Arnebeck Election Contest - Disputed Votes Analysis

[KerryOn]

I played for a while to night, and finally summarized how Arnebeck arrived at the numbers for the votes in dispute for each county as listed in the Election Contest.

They arrived at the numbers by deducting the votes for the Supreme Court Justice race. (I don't know what it all means yet, but wanted to get it posted.)

(Bush Votes-Moyer Votes)-(Kerry Votes-Connely Votes)/2

Here is the spread sheet:
http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/OhioDisputedVotes2.htm

[mulethree]

1. Nice - thanks!

There were 2 sets of numbers, one regarding the Kerry race and
another for the Connally race.

Same calculation, the Kerry numbers are positive and the Conally
numbers are the negative.

[KerryOn]

2. They only contested in the counties where

Moyer's votes exceded Kerry's. There are a few counties in which my calculated numbers dont match. I either have a mistake somewhere, or they were using different data.

[mulethree]

9. They contest both

The original lawsuit contested both the presidential and the chief justice races.

It had a section 100 with the numbers you are referring to where Moyers votes exceed Kerry's.

Another section 102 had the opposite cases, where Conally exceeded Kerry.

Now they are two seperate lawsuits, but both races are still being contested and this calculation is a part of it.

Thanks for the formula, I had tinkered for a while without finding it.

[KerryOn]

10. Your welcome..

It took me a while. I looked at the numbers until I was blue in face, trying to figure out what they did.

I had a spread sheet that was probably twice the size of what I ended up with, with percentages etc. Finally all the numbers fell in place, and then it took me quite sometime to delete what was no longer required, and to find out where everything was coming from.

I just started adding and subtracting, and it all fell into place by accident.

[KerryOn]

11. I forgot to mention that I updated the chart

It know includes the disputed votes for the Supreme Court Justice.
The calculation for the disputed votes is the same.

http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/OhioDisputedVotesSC.htm

[roseBudd]

3. There are those who have suggested that Connaly polled well in SW OH

counties because Supreme Court justice does not have party affiliation on the ballot. A Warren County DUer has reported that in Warren County republican voters would have no problem remembering the name of the republican supreme court candidate because Moyer yard signs were everywhere.

[Andy_Stephenson]

4. Did you see the absentee report from Warren County

I posted it here last night. Bonnie McFadden and I went and counted the absentee votes. There was a big difference in the numbers. I will find the link and post it here in this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x217646

[KerryOn]

5. No I didn't

Thanks for pointing out the thread. Those are very interesting numbers. It sounds like Warren county has more than just a couple of problems.

[berniew1]

6. This is just one set of numbers; not the only ones used; but fraud is issu

Most of the support is at Richard Phillips web site
http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
and
the Free Press web site www.freepress.org
departments
But they've also gone beyond that; done surveys of entire precincts to document fraud; have affidavits from voters, experts, officials regarding fraud, etc.
And the Greens have documented a good bit of fraud; as indicated on their web site; see thread on Greens documentation

[KerryOn]

7. Thanks for the link to northnet

I have not been to that site before. It looks like I could spend days reading all he data found there.

What are the other set of numbers that were used?

[KerryOn]

8. Updated Chart

Showing the disputed votes for the Supreme Court Justice in Ohio.

Arnebeck is asking that the disputed votes shown be added to Connally's total and the same amount would be deducted from Moyer's total votes.

The formula is the same for all the counties being disputed. (For President and Supreme Court Justice.) Some how I have a hard time believing that this will stand up in court, without some other form of proof, now that I know how they arrived at the disputed numbers.

http://my.core.com/~dlrslr/OhioDisputedVotesSC.htm