Well, here's why all the 3% counts are matching up in Ohio.....

[kuozzman]

They're using the same damn precincts that they've used in the past, at least in Cuyahoga County. But this county director says they used the process in local November elections, did they have a recount then? Maybe they've just known for a while which ones to use?
http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/news/1103279723222531.xml

Hoke also raised questions about the way the 3 percent sample was chosen only from those precincts where 550 or more ballots were cast.
The law, she said, specifies that they be chosen randomly.

But Cuyahoga County elections director Michael Vu pointed out that the board had used the process in the past, including in local November elections, and worried that changing procedures now would cause even bigger problems.

"When we conducted this recount we knew that anything we did there were going to be critical remarks regarding it," Vu said.

[leftyandproud]

1. Maybe THIS is why...

We lost.

by almost 3.5 million.

Accept it people.

[mattclearing]

2. Whatever man.

eom

[berniew1]

47. Officials controlling recount process to minimize reflection on them, not

to give accurate count.

apparently the officials are trying to minimize recount difference because differences would reflect poorly on their official duties; and officials control the recount process. Those requesting the recount and paying the bills have little influence on process
Sounds like there is nothing to insure that the recount is following the Ohio law and samples are chosen at random as per law. Sounds like they are choosing samples to ensure no problems are found. There are analysts who have documented problems and likely problems by specific precincts and i've seen no indication any of these most problematic precincts are being looked at.

[Chimpanzee]

3. No, WE didn't lose

If you think YOU lost, fine, but you can't talk for the rest of us.

[SueZhope]

4. Prove it !....n/t

[kuozzman]

5. I HATE it when people say that! You do realize that Kerry allegedly lost

by 119,000 in Ohio, which is 3.4% of 3.5M. Tack on a couple dozen thousand people who didn't vote b/c they had better things to do than wait in line for anywhere from 3-10 hours, then switch back the votes stolen electronically and Kerry won. Accept it.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Bush lead now barely 3 million.

Accept it... http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/national.php?year=2004

[bunny planet]

37. oh you mean the 3mil shaved votes.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[freeplessinseattle]

19. the DNC is not involved in this, which you would know if you had been

reading DU, and second of all, it is not the party's fault that 39 machines in OH were never put out this year due to someone's command in OH. plus there are facts upon facts, glitches upon glitches, which if they were really glitches statistically they would not favor * the vast majority of the time, that is simple mathematics. this I know not from reading conspiracy theories, but from my college days.

may I ask just what you are doing to help the dems chances in the future?

[proudtobeadem]

21. freepless..

why do you even bother with posters like that? I thought you were freepless??

[freeplessinseattle]

26. just feeling snarky today after an argument with a "friend" last night (nt

[Name removed]

65. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Straight Shooter]

20. Umm, those polls about bush winning?

None of those polls asked the participants how they thought bush would win. Everyone I spoke with thought Kerry would legitimately win, but bush would steal the election.

You never get the right answer if you don't ask the right question, and the pollsters never dared to ask the right question.

By the way, defiance of reality is called faith-based thinking. And your post should be removed. The idiots are not in cyberspace, they're driving Hummers, listening to Rush and Sean, and watching their "reality shows" on big-screen TVs while stuffing their faces with junk food that rots their brain so they can't sort fact from fiction.

edit html

[middler]

29. So in 2008 when the Democratic candidate loses by

10 million votes instead of 3.5 million, it will just mean that even more fraud/suppression/intimidation took place. Wake up people and do something constructive to help the progressive cause, because this horse is dead.

"The idiots are not in cyberspace, they're driving Hummers, listening to Rush and Sean, and watching their "reality shows" on big-screen TVs while stuffing their faces with junk food that rots their brain so they can't sort fact from fiction." - You are absolutely correct. 100% of Republicans and 99.9% of Democrats are totally incapable of "seeing" this vast conspiracy. Thankfully, the one tenth of one percent you represent have the clarity and vision that I and so many others woefully lack. Thank you, thank you, thank you. You are truly God like, and I bow to your omniscience.

I will now be turning all future thought processes over to your benevolent genius.

[deacon2]

42. Yes, by all means...

let's all pretend that all the statistical analyses, motive and opportunity don't exist. That the GOP doesn't own the machines, the exit polls are fine and the god damn code isn't secret. Yes, let's spend our time rallying round the party yet AGAIN. And then let's just LOSE AGAIN. Then we can tear ourselves apart wondering "why oh why don't people vote for our candidates?" Answer? They do, but it doesn't mean diddle if the votes don't get counted.

I return my thought processes now to your benevolent genius.

[rainy]

44. might as well pretend that the corporate media has nothing

to do with either. They are so balanced and always state the progressive view with such fairness and purpose.

[Straight Shooter]

61. Wow, I've never been referred to as omniscient before

Amazing that a freeper would even recognize the meaning of such a word, much less be able to regurgitate in a vituperative diatribe in a sneering rebuttal which has descended to a gutter level of sniping usually reserved for high-level GOP operatives.

Truly amazing. Yes, indeed. I guess I should be honored. :eyes:

[Name removed]

64. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[formernaderite]

32. more stereotypes...

"The idiots are not in cyberspace, they're driving Hummers, listening to Rush and Sean, and watching their "reality shows" on big-screen TVs while stuffing their faces with junk food that rots their brain so they can't sort fact from fiction."

Except for the listening to Sean and Rush...that describes entire blue areas in my state. Particularly working middle class people, who happen to be of color and vote democratic down the line, and love their new Hummers.
BTW...I notice alot of generalizing here at DU....no wonder so many people are turned off by so many of you.

[Straight Shooter]

63. Composite stereotype

I said nothing about working class people or people of color. I was drawing an all-encompassing image, not singling out individual traits as being representative in and of themselves.

Hummers are a disaster for the environment and I consider them a quintessential symbol of the reason we're in Iraq. The facts speak for themselves, but the fantasy is why they sell, whether to Repub or Dem.

As for reality shows, they seem to be a lot more important than the news about the tainted election or what's going on in Iraq. And that's just the way it is.

[justice4all]

23. the exit poll stats are too suspicious

The statistical analysis done by Steven Freeman is what makes me smell a rat. The people who did the exit polls are very experienced and well respected.

In uncontested states (Freedman uses Utah as an example), the exit polls were right on. In 10 of 11 battleground states, the Kerry recorded vote was less than what the exit polls predicted. Zeroing in on FL, OH, and PA, the odds of getting the observed exit polls if the reported votes were truly representative were said to be 662,000 to 1.

For details see http://www.solarbus.org/stealyourelection/articles/Expldiscrpv00oPt1.pdf

[newyawker99]

38. Hi justice4all!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Name removed]

58. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Fly by night]

59. You obviously haven't read the Freeman paper

He reports that the odds are 250 million to 1, or about twice as unlikely as winning PowerBall with a single ticket. Since you're a virginal poster, you are forgiven for not having read his paper. But it is widely available and I expect another DU reader can add a link for you.

By the way, the 16 state analysis (can someone tell me how to reference that research, as I don't know the researcher who posted those results) of the disconnect between the exit polls and the "reported" vote (and I'm glad all of us are calling it the "reported" vote -- sounds synonymous with "unreliable source") that is also available in the DU archives shows that the disconnect between the exit polls and the "reported" vote was on the order of 13.5 trillion to 1. In that analysis, you are 112,500 times more likely to win PowerBall on a single ticket than that those 16 state results occurred by chance. (Fat chance for such an infinitesimal number!)

So read up, frosh, and get your numbers right. And by the way, the PowerBall examples are pretty powerful and understandable by most voters. I keep two tickets with me all the time (and no, I didn't win with either of them.)

[Vinnie From Indy]

25. NO, I Won't Do It!

Why would a man who has used lying, cheating and stealing as his primary modus operandi his entire life suddenly change tactics? That is just one of the most basic reasons not to "accept it" and "get over it". There is also abundant evidence of anomalies and such that have yet to be explained.

There are several other reasons to contue to push very hard on the issue of vote fraud and suppression etc. One involves holding the Democratic leadership accountable for their miserable performance in the last three elections.

[GetTheRightVote]

28. Are you for real, we did not lose it was stolen and I know how too

But people like you will never help but keep us from having an actual Democracy instead of the dictatorship by partisans who only real goal is to look good for their party so that they can climb up the ladder of that party. I have seen and be involved in so many activies over the last 2 months that I can hardly take the BS this adminstration is giving to us, and even worst how the Demos are going along with it all. I hope one day that we on the left get some courage and start attacking these people back, I want the country my fore fathers built not this BS our politics are spoon feeling to us. I am so sick to my stomach over the whole big picture but I will continue until things are how they were met to be and that will only happened when we act against those who abuse us. So all I can say to you is get over it, they stole it again, get some courage look at the reality of our country and join me in a fight against all of them who blind us to the reality which surrounds us. I will never get over a stolen Democracy which is the big picture.

[mattclearing]

30. Don't take the bait here.

eom

[General Paranoia]

33. If you say it enough times people will believe it...

Accept it people
Accept it people...
...
Accept it, if the people find out what we have done they are going to put us all in jail whether we get past the inauguration or not.
...
Accept it people...

We are coming for you...:evilgrin:

[newyawker99]

39. Hi General Paranoia!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[clem_c_rock]

36. Meaning you have complete faith in the GOP when they control the count...

Meaning You have complete faith in diebold after we've all been shown how completely easy it is to change the results in the central tablulators.

Meaning you have complete faith that there was no foul play in black, democratic precints.

Meaning you have complete faith that there was a level 10 terror alert.

I'm glad you have so much faith in our system.

Now that you cleared that up I guess we really are bringing democracy to Iraq and the bombing of Iran should begin immediately.

[jmknapp]

6. The 550 cutoff eliminates most of the ballot shuffle cases

But these remain:

CLEVELAND 4F (553 cast) -- 215 Peroutka, 29 undervotes
CLEVELAND 11M (557 cast) -- 28 Badnarik, 5 Peroutka
CLEVELAND 5A (626 cast) -- 10 Peroutka, 32 undervotes
CLEVELAND 3B (553 cast) -- 44 Badnarik, 19 undervotes
CLEVELAND 3I (574 cast) -- 72 Peroutka, 21 undervotes

Fingers crossed that they picked at least one of those to recount, but the odds are against.

[OhioWitness]

9. No...

...I did not see those precincts listed. But I only saw half of the precinct names. As far as I can tell, we did not get to pick any of the precincts.

[jmknapp]

10. Please try to check the other half

..if you can.

I would love to see the full list.

[newyawker99]

40. Hi OhioWitness!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[L. Coyote]

18. Will recount detect cross-precint machine use?

If you use the wrong machine and then place your ballot in the correct precinct ballot box, the count will be the same, not?

Quoting (clipped) from another post:

"Maybe this will help you. In Stark, the presidential candidates always appeared in alphabetical order. 1)Badnarik, 2)*, 3)Kerry, 4) removed, 5)Peroutka. ...they would always be in that order, just different positions... 12345 or 23451 or 34512 or 45123 or 51234 ..."

So votes always move up to a specific candidate if two differebt orders are at one location, to 2 specific candidates if threee machine orders are at one locatioon, etc.

This should be detectable, esp given what happens in parallel for US Representative races, other races. These should also have a parallel shift, ie. same number from Dem to Rep. as say, from Kerry to removed. Since those races have a different number of candidates, herein may be the proof sought. It won't be in the recount, right???

[OhioWitness]

7. there's more there than we may ever know

The chosen precincts were supposed to be random. They were not.

A limit was placed on the precincts: no precinct with less than 550 cast votes would be counted.

Why? If there's nothing to hide, why?

If there are any hanging or dimpled chads to be found, they would be found among the precincts where there were machines reported to be broken or working poorly. On election day, voters in inner city precincts were complaining all day of not being able to punch out the chads, problems with styluses, etc. But as far as I know, not one of these precincts was counted (I know the precinct names of about half the precincts counted). Just by limiting the count to precincts over 550 cast votes, they eliminated most of these precincts from the recount.

Many of the precincts counted yesterday were "clean" precincts where there were no problems of any kind reported, including long lines. There were no hanging or dimpled chads of any kind... because the machines were clean and working fine in Bush-won precincts, and many of those were counted in spite of the fact that Kerry won the county by 2-1, skewing the count to precinct's Kerry won by only 4-3.

I can't say more, I'm part of the recount (but not an "insider," I wish I were). And I can't prove that I'm right if we can't look at the ballots of those precincts. Today we're looking at the machines themselves, but I don't know if the insides of the machines - like the grid, the tray, etc. - will be examined. They're looking for other things. Even if they were examined, any damaged grids or trays full of chads that would prohibit a voter from punching out the chads could've been replaced or cleaned out long before now.

And don't give me that bullshit about "no evidence" of fraud. The very act of trying hide something is evidence, and THAT kind of evidence, whether you want to call it circumstantial or not, is mounting rapidly.

[rockedthevoteinMA]

8. Thanks for your input...and hard work Ohio Witness!

And welcome to DU :hi:

[genieroze]

13. no precinct with less than 550 cast votes would be counted?

That makes no sense. Wouldn't precincts with less than 550 votes be less prone to error being there was so few votes to count? If you had your choice to count precincts which would you choose. Ones with thousands of votes or ones with hundreds of votes? Sounds to me that the precincts with thousands of votes were the precincts that were rigged in Bush's favor and the trail has already been covered up.

[KittyWampus]

14. A Hearty Welcome OhioWitness. And Many Thanks For Your Input Here

It is very well written.

[RevCheesehead]

34. I believe tampering with evidence = obstruction of justice n/t

[mulethree]

55. Some Stats

550+ = 121 precincts, 75,647 votes, 57% Kerry
<550 = 1314 precincts, 512,103 votes, 68% Kerry

They're choosing from 8% of precincts and 13% of votes

They will need about 28 of the 550+ precincts to make 3% of the county

This assuming the 550 is presidential votes recorded, not including
under/overcounts

[dewaldd]

12. You know that went through these ballots ahead of time to guarantee match

It's a total farce.

They had a month and a half to rig it--don't you think they did?

[dalloway]

16. yes, but what will the public think when the precincts come back

with no change?

I am amazed I am hearing about this 550 rule for the first time here. Tbat absolutely explains it, but it also makes an uphill PR battle.

I am thinking of Washington where, upon requesting the hand recount, Repugs were saying, "They'll count and count and count until they get the answer they want." Same refrain in Florida 2000. (and now, of course, that it is clear things are going the Dems way in WA, the Repugs are arguing for a REVOTE!).

I hope our people are smarter. They had 4 years to strategize, and I hope they know what they are doing to win the PR war as well as the counting war.

[rjbny62]

17. compare this to the WA recount

with roughly half the recount complete, they have found votes in nearly every county, a total of nearly 800. Amazing that everything is perfect in OH.

[mgr]

27. Apples and Oranges

The Washington work is full hand recount, while Ohio is 3% that is then machine counted. One involves the entire county population of ballots, the other does not. I think you give those that may have performed the election fraud too much credit. All that is needed are one or two precincts or counties where ballot stuffing or alteration occurred. Concordance between machine and hand counts would suggest that the problem is not with the tabulator, if there were no changes to the tabulator between the election and present.

Mike

[newyawker99]

41. Hi mgr!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Ellipsis]

22. ...they used the same preceints in past for recounts?

if so, do yuo have thedata to support that statement? or point me.





must get coffee

k

[idealista]

24. so Ohio has official "recount" precincts, which are kept clean,

and then they can diddle in every way in the other 97% of precincts, without fear of ever being caught?

TOTALLY BOGUS.

And as I 've said elsewhere, the party asking for the recount should be able to come into the recount and choose those precincts on the spot! Why, not if there's nothing to hide?

Obviously, the "Democrats" on these election boards are in bed with the Republicans. Why? Because in their own local communities, in their meetings and social circle, they don't want to make anyone "mad", make waves, be seen as uncooperative? These are part-time jobs, and they have businesses with Republican customers? Everone getting along? Screw American democracy, lets get along with our Republican neighbors, that Secretary of State can make life hard for you. Maybe they have gone along with this kind of sham for so long that they feel guilty too, and like a scandal will implicate them as well.

[demodonkey]

49. Nah I think it's just that they want to avoid a full hand recount...

Both Dem and GOP, these are regular "heartland" people, not criminal types. They take real pride in their work and they want to be honest and do a good job... but they ARE scared of lawsuits, Blackwell, media circuses, and they are hard up for funds to run their BOE offices. They need for that 3% to match up, and they need it bad, so they don't have to pay for (and deal with) a full hand recount.

They are probably playing right into Blackwell and the corporations' hands by doing the little "fudge" of pre-picking and cleaning up their precincts for this recount, but they aren't doing it for those reasons.

They just want to be absolutely sure the 3% matches up so everyone can get on with Christmas and then the next election.

[rdmccur]

31. Why isn't anyone on this thread talking

about the alleged machine tampering that
the new lawsuit involving Kerry-Edwards is about??

[L. Coyote]

35. Precinct/machine switching fraud not detectable in recounts...

Go to this thread for other info on why recount can be the same even though there was massive fraud.

Ballots have different candidate orders for different precincts. Vote in wrong booth (precinct) or switch the machines, and Kerry votes become Bush votes. Undetectable by recount!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=166913&mesg_id=166913&page=

[OhioWitness]

43. we did find some other things that were fishy...

- polling books: signatures didn't add up to the number of ballots. This is significant, but we'll have to see how widespread it was. From what I heard, it was pretty widespread. I didn't participate in this part, the precinct we counted was big, kept our table busy, so I don't know numbers - 2 here, 3 here, 5 here - many precincts. Again, I don't know details, and I would rather not speculate. Hopefully more will be revealed in a press release or lawsuit - don't know more than that.

- ballots seemed pre-sorted. By candidate! Again, I was kept busy with a big precinct, so I only heard about this later. The precinct we did was clean of anything fishy at all, but that was not the case across the board.

Today, I was particularly interested in the voting machines themselves, but I was mistaken - I thought we'd be looking at the actual GRIDS and TRAYS inside the actual voting machines... but we instead inspected the ballots - you know, the pages that flip - to make sure they matched the precinct candidate rotation (anyone wondering why the heck the ballots in every precinct across the state don't match, it's for this reason: visually, it's believed that the first name on the ballot is the one people see first. So in order to make it "even," the names of the candidates rotate, so that Kerry may be 1st in some precincts, Bush in others, Badnarik in others, etc. Seemed stupid to me until I found out why. Learned a lot this week).

Anyway, there were other things discovered that I know less about and would rather pass on speculating about or saying the wrong thing. If I find out more, I will report it, but basically, the "recount" part for Cuyahoga County is over. I hope we discovered enough to use the data, I think we did. But the fact that nothing was random was a disappointment, it undercut the process considerably. As intended.

That's all for now, thanks for the kind words; we're all in this together.

Don't know if any of the recount people read this board (I know one does... :hi: ) but I want to thank them for driving in carloads from Massachusetts and Illinois and for flying in from NY and Kansas and California... don't ever doubt the dedication of these people, they're the hardcore activists. I'm just a local citizen pissed off about voter suppression. These people are serious! My appreciation and kudos to them, and to the VERY hard-working lawyers and coordinators involved in the recount, from all parties. I was very impressed with their professionalism and dedication.

[Igel]

45. So are you saying * wasn't the first name on the ballots in all precincts?

n/t

[BeFree]

60. This is great!

Reading this first hand news is fantabulous!

Thanks for relaying this info to us, OhioWitness. And tell all those people who have come to Ohio from around the country, that we are very interested in their efforts, and we thank them.

Wished I could have made it to Ohio to help write this history.

[rzemanfl]

46. Just what I expected

Quite a while ago I posted a message saying essentially that the precincts would be cherry picked and got a reply that the 3% had to be chosen "randomly." I said I was from Florida and didn't trust recounts.

Well, I still don't.

[demodonkey]

48. The "random" 3% was NOT random... I know 1st hand....

Can verify much of what OhioWitness said such as presorted ballots in trays BY VOTE, etc...

Pollbooks for the "random" precincts all laid out when the recount witnesses arrived...

[Hamoth]

51. then you need to go on the record

and corroborate her story. Call conyers, NOW.

[demodonkey]

53. I am already "on the record"... Not saying too much more here... eom

[rzemanfl]

54. Sorry you had to witness that

Ohio had plenty of time to get all their little ducks in row. The posts on this site are going to be fun stuff for historians-if this place returns to being a free country-but I doubt that anything will change in the short term. I will be almost sixty-two when Bush is finally gone, unless they change the law on that and he "runs" for a third term.

I have been angry every day for four years and have more than four more to look forward to.

They are trying to amend the Florida Constitution to eliminate the separation of church and state. I am too old for this fight.

The bottom line is that the American people are stupid. If only twenty per cent (the rich and the religious crazies) had voted for Bush, he never could have gotten away with stealing the election.

Anyone who truly thinks that Bush is not going to be inaugurated on 1/20 is living in a different region of the same fantasy land he inhabits.

[understandinglife]

50. Check this thread to see just how weird things are in Cuyahoga...

....link:

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/cgi-bin/dcforum/dcboard.c...

And, everyone, NO WAY and YES, THEY CONTINUE TO COMMIT CRIMES would be among the sorts of responses you'd be hearing from me as I read about 'recounts in OH'.......


Peace.

"When Did Bush Know?"

[GetTheRightVote]

52. One very angry upset American Citizen

But on the other hand, Bush and all of his unfaithful to the American Democracy followers are corrupting what was once a glorious country. Even those working and volunteering at the polls are being tainted with the same brush as the party representatives who run the show on Election Day. It is like they are all groupies and seek the approval of their fellow party members. Within their little party sessions they devise ways to get their candidate into office of course without harming the real vote, wonder who they are thinking of ?? At the recount I participated in the great state of Ohio the percincts to be recounted within the County were choosed by the Director of the Board of Elections personally, they were not a random example of the population, they were his example. When questioned concerning this decision of his, he stated, that he wished to use as few machines as possible in the recount as well as the precincts which matched up closes to each other and to the 3% mark the county needed to reach. We were not allowed to view the polling books, the absentee or provisional ballots which have been the areas of most concern. The polling books are the tool designed to work against election fraud yet they were not available for us to view. They wanted to make sure that they got a machine recount on the second time around not a hand count (makes me wonder too, why go to all this trouble, hum). They made sure of it by controlling the 3% that were recounted the first time. Yes, this is how it works in the crooked state of Ohio and the county in which I watched a farce recount happen and Democracy die.

[understandinglife]

56. WE HAVE NO ELECTION. WE MUST FORCE A REVOTE.

All efforts must be brought to laser focus on 6 Jan 2005.

Can the moderators of DU post a call to action on the front page and begin helping everyone coordinate?

So many are so willing to do whatever is necessary; the organization of all that talent and energy needs to emerge. Can DU be that organizing force?

I am going to post this as an 'alert' as well.

Thank you for all you did and do not ever stop fighting; we can prevail if we all join together and focus.

[understandinglife]

57. Cross posted your excellent observations....

...at: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/12/17/202919/94

Want as many people to read of your experience as possible.

We will prevail.

[spooked911]

66. Thanks for trying!!!!!!!!!!!

this recount is all so depressing not to mention confusing-- but bless you for being on the front lines.

[FtWayneBlue]

62. In Sandusky County on Wednesday, the Director handed out

Lists, one member of the Dem, Rep, and GLib teams each picked a precinct to count. I am sure that the GLib was not decided in advance. Don't know about the other two. I had a copy of a letter purporting to be from Kerry's people that I had gotten off of a Yahoo site that recommended a scientifically valid random sampling method for selection of the precincts, and thought about pitching a bitch about it, but didn't think it mattered that much, since "our" precinct couldn't have been decided on beforehand. The hand count matched the machine count in the GLib-picked precinct, after a write-in ballot was correctly re-classified as an undervote since the voter didn't fill in the bubble in the margin. Something that did bother me, though, was overhearing people reiterating a prior agreement that had been made between the Republicans and Democrats about there being "no way we are hand counting all the ballots," when it looked like there was a slight discrepancy between the machine and hand count. (It was later satisfactorily resolved.)