It's MORE than just OHIO. MUCH MORE.

[TruthIsAll]

ON EDIT: THANKS TO SHARP DUERS:

OH 20,
FL 27,
NM 5,
NV 5
IA 7

and maybe..

NC 15?
CO 9?
VA 13?

..that's 101 EV's

Do the Math:

Kerry: 252 + 101 = 353
Bush: 286 - 101 = 185


Kerry won by 51%-48%.

No question about it.

[hoosierblue]

1. What about VA, WV, and NV?

If they did it only in the swing states, that'd be suspect. I'm pretty sure they even did it in Indiana.

Makes you wonder: How many states did Kerry actually win? I'm thinking big.

[Kota]

4. The exit polls were right on. This election is no more valid than

the Ukraine's.

[GetTheRightVote]

2. I agree with you, but must prove election oppression/stealing too

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

which I believe they have and will find more proof of over next few days, hurray.

[New Earth]

3. i thought Kerry won Iowa?

[TruthIsAll]

5. Edit: My bad? No, Bush won. n/t

.

[New Earth]

6. i think you might mean Nevada

[WritersBlock]

8. He did???

Not according to this, however much we may wish it so:

http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2004/general/CandidateWinners.pdf

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

7. Bush "won" Iowa.

[lthuedk]

9. The discovery in the civil suit may provide evidence of criminal

fraud. Can't civil & criminal be joined? And if this leads to an interstate conspiracy, wouldn't a fed prosecutor have to be assigned?

[davidgmills]

10. RE-exit poll Ohio Now

TIA:

Here's something I sent you several days ago that got buried: just reposted it on Will Pitt's diary as well.

Help Kerry win Ohio. Here's how. Here's what I have been proposing for several days and first proposed it to Truth is All. I will make a few edits for this post.

.......

TIA:

Your nemises on Mystery Pollster, of course, disagree with your analyses of what the exit polls show and even some who post on DU disagree with you as well.

The fact that there is no scientific, mathematical or statistical consensus on the validity of the exit polls has put the sitaution into a stalemate. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong on the mathematics and statistics at this point, because in order for those of us who might be inclined to take to the streets, a genuine clear and convincing consensus from the scientific, mathematical, and statistical community is needed.

I am a lawyer and have been for 27 years. I look at the situation just like I would if I were appealing a case. In law, there is something called the "harmless error" rule. It is what every lawyer fears who is appealing a case. It assumes there is no such thing as a perfect trial. It essentially says that in order to win on appeal, you must be able to convince the appellate court that there is a really good reason to believe that mistakes or errors made by the judge or jury likely caused the rendition of an improper verdict or decision.

Using this analogy to the present voting situation, if we are to convince the public at large that voting mistakes, error,and/or fraud caused Kerry to lose the election he actually won, we must have a clear and convincing consensus by the mathematical, statistical and scientific communities that such is the case. We simply do not have that now. We face the electoral equivalent of the "harmless error" rule.

But we can quickly fix this problem. I believe such a consensus is possible. How? By re-exit polling Ohio now. I am told by your nemises on Mystery Pollster that it would take the polling of about 16,000 voters in Ohio to achieve the requisite accuracy; such a poll would be so accurate that most scientists, statisticians, and mathematicians could not reasonably disagree with the results. They also believe that such a poll is not that unbearably expensive. I propose using three organizations to do one third of the polling each -- Zogby, Harris, and Gallup -- and have the results of the poll made public immediately.

I have asked MoveOn to help raise the money to fund such a poll. So far, I have not had any response. I believe such a poll would vindicate your work and shut up your critics for good. I believe such a poll is necessary now for the sake of the country and our democracy. Please help me turn this idea into reality.


......


I would point out that such a widely accepted poll, if it showed Kerry won Ohio, might raise some serious Cain for the electoral college. It would be one hell of a monkeywrench in the electoral machine. It could be done in a week. It would also make the Ohio judges take this lawsuit much more seriously. All of a sudden, the case is not just an educational exercise. There is independent proof that the lawsuit really could make a difference in the outcome of the election.


davidgmills

[TruthIsAll]

13. David, there is NO stalemate. No one has been able to put a dent

in my calculations; in fact, they have essentially been confirmed by plenty of very smart people.

The onus is on Mitofsky to release the data.
I have used the data that has been downloaded (71,000 out of 113,000 to be polled).

Based on Kerry's' 51-48 lead, Bush needed 56% of the remaining 42,000 to be polled. Not very likely. 113,000 IS A VERY BIG SAMPLE.

WE NEED TO REVOTE.
NO POLLING NECESSARY.
PAPER BALLOTS.
HAND COUNTED.

WHY ARE THE REPUBS AFRAID OF PAPER BALLOTS?
WHY DID THEY OVERRULE THE DEMS ON THE MANDATED PAPER TRAIL?

THERE IS TOO MUCH DAMN EVIDENCE, CIRCUMSTANTIAL AND DIRECT, ALREADY OUT THERE TO COME TO ANY CONCLUSION THAN THE OBVIOUS.

IT WAS STOLEN, PERIOD.

ERGO, MY ANALYSIS IS CORRECT.

COMPRENDE?

[davidgmills]

16. You're preaching to the choir

If everyone believed you, all hell would have broken loose. I want something so irrefuatable that your critics will shut up. All I am saying is do it their way. Do it so that they can't complain.

If we still win, as I think we will, then they will have nothing to say, except that the voters lied about who they voted for. If that is the only argument they have, then I think they will look silly.

When there are mathematical arguments, they only look silly to the mathematicians -- not to the rest of us. I want them to look silly to us all or shut up about it.

[TruthIsAll]

23. Not ONE mathematician has disputed the math.

"When there are mathematical arguments, they only look silly to the mathematicians -- not to the rest of us. I want them to look silly to us all or shut up about it".

Yes. I agree.

The only argument they have is that the Exit Polls were wrong and therefore the votes must have been right.

Even the naysayers don't question it.

Let me put it very simply:

If one believes Bush did NOT steal it, then one must NOT believe in the the accuracy of Exit Polls AND Pre-election polls. The probability using the Binomial Distribution AND the calculations of the state MOE's (based on exit poll sample size) are CORRECT. Of THAT there is NO doubt.

They can question the assumptions, but not the math.

If one believes that Bush DID steal it, then one must ALSO believe that the exit polls were essentially correct. Once again: The probability and MOE calculations ARE correct. Of THAT there is NO doubt.

They can question the assumptions and disbelieve the historical accuracy, but not the math.

Why won't Mitofsky just release the data and put us all out of our misery?

[stellanoir]

24. honorable counselor

If we didn't have an utterly complicit media, judicial system, a frightened,dumbed, numbed, and seemingly slumbering populous, then all "hell would have broken loose."

In my admittedly marginal experience with the legal system, when experts from two different fields compare evidence, often times much is lost in translation.

Perhaps we should all strive to find a common language so that TIA's data can be made understandable to the average citizen.

TIA has been crunching numbers diligently and incessantly ever since I've been on this board well over a year.

No one has ever refuted his data.

The problem is one of documentation and that's precisely why these Repub companies manufacturing these nefarious machines provide receipts for all of their lottery and ATM's, but most strangely not the voting machines which pose to measure the heart and soul of our so called democracy.

So we are left with our devices, the polling data and statistical crunches. Sooner or later, some judge or plutocrat will be astute enough to recognize what in essence, is irrefutable statistical
data in terms of probability.

Yes I am a deluded optimist.

[FogerRox]

11. about a month ago I posted this on another forum

From this summary:
http://rense.com/general59/blatantexitpollfinal.htm

This covers the error 'tween exit polls and the reported results:
Wisconsin: Bush plus 4%
Pennsylvania: Bush plus 5%
Ohio: Bush plus 4%
Florida: Bush plus 7% Minnesota: Bush plus 7%
New Hampshire: Bush plus 15%
North Carolina: Bush plus 9%.


This is the final exit poll and the Published result:
WISCONSIN
Final poll 52-47 ---Kerry won
...Published 50-49

OHIO
Final poll 51-49 ---Kerry won
...Published 49-51

FLORIDA
Final poll 51-49 ---Kerry won
...Published 47-52

MINNESOTA
Final poll 54-44 ---Kerry won
...Published 51-48

NORTH CAROLINA
Final poll 48-52 ---Kerry won
...Published 43-56


Now I will go to this site and enter the real results and see how big Kerrys win really was.


http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc-finalEV.html

Bush 221 EV
Kerry 317 EV



http://bushflashforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3893

SOunds darn familiar dont it bro --LOL


[e-mail]


http://www.51capitalmarch.com

[me b zola]

17. I clicked onto rense.com,

but I couldn't find where they got the final poll numbers. I tried to get to their main page, but it wouldn't come up. Those numbers certainly do make sense, follow the pattern of what they should be, but I'm interested how they got them.

[OmmmSweetOmmm]

22. The biggest place to get away with fraud was Texas. I believe deeply

That Texas was alot closer than anyone could guess. Didn't CBS at some point say that Texas was too close to call?

[chapel hill dem]

12. Kerry won NC?

Hi. I'm new. I only post about things I know about, so I have a very low post count. :)

All of the NC polls leading up to the election showed Bush with a 5-10 point lead, including those from the Raleigh News and Observer which supported K-E.

I know Carteret County was screwed up (If you have ever been there you could have predicted it a year ago) but the rest of the state was pretty clean, at least according to the Democratic-controlled newspapers and the progressive/independent press. I am here in the capital of progressive thought in NC (Chapel Hill) and there is no detectable uproar or debate, other than making fun of the inbred idiots running Carteret County.

There *is* a lot of discussion about the absurdity of paperless electronic voting and how to establish an auditable trail statewide through the General Assembly, but I am baffled about out of staters talking about K-E winning NC.

OK, I'll shut up now.

[FogerRox]

14. KErry may have won Virginia

[oddtext]

25. living here in asheville,

seeing the desperation here to get jackass jr OUT, and the support for K/E, it was BAFFLING to see that * won Buncombe County. as this county's very name is the derivation of the euphimism "that's bunkum", 11/2 truly was BUNCOMBE! bullshit.

yes, i believe NC was FAR FAR closer than the final "tally".

[chapel hill dem]

26. Orange County results

K-E won 66.85% of Orange County (Chapel Hill and Hillsborough) Since I only know one Republican (and maybe his wife -- but I am not sure...), I wonder where the other 33% came from.

Also, the push around here near 11/02 was to try and make the national popular vote swing to K-E since there was little hope of winning the state. FWIW...

[Niche]

15. but NV recount was thrown out already...

Judge Been said their 5 electoral votes "would not change the outcome" maybe it would... if the tally was different.

[McCamy Taylor]

18. it's nationwide, they padded W.'s vote all over so no one would look...

...too hard at Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. And so he could have that "mandate" he is so proud of.

[FogerRox]

19. yes --padding -also NM NV Iowa and Idaho would give Kerry the win.

IIRC

[TruthIsAll]

20. Idaho? Doubt it. It's like Bush winning DC...n/t

.

[McCamy Taylor]

21. he doesnt have to win a state to get a few more votes slipped his way..

...and who is going to look for votes stolen from Kerry and given to Bush electronically in a state whose electoral votes go to Kerry? Would be the absolute safest place to steal a "mandate" for Bush...except that such states are likely to have Democratic Attorney Generals who can be easily persuaded to impound machines and start investigations. Hint, hint.