OK, so what do the exit polls say?

[quaoar]

Has anyone looked at all of them and is there a summary of the data anywhere?

[ClintCooper2003]

1. Yeah, I looked at all the Presidential ones. Here's a summary:

Midwest 4:00 p.m. Kerry 50% Bush 49%
Midwest 7:33 p.m. Kerry 50% Bush 49%


South 4:00 p.m. Kerry 45% Bush 54%
(However, the South numbers from 4:00 p.m. reflect 61% female and 39% male. Adjusted for 53% female and 47% male, the figures are still 45% Kerry and 54% Bush, but Bush almost reaches 55% and Kerry almost falls to 44%)
South 7:33 p.m. Kerry 45% Bush 54%


East 4:00 p.m. Kerry 57 Bush 41
East 7:33 p.m. Kerry 58 Bush 42


West 4:00 p.m. Kerry 53 Bush 45
(However, the West numbers from 4:00 p.m. reflect 60% female to 40% male. Adjusted for 53% female to 47% male, the figures are still 53% Kerry (52.8) and 45% for Bush (45.2).
West 7:33 p.m. Kerry 53 Bush 45.
(Once again, the female quotient dramatically overshadows the male quotient, 56 to 44%. Adjusted for 53% female and 47% male, the figures are 53% Kerry and 46% Bush.)


General Exit Poll (nationwide)
4:00 p.m. 51% Kerry 48% Bush
(The female to male ratio was 58 to 42. Adjusted for 53% female and 47% male, the figures are approximately 50.2% Kerry and 47.8% Bush).
7:33 p.m. 51% Kerry 48% Bush. Here the female to male ratio is 52% to 48% and Kerry is holding steady at a 3-point lead.

[quaoar]

2. Thanks

That's quite stunning.

So I guess the Republican spin is going to be that the exit polls were flawed somehow, even though they have been dead on in previous presidential elections.

[Time for change]

3. Here's two pretty good summaries

This is the national exit poll, which shows Kerry with a 2.6% lead over Bush nationally:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

And here's a very good report on it:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/PopularVotePaper181_1.pdf