If only 3% have been recounted, and K/E gained ~300 votes,

[gardenista]

Doesn't that actually imply that if the remaining 97% were recounted, there would be significant gains if all ballots were recounted?

What am I missing here?

[Goldeneye]

1. about 10,000 votes could be picked up if the pattern holds

statewide.

[Griffy]

5. Pattern wont hold... Blackwell chose were to recount...

funny how it was real close.. so no full recount had to be done!

[eowyn_of_rohan]

25. Yeah, I'm laughing...

But you are probably right the pattern won't hold. Buttwell picked the precincts that would show zero change (for one reason or another--pre or post Triad tampering), so that there may well be MANY more K-votes in the other areas than in this 3%

[wendypan]

2. My math is fuzzy, but

At 3% counted and an average pickup of 300. That means there are 100 votes per percentage point. For a total pickup of votes for Kerry of 10,000. Good. But doesn't put him over the top by itself.

[gardenista]

3. Right, we need about 130,000 to take it, but if the uncounted

provisional ballots came into play, that 10,000 could help significantly.

Not getting my hopes up, but just trying to get it all in perspective.

[righteous1]

6. 37,500 provisional votes tossed, if you counted all ,which would

be a bit of a stretch and they broke about like the others JK would pick up ~ 5000 additional votes

[gardenista]

8. That's all? I thought there were more provisionals than that. nt

[righteous1]

15. 150,000 provisionals of which 25% were invalidated n/t

[Vinca]

12. Actually, we only need 65,000

because if Kerry gained 65,000, Bush would lose 65,000. Of course, this isn't Katherine Harris Blackwell math.

[Griffy]

4. your missing the fact that...

blackwell controled WHICH areas to do the 3%... so funny how those matched up... we just dont know exactly what they did till we count all the ballots, and even then, they have had time to make more... its the fact that its NOT transparent... till then we will poke holes in BBV till we see whats inside! BE IN DC on the 6th.. thats the next event! BE THERE!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. That is the essential point- the GOP "passed" this test

one where they wrote the questions and gave the answers to the pre-arranged test takers. IOW the conditions for this recount were the MOST favorable they could arange for themselves, and so the 3%, when projected at 100%, only nets Kerry 10,000 additonal votes in the best case.

[KaliTracy]

9. All the votes were "counted" by machines

the 3% of precincts were hand-counts -- which had to match the machine count, if so, then they did the rest in the precintwith the machine.

If not, then they were supposed to do the rest of th precinct by hand -- which is why Fairfield county was such a shake up (they kept doing it until they could get a machine count).

Unless I am misinformed, I believe all of the precincts were counted -- but not by hand.

[nicho]

10. this is the recount of the entire state

yep, that is correct. All the votes have undergone a recount. Each county counts 3% of the ballots by hand and if the hand recount matches the machine then the other 97% are counted with a machine.

[Peace Patriot]

14. Then you can't say "All the votes have undergone a recount."

Some P.R. advice for whoever handling it for the recount. Call it the "3% recount." The fact that 97% was done by machine (meaningless) is ridiculous; also, that Blackwell chose the precincts. These things really need to be UPFRONT in headlines of all press releases, to give the truth a chance to get covered. If WE don't say it, the MSM certainly isn't going to.

[nicho]

19. that's the way it goes

if a handcount of a 3% sample of the total number from a precinct or county matches the machine count of the same 3% sample, then they do all the ballots with the machine again.

[merh]

24. How many precincts were in each county?

Just wondering?

[KaliTracy]

27. go to the State of Ohio Site

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/11-02-04.htm

and look at the break-down

[merh]

30. Okay, next question, was it 3% of the precincts in each county

or was it 3% of the counties?

[KaliTracy]

39. 3% of the precincts in each county had to match the machine

in order for them not to do a hand-count -- they just fed the ballots back into the machine if they matched. Amazingly, nearly all did...

[KaliTracy]

26. We do not know Blackwell chose the precincts

most of the BOEs did not want to do a hand count, so the precint they chose was to alleviate that -- some --when challenged with the randomness and the law, shrugged and put the precincts in a hat and picked. Most did not. Some had ballots that seemed to be pre-sorted (Green county??) -- many for *, many for Kerry, many for * and so on. Which also is not random.

[nicho]

11. only 3% were hand counted, the other 97% were machine counted

again.

[shady lane]

13. Here are the facts:

If a precinct had an error in the sampling of the 3%, then they recounted the entire precinct. If there was no error in the 3% sampling they did no count.

So what we do not know at this time is what number of precincts had an error in the 3% sampling they did that resulted in the recount and the new totals.

It could be that lets say 10% of the precincts had errors based on the sampling and when they recounted they found more votes for either candidate.

The point is that based on the 3% sampling, 90% of the precincts did not have to do a recount (in my example).

So no you cannot extrapolate this to the entire state.

[nicho]

17. no, all the ballots were recounted

sorry. the 3% are selected to essentially verify the accuracy of the machine count. if the 3% of ballots match up then the entire ballots in the precinct are run through the machine again.

if the 3% handcount does not match the machine numbers then ALL the ballots were supposed to be handcounted.

this result is of all ballots being machine recounted with perhaps some inidividual precincts and counties being handcounted.

[Vinca]

18. In either case, it was the same suspect machines

doing the counting. That's pretty much the problem, isn't it? I thought "recount" meant the whole state counted all the votes by hand. Just running them through the same machines is a waste of time. Cobb should demand his money back.

[nicho]

21. no, hand count is done only if there are descrepencies between

a handcount of the 3% sample and the machine count of the same 3% sample.

[witchhazl]

16. I was also wondering about something Keith Olbermann mentioned

in his earlier blog yesterday, about Coshocton County, which was the only county to do a full 100% recount. He said that county picked up an additional 1000 votes, going from about 16,000 to 17,000. Of the 1000 vote pickup, he said they were "evenly split" between * and Kerry.

I'm not real good with math. The county originally went 57% for *, and 42% for Kerry. The additional votes were split, so about 50%-50
%. So I can see the margin went from 15 down to 0.

Are there implications to be drawn from either of these numbers? The 1000 vote pickup being a 6% pickup in total votes, and the very different margin within the 1000 votes?

[bunny planet]

20. The Arnebeck suit maintains that over 100K votes were switched from

Kerry to Bush. Just hope he has proof.

[Chimpanzee]

22. If the other 97% was hand counted it would be much more!

Only 3% was hand counted in most counties.

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[righteous1]

32. 10,000 would be the most votes that would

be picked up. If you assume that all 300 came from the hand count, then the figure would be 10,000 additional votes. Some of the 300 obviously came from the machine recounting, but what % who knows. So the additional votes would be somewhat less then 10,000, probably closer to 5000-7000

[keepthemhonest]

23. I see where you're going with this

yeah we really need a mathematician on this.Plus what aobut the other counties and precicnts that were not counted if this holds true then 3% throughout the whole state = how many?

How many Ballots were actually run through anyone have a number?

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rzemanfl]

31. But Olbermann's blog said that one county

did a full hand recount and "found" 1,000 votes. That means that very few votes changed in the rest of the state as that county ate up almost all of the vote changes. WTF?

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rzemanfl]

34. I didn't write the numbers down but the net was the result of

subtracting a 400 something gain for * from a 700 something gain for Kerry, so the total change was in the 1,100 to 1,200 range. If 1,000 are from one county then there isn't much left.

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Carolab]

36. Right.

A recount based on machines that were apparently tampered with. 3% of hand-picked precincts, known before the recount even began. Weeks and weeks to "fix" the results. We don't know anything. Discovery is needed.

[rzemanfl]

38. Here's the numbers off of Yahoo news. (AP)

"Kerry gained 734 more votes in the recount, and Bush picked up 449, mostly from disqualified ballots that were counted in the second tally because hanging chads had come loose when ballots were handled again or rerun through counting machines.

That put Kerry 285 votes closer to Bush. The president's victory margin declined by about three dozen more votes when some counties adjusted their certified vote totals."

If 1,000 of those votes came from the one county that did a full recount by hand, then only 189 could have come from the other counties. A little over 2 votes per county. Remember the "chads all over the floor" stories from Florida in 2000? I know people in Florida are considered dottering old fools or redneck morons but can't believe people in Ohio are such skilled chad punchers...

I posted a message long ago that I had no faith in recounts. I still don't.

[Carolab]

37. Makes the argument

for full hand recounts and full investigation of poll books, etc.

We don't know anything from this recount except that they broke laws, and tried to cover up.