Making sense of Coshocton County (OHIO) totals. Read.

[RaulVB]

Coshocton

Updated: 3:38 p.m. ET

Bush (Incumbent):

9,277 57% 100% of precincts reporting

Kerry :

6,878 42%

* Source CNN.

"The Coshocton Tribune" says today:

Kerry : 7.413 votes

Bush : 9.830 votes

Can you see???


THERE ARE OVER 1.000 VOTES DISCREPANCE BETWEEN THE ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS AND THE "TRIBUNE" JUST TALKS ABOUT 35 NEW VOTES FOR KERRY.

Is nonsense. Nothing like that can or should happen 45 days after the election.

[RaulVB]

1. Then we have, if we follow the "Nashua Advocate" exercise:

"Despite Bush gaining only 156 votes in the provisional balloting, and Kerry gaining only 115, the "official" results carried by the Coshocton Tribune on December 18, 2004 -- 45 days after the election -- show Bush gaining 553 votes since election day (or 397 non-provisional votes), and Kerry gaining 535 votes (or 420 non-provisional votes). These parenthetical numbers -- 420 votes for Kerry, and 397 votes for Bush -- are absolutely stunning, when one considers they represent a 51.4% to 48.6% victory for the Massachusetts Democrat in non-election day/non-provisional balloting (i.e., in ballots which were either counted late, such as absentee ballots, overvotes, or undervotes; or ballots which were counted pursuant to the countywide manual recount conducted by Coshocton County -- again, one of the only counties in Ohio to do this)."

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The "Advocate"s understanding is that the REPORTED number on provisional ballots for Bush were 156 votes and for Kerry 115.

That number falls very short of the totals reported today. So, we need to complete the figures to match the "totals."

Kerry should have 420 additional votes and Bush 397 additional votes.

According to that, after the election Kerry beats Bush 51.4% to 48.6%, whereas in election night that county gave the "victory" to Bush by a wide margin.

Is outstanding, indeed!

[BeFree]

6. "... one of the only counties in Ohio to do this"

What's that mean?

Is this the only county in Ohio to do a complete manual recount? Am I getting that right?

If so, it shows just how badly we need a complete manual recount of EVERY county in the whole state.

[RaulVB]

10. You got that right! (n/t)

[chomskysright]

2. I'll go hammer on Cochocton Tribute and come back with e mails...

[chomskysright]

5. to the writer: Konkoly at this paper....circulate this...

(I hate it when the writers don't give an e mail address: I went to the paper's site and wrote this):


December 18, 2004

Hello:

What is the reason for the below???

Here is the information re: what was posted on Election night and what your newspaper just said:

Coshocton

Updated: 3:38 p.m. ET

Bush (Incumbent):

9,277 57% 100% of precincts reporting

Kerry :

6,878 42%

* Source CNN.

"The Coshocton Tribune" says today:

Kerry : 7.413 votes

Bush : 9.830 votes



THERE IS AN OVER 1.000 VOTES DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE ELECTION NIGHT RESULTS AND YOUR PAPER INDICATES THAT THERE WERE FOUND ABOUT 35 NEW VOTES FOR KERRY.

So how is this??? ---and 45 days after the election?

Sincerely,

[RaulVB]

12. Thanks!

I called them few minutes ago. I couldn't get through (I am writing Pacific time, west coast) so that might be why.

I'll try again tomorrow and I will ask about some contact information for the reporter writing the not./

I would appreciate if you guys try to do the same.

Thanks.

[TripleD]

3. Ohio SOS website matches CNN

Bush = 9277 57%
Kerry = 6878 42%
Total votes = 16242

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

Coshocton Tribune gives the total as 17329.

Where'd the 1087 votes come from and why aren't they included in the official results?

[RaulVB]

4. 1087 VERY GOOD questions to ask

And I would like to receive a decent explanation.

[chomskysright]

7. here is web site for the paper...

http://www.coshoctontribune.com/customerservice/contactus.html

I have asked for an answer. LOL

[BlueDog2u]

8. Excellent!

Keep us posted what you hear back.

[insane_cratic_gal]

25. I think

It's the 269 provisional ballots cast.

the rest must be absentee ballots?? or found votes.

would of been 818 of them?

[harmonyguy]

9. Coshocton results over time

Here is the Cochocton data I captured from the Ohio SoS site on election night and on subsequent days. As I've previously reported on this board, it appears that the SoS site totals were reset to 0 sometime betweeen N15-2230cst and N17-0910. On D12-1201 I took another read and it showed a gain of 276 votes for a total of 16242, so any additional votes would have been added AFTER D12.

Where no changes occurred, I eliminated most of the redundant data.

Time(cst) Bush Kerry Count
N02-2200 2229 1839 4082
N02-2235 3214 2712 5950
N02-2340 3214 2712 5950
N02-2350 4396 3490 7927
N03-0055 4396 3490 7927
N03-0115 6864 5269 12192
N03-0125 6864 5269 12192
N03-0840 9121 6763 15966
N03-0915 9121 6763 15966
N15-2230 9121 6763 15966
N17-0910 0 0 0
N23-1715 0 0 0
D12-1201 9277 6878 16242

Not sure if this helps or hinders your argument (hey, it's getting late here), but it DOES seem like The Coshocton Tribune is dealing with some weird figures.

HG

[RaulVB]

15. Is a big help, thanks!

My argument is why their totals (The Tribune's) have included 1.087 "extra" votes?

They got those numbers looking at what records?

Is it a mistake?

Why they didn't fix it before publishing the note?

In the real world you can't come up with a 1.087 votes "excess" in your report and then go to bed happy with your math skills!

[Ellipsis]

18. 16000 vote reset

I have read other machines counting backwards at 32000 votes.

1, 2,4, 8, 16, 32, it doing some sort of recalibration

242/11=22 theres 11 again

....people at the recounts have commented about tabulators compilling votes for extended period at times for each canidate too.

love a good puzzle.

hm! hm! hmm! hm! hmmm!

k

[harmonyguy]

27. Don't know about that 16000 reset

THe reset that's visible in the numbers above doesn't JUST apply to this county. All results for all counties appeared to have been reset, and, in fact, some recorded new tabulations re-starting at zero after the reset point.

Hmmmm, this suggests that there were still counts going on. I'll have to take a closer look at those counties' numbers again.

It just so happened that Coshocton was close to 16000 when the rest appears to have occurred.

HG

[Ellipsis]

28. yes, I inferred that from your numbers.

[Firespirit]

11. More Coshocton info

In Moss v. Bush, where they list the counties and the number of votes that are allegedly mistallied (and I hope that they get the hearing and substantiate these very precise figures) --- Coshocton isn't listed. So apparently they believe its election was mostly on the up-and-up.

The county did a full hand count? OK... unless there are reports of procedural irregularities, that's legitimate in my book.

It's quite interesting that Kerry would have a greater handcount gain than Bush in a small, Republican-leaning county.

Take it all together. A small county, Republican, not suspected by Arnebeck/Bonifaz/Truitt of having fraudulent activity, does a full hand count and STILL uncovers a net gain for Kerry.

IF the integrity of the ballots is still preserved--and I'm not sure it is, given what I've been reading--then the whole state MUST be audited.

[RaulVB]

13. Evidently!

This note about Coshocton County is very chilling and a major development.

[fshrink]

14. The difference

between idiot 1 and idiot 2 is 9830-9277=553
between Kerry 1 and Kerry 2 is 7413-6878=535

The total added to both combined 553+535=1088

The difference between gains in non-provisional votes is
420 (Kerry) - 397 (idiot) = 23

The reasoning of the Advocate is that it is the extrapolation of this difference of 23 on non-provisional votes which translates into a several tens of thousands votes state-wide.

This said, the supplementary 817 non-provisional votes popping out of the recount represents a total "error" of about 5%.

I can't find no 35 votes difference nowhere...

[RaulVB]

16. Me neither!

Thanks for translating it to percentages.

Correct, is a "minor mistake" involving a 5% of votes. And I don't those "35 votes" nowhere.

[RaulVB]

17. The advocate seems to be quoting the "Tribune's" piece

The Tribune says that "after the recount was finished, it showed that Kerry won 35 additional votes and Bush lost 9 votes..."

That was what Mary Fry, elections official in that county told the Tribune.

Again, Mrs. Fry seem to feel pretty comfortable working with totals that don't match the ones posted in the OHIO SoS website.

[Firespirit]

19. "Spoiled" ballot validity rate

I saved the 11/2 results from before the addition of the provisionals. For Coshocton, there were 17,331 votes cast. Of these, 15,884 were for the major-party candidates. I don't have info on third-party candidates' totals.

The certified results give 16,242 COUNTED votes. This includes the later-counted votes. I have 9,277 for Bush and 6,878 for Kerry, for a total of 16,155. That means that there were 87 cast for third party candidates.

• 11/2 total cast: 17,331
  
• Provisional ballots and some absentee ballots: approx. 271.
  
• Votes cast, certified results: 17,612 (http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/2004/gen/voterTurn.htm)
  
• 17,612 - 16,242 = 1370 "spoiled" votes
  
• 420 Kerry votes + 397 Bush votes = 817
  

In this county there would appear to be a 60 percent validity rate for these so-called "spoiled" votes. I have heard naysayers on other forums claim that only 10 percent could be of any use at all. It's good to prove them wrong. :D

Over half of the votes that the machines threw out were REAL votes that would not have been counted if Coshocton County hadn't done a hand count.

[americanwoman]

20. My Nov 2 numbers match yours...

NOV 2 NUMBERS:
Bush     9121      
Kerry    6736
Badnarik   17
Peroutka   65
Cobb        0
WriteIn     0
Total Counted 15966
Total Cast    17331  

ADDING 276 PROVISIONALS:
Bush     9277  (+156) 
Kerry    6878  (+115)
Badnarik   17  (0)
Peroutka   67  (+2) 
Cobb        1  (+1)
WriteIn     2  (+2)
Total Counted 16242

One point I think where the Nashua Advocate is off. Look where
they say, "on Nov 3rd CNN reported ... Bush 9277 and 
Kerry at 6878". The problem here is that they appear to
be assuming those totals don't include the provisional
ballots. They do. The Nov 2nd numbers are as listed by
Firespirit (and me).

Still, there's much explainin' to do to get from 16242 to
17331. Plus if they're now saying 17,612 votes cast, there are
nearly 300 undervotes. Arghh.

[chitown]

21. spoiled ballot rate

What happened was that spoiled ballots didn't make up the difference.

In the manual hand recount for all the ballots only 44 new ballots were added.

The difference appears to be that parts of precincts weren't counted the first time which lead to the overall 7.9 undervote for the county which made no sense and was by far the highest in the state.


Before the recount began according to votecobb.org report the witnesses were given a sheet titled dec 10th which showed that over 1,000 votes had been added since blackwell certified on the sixth.

When preparing for the recount they probably saw the 7.9 undervote county wide and fixed the problem.

[nashuaadvocate]

22. What a 60% validity rate means...

...assuming the minimum, conservative figure for undervotes in Ohio (92,000), is that, statewide, it is possible that more than 55,000 of these ballots would register a valid preference for President in a manual recount.

And that's just undervotes. Counties seem to be finding more overvotes than they expected, too.

And there's that pesky issue Dr. Werner Lange uncovered in Trumbull County regarding absentee ballots -- which, again, if true across the state could potentially mean the invalidation of over 62,000 votes.

This doesn't even *touch* the machine-tampering accusations. Or the approximately 220,000 voters who may have left the polls on election day because of long lines (based on an extrapolation of *bi-partisan* estimates for the city of Columbus, published recently in The Washington Post).

The News Editor
The Nashua Advocate
http://www.nashuaadvocate.blogspot.com/

[zapped 1]

23. yawn...

...do ya think the msm is downplaying this a little?

[dzika]

24. The MSM is downplaying,,,

...every significant story in Ohio.

At best, the MSM says the Ohio recounts are going well.

There is a much bigger story behind this that the MSM doesn't want to touch.

[insane_cratic_gal]

26. Maybe you can make sense of it

Ok doing more number crunching I can't make this work out to what they have listed.

there were 3,119 more votes cast then 2000.
Voted 2004 17,612
68.8 % turn out in 2000
in 2004 77.6%
This is how they voted: From the sos oh.

B-9,277 K-6,878 Badnirk-17 Cobb-1 duncan-0 harris-0 parker-0 Peroutka-67 Schriner-2 Zych-0

289 provisionals were cast 269 were deemed vaild. 16,511 -17,612 = 1,101 can we assume this is the spoilage?

unless they are saying that 1,101 are absentee?
New voters this year is 1,613 + 1,506(+increase from 2000 voters)= 3,119

Here is my info maybe you guys can figure it out


2000 B-8,243 G-5,594

Brown-36 Buchanan-73
Hagrlin-13 Harris-0
Nader-295 Phillips-14

People who voted in 2000- 14,493-- I get 14,268
People who voted in 2004 - 17,612-- 16,511

[Ellipsis]

29. 16511/11=1501

Another total number divisible by 11. Is this your number?

and "1101" this a base2 number (binary counting.)

I keep seeing a lot of numbers on different threads with 11, divisable or by 11 when it comes to phantom numbers or miscalculations with tabulators.

k