WA RECOUNT: Gregoire Likely to Win w/o 573 uncounted King Co. ballots

[Chasing Dreams]

All counties are in with the exception of Pierce, Spokane, and of course, King county.

As of Noon Pacific time on Friday December 17, Democrat Gregoire has picked up a total of 321 votes relative to the last machine count of 630,834 in the counties that have finished the hand count. That translates to 5.088502 additional votes per 10,000 votes she received in the machine count.

Republican Rossi has picked up 353 votes relative to the last machine count of 758,084 in the completed counties. That translates to 4.656476 additional votes per 10,000 votes he received in the machine count.

If we assume the trend continues in Pierce, Spokane, and King counties, we can simply apply the relative increases each has received so far to the State totals for the machine count -- 1,372,442 for Gregoire, and 1,372,484 (42 vote lead for Rossi at the end of the final machine count). This yields a total of 698 additional votes for Gregoire (.00050888502 * 1,372,442), and 639 for Rossi (.0004656476 * 1,372,484).

The trend indicates Gregoire will gain 59 votes (698 - 639), wiping out the machine deficit of 42 to win by 17 votes.

And as the tread title indicates, this is WITHOUT counting the 573 absentee ballots erroneously thrown out by King County. Gregoire is looking like the winner to me.

Please go here if you want to obtain the data and double check my calculations:
http://vote.wa.gov/general/recount_resultsbycounty.aspx

[Generator]

1. No wonder that Repuke is wanting a re-vote!

I trust them as far as I can throw them. Which is to say not an inch.

[bunny planet]

8. yeah right, now who's the sore loser who's going to count until they get

the results they want. As if anyone wouldn't have called for a recount with a 40something vote lead for the other guy. The repukes are such hippos.

[eleny]

13. Right!

Now we'll see how "not tired" they are when the shoe is on the other foot. They'll be plenty energized to do all sorts of battle.

I'll be listening to Mike Webb tonight after Malloy. His programs have been great since he broadcasts from Seattle.

[bunny planet]

16. Is he on AAR or Malloy's station in Atlanta?

[eleny]

19. He's on KIRO and streams audio

After Malloy, go here at the top of the hour to find the link to Webb
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=latest_threads

I'm trying to remember - that link will take you to Webb's page. At the bottom of Webb's page, you'll see a link to "audio". Click that and then near the bottom of the list of links is a link to listen live.

Someone may have a more direct link. But I just go to the DU Latest page and go from there.

You'll also find the link to Bernie Ward who is on at the same time as Webb. We've got lots of great choices these days!

[BringEmOn]

22. Listen to Mike Webb @

http://stream.mikewebb.org:8000/listen.pls

[pick_a_dilly]

2. WA looks good in BLUE!!!!!

it's slimming!!!!!!!

[bemis12]

3. I agree that

Gregoire is likely to win. I don't think there's any reason to think that projecting out from the other results has any statistical reliability, though.

[Chasing Dreams]

11. Well, there certainly is an error margin, BUT

assuming the trend so far is unbiased it is the best predictor we have.

Still, I think Democratic King County will have even higher levels of added votes overall, increasing Gregoire's victory margin.

I'll bet you a fresh cold one (in spirit) that she wins by at least 20 votes. :toast:

[IAMREALITY]

4. I'm thinking she'll win too

But I kinda still look forward to the repubs being SUPER pissed off when the 573 are counted and valid!

[lonestarnot]

5. WOOOOHOOOOOOOO!

:kick:

[RevolutionaryActs]

6. Let this be a lesson to everyone in the country every stinking vote COUNTS

Good lord this is insane! :crazy:

[Jo March]

7. I agree! Every.vote.counts.period.

That is all that we will settle for.

[freeplessinseattle]

9. YES!! and Seattle (in King co) is relatively Freepless!! wheee! (nt)

[Matariki]

15. freeplessinseattle - love your name!

i'm in seattle too :hi:

[freeplessinseattle]

24. Hello and thank you kineta! pleased to "meet" you, cool people live in

Seattle! welcome to DU, and you are welcome to join other Seattleites at the People's Pub in Ballard on Monday nights, just started recently, so we're all just getting to know each other and are very friendly welcoming.

[Helga Scow Stern]

10. Yes!!!! Maybe this will spur on the NM recount and the needed funds. n/t

[bemis12]

17. There's a world of difference

between a 42 vote lead and 7,000 votes.

[bemis12]

12. PIERCE Co just reported......

and netted 31 for Gregoire. The new total is a net +1 for Rossi, bringing his total lead to +43.

King and Spokane Co's are the only ones left to report.

[BlueFlu]

14. Anyone want to start a pool as to when the first GOPer sues

to have the recount results tossed out when the total goes to Gregoire?

[keepthemhonest]

18. I knew those repukes

were getting mad for one reason or another.i hope wish that could happen in OHIO and also the senate race in Alaska

[montanacowboy]

20. I would guess Spokane Co.

will net more votes for Rossi - but in King Co. - Gregorie has to be able to take it over the top with or without the 573 + 22 absentees not yet counted. I hope all those 500 write in votes for Ron Sims feel just real dandy over this.

Just wait to hear the howls from the repukes - they WILL take this to court - they have already had their party and celebration in Bellevue... can't ruin the little boy's party

[rigel99]

21. GOP Internal PhoneCall says GREGOIRE WINS

Heard from the grapevine that the REPUBEs...
GREGOIRE Wins by ALOT... it's over.. the only reason the repugnants are wanting a whole new vote is they know they lost... this is a BIG VICTORY for Democratic uprising and forcing recounts... let's use this as a landmark to instantiate similar forced recounts EVERYWHERE...

It's time to get the dems who won by landslide back into office

[VTGold]

23. This would be SUCH a boost for us - come on Gregoire!!!

[merwin]

25. Only king county left and Gregoire is behind only 50 votes

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x174005