: To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

[TruthIsAll]

In order to believe Bush won the election, you must also believe:

1. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

2. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.

3. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.

4. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 trillion.

5. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

6. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

7. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.

8. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.

[berni_mccoy]

1. Wow.

Well said!

Thank you very much.

[texpatriot2004]

2. Thanks TIA I love to see these To Believe Bush Won You Also

have to believe docs. They really bring it home, and remeind me of how ridiculous and farfetched it is to believe he "won" this "election." I will share the info. Thanks again.

[TolstoyAndy]

3. shameless kick

:kick:

[kuozzman]

5. Thanks! You have a link for parts 1 & 2?

[TruthIsAll]

6. PART I: To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1316010

[TruthIsAll]

9. PART II: To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1358806

[ihelpu2see]

4. Awsome synopsis of the truth!

well done, but people dont understand statistics, if you tell them any #s there eyes get glassey...

[tridim]

7. People understand odds

They'll certainly understand the "1 in 13.5 trillion" stat. The problem is, in bizarro world the repukes will just say 1 in 13.5 trillion is a sure thing--because Faux and Bush tell them so.

[genieroze]

8. In Santa Clause. eom

[msongs]

10. I enjoy your posts but...

100% of all elected dems and party officials I have contacted wish people like you would just drop dead, because they are not now or ever gonna do anything to stir the pot about election fraud. Every Dem official I have contacted here in CA have all said the same thing: it is over, time to move on. Every one of them said that or something just like it.

All the Dems officials I have contacted here in California have told me they have no intention of doing ANYTHING AT ALL to get rid of e voting, or doing anything to make it safer like

Prohibit voting machines/systems from companies who donate money to political parties or candidates,

Require a countable paper trail that can be kept in voting places to be counted again and again if necessary,

Demand access to ALL computer code associated with the election process,

disconnect ALL voting related computers and systems from outside access, that is, outside the internal state/county system....no more calling out or allowing any source to call in,

and allowing interested parties from the county and any candidate on a ballot to observe if any representative from the voting system maker accesses any voting system/machine.

I am sure there are more safe guards than these, but I am just tooting my horn here.

AND we are organizing with DFA to take over the local and county party and get rid of the losers.

Keep on posting, though, cuz maybe I WILL BE PROVEN WRONG ABOUT ALL THIS and I will happily retract all my remarks as necessary :-)

Msongs
Riverside Ca

www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[genieroze]

36. Well if that's the case they better get ready to kiss their jobs goodbye.

[bleever]

11. I enjoy your posts, but

what I'd really enjoy is seeing you in the post of Attorney General.

:yourock:

[TruthIsAll]

17. Thanks, but solving math problems is what I know...

Besides, Ashcroft is doing a great job. Not.

I never knew about Calico cats until he came in.

[DoYouEverWonder]

12. Faith Based Elections

brought to you by BushCo.

Can we go back to reality and just count the damn votes?

[bush_is_wacko]

15. But we prayed

him into office, don't you see?

C'mon all the non-fundie's out there that KNOW this can't be true, wake the heck up! I know there was more than the hundred people in my state that showed up for the last protest!

[Nederland]

13. And to believe THIS tripe...

...you have to believe:

1) that the exit polls produced half way through the voting day can accurately predict a full day of voting.

2) that Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, doesn't know what he's talking about when he says the 4pm exit polls were wrong.


(funny how my #2 and TIA's #7 seem similar, doesn't it?)

Tell me again TIA, DO you trust Mitofsky? Oh, that's right, you always refuse to answer that one when I ask you...

[TruthIsAll]

14. Well, 10 out of 11 like it, anyway n/t

.

[Nederland]

19. Dodging the question yet again I see

Do you trust Mitofsky?

[helderheid]

16. I've noticed you are fine with US exit polls

Why? Are you fine with the Ukrainian polls? Between the 4pm polls and the polls that came out later, there wasn't enough of a margin to account for the percentage difference - or please tell me why I'm wrong.

[Nederland]

20. Response

I'm fine with the final exit polls because those samples actually reflect the voting of the entire voting population, not merely those that voted in the first half of the day. As to the explanation of how to account for the percentage difference, the answer is simple. The later polls corrected a mistake in the earlier polls that oversampled women. That, at least, is what Mitofsky has said.

Do you trust Mitofsky, a man with 25 years of experience? TIA, unfortunately, won't give a straight answer to the question.

[pauldp]

22. I don't trust Mitofsky...he sure seems to be hiding something.

Where the hell is his raw data? The legitimacy of our democracy is in question for god's sakes! He thumbed his nose at the House Judiciary Dems when they asked him for it.

The data Steve Freeman used in his analysis was up on cnn.com till PAST MIDNIGHT! on election night. WTF?

I'm no statistician but I know stonewalling when I see it.

[Nederland]

23. Fair Enough

If you don't trust Mitofsky, you have no business claiming that the 4pm exit polls he produced are accurate.

[pauldp]

29. pfffft. I never claimed they were accurate.

They are all we have. We need the raw data, and he's witholding it.
His back peddaling once he found out people had screen grabs of the cnn numbers is suspicious. Am I convinced he is experienced and qualified as a pollster? Yes, and most people are. Do I trust him? No. Should someone investigate his organization and their involvement in the election? Yes. Should he respond to Rep. Conyers and release his raw data? Yes.

Let's see now who supposedly won the election?...and Mitofsky wants to wait till January to release his report. Hmmmmmmm.

[TruthIsAll]

41. Thanks, Paul. I no longer have patience for the naysayers. n/t

tia

[platinumman]

39. The woman thing is probably nonsense

This was an excuse put forward by right wing journalists, but I'm not sure if it was Mitofsky himself who put it out. If he did, he is just stringing you along, as it is pretty daft, really. It would be very hard to 'oversample' women, and if they did, it would be easily corrected in the field. The figures are far more likely to be due to the fact that there were more urban precincts in the samples than non-urban ones, almost certainly by design.

I hope it is realised that Mitofsky and the Republicans are content to give you as much rope as you like with this one.

[merwin]

40. Then please explain why

the exit poll predictions suddenly started taking a drastic turn to Bush, while not adding a significant number of votes (ie: percentages changing without number of people polled going up).

That, and not releasing raw data, signifies without a doubt that there's something fishy going on.

Mitofsky is a smart guy and he knows that if he stuck with his original predictions of Kerry winning, and those turned out to not match the election results, then he would have basically lost his job... which is why IMHO, he started mixing in actual election results so by the end of the night it would end up matching.

If everything is on the up-and-up, then why doesn't he release the raw data? I think that his exit polling data says that Kerry won, but he's covering up to save his own ass for future elections.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

18. Way to be, Truth!

[merh]

21. Does any one know what type of voting equipment is displayed

in the video at this link?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=171820#171853

[whistle]

24. I believe........................that the election was stolen!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Excellent. I just pasted all three into a document. How about adding

You have to believe he won 51 % of the vote when the post election Harris poll shows only a 49% approval rating.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

26. This is great. There are probably tons of things to pull up the

facts on and add to the list. You don't mind if I media blast this??

[TruthIsAll]

27. Media blast it. Part I is all over the Net, thanks to Will Pitt's article.

tia

[Laura PourMeADrink]

28. YOU'RE NUMBER ONE !!!!! You now have one combined

list which I will send out til my fingers hurt.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[we can do it]

31. Thanks

Another tidbit to pass on

[bleever]

32. Kickin' for truth, justice, and the American way.

[buddysmellgood]

33. Wow, cool

kick

[rdmccur]

34. Help! Anyone remember whether Madsen

asked about outsourcing of Diebold (or other e-v companies)
jobs. Here's a reply I received today from Bev Harris

"At BlackBoxVoting.ORG we revealed an internal document back in
July that showed Diebold planned to outsource heavily. People we
interviewed within Diebold told us they planned to hire as many as
1,000 temps. I found ads for temps for Diebold on Yahoojobs.com
and the job board at hotmail. Hope this helps.

Thanks very much for writing!"

Bev Harris - Executive Director - Black Box Voting -
http://www.blackboxvoting.org
To donate: http://www.blackboxvoting.org/donate.html or mail to:
Black Box Voting - PO Box 25552 - Seattle WA 98165

[StephanieMarie]

35. TruthIsAll -- read this post

SC vote counts and exit polls - how odd is this?
by Seaclyr
It shows intra-day voting results in SC and the charts are amazing, and imply possible "real time" decisions being made to hack more votes for Bush as the day went on. Are there similar patterns in other states?

[platinumman]

37. Justify your assumptions

Every time you've posted this stuff in the past week or so, I have asked you to defend your assumption that precincts were randomly sampled. So far you have failed to do so.

If you don't know the sampling methods, you cannot make any calculations at all regarding the margin of error. The only way you can possibly know the design of the exit polling is if you had some inside knowledge. Do you?

Just for the factual record, commercial polling companies would rarely sample completely randomly. Of course, you may be right in this case, but you cannot claim to be right unless you give your sources.

If you keep posting this stuff, I'll just keep asking you to justify your assumptions.

[ginnyinWI]

38. Can anybody tell me what the overall exit poll % was?

If the "official vote" was Bush 51, Kerry 48, what did the exit polls predict overall?

[TruthIsAll]

42. They predicted Kerry by 2-3 points and 310-330 EV's

OH 20, FL 27, NM 5, NC 15, CO 9, IA 7 .....that's 83

Do the Math:

Kerry: 252+83 = 335
Bush: 286 - 83 = 203