Those pesky exit polls are still staring us in the face...

[k8conant]

You can see above that the corrections done by Mitofsky et al subtracted from Kerry's tally. Which voters were subtracted? I wonder how they justify any confidence in the rest of the exit poll survey?

[KerryOn]

1. Your chart really puts things into perspective. n/t

[New Earth]

2. where you have your times

shouldn't that say 11/3/04 1:24 AM?

[k8conant]

3. It said PM on the data I got...but it probably was first released...

in the wee hours of Wednesday.

[Carolab]

13. I'd say that the flipping occurred right about 1:20 a.m.

Because I have a screen shot from the Minnesota SOS website that gives over 8,000-9,000 votes in the 6th district to each of the third party and write-in candidates, while there were only a few hundred reported in the other 7 districts. This screen shot is dated 1/3/04 and the time is 1:20 a.m.

[Nothing Without Hope]

4. Your table makes some questions easy to ask

Let's hope we can get some truthful answers.

[meganmonkey]

5. Wow! That's all. n/t

[many a good man]

6. What kind of adjustments do they make as SOP?

Don't they always have to adjust their numbers after the election has ended to fine tune them for voter turnout and stuff? What's the normal expected MOE for the raw polling versus their final release after adjustments? Not just for this year, but as a rule.

Didn't Ohio exit poll numbers make an identical kind of flip? How many states flipped 3%? Three is a number that keeps popping up...

[spooked911]

7. Wow! What a flip!

Probably that is when they started adjusting their numbers with real vote data.

But of course the question is: was the vote data they mixed in legitimate or not? And why WERE even the late exit polls so far off from the vote count?

This is incredibly important info and we need ANSWERS!!!!

[berner59]

9. Didn't Curtis mention that magic combination...

of 51-48 in the program he designed?? Pretty strange that it ended up that way...how glaring is this??? Wake-up Senators!!!

[candice]

8. Washington Post, server went down

"... a server at Edison/Mitofsky malfunctioned shortly before 11 p.m. The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday. The crash occurred barely minutes before the consortium was to update its exit polling with the results of later interviewing that found Bush with a one-point lead. Instead, journalists were left relying on preliminary exit poll results released at 8:15 p.m., which still showed Kerry ahead by three percentage points. It was only after the polls had closed in most states and the vote count was well underway in the East that it became clear that Bush was in a stronger position in several key battlegrounds, including Ohio, than early exit polls suggested."

The totals for Bush and Kerry got flipped after the server went down. The fact that Mitofsky won't release the raw polling data to Conyers and this inexplicable flip, does make one wonder if the entire election was as clean as Ken Blackwell's farce in Ohio.

[Lauri]

10. The 12:33 AM numbers have disappeared - Mitofsky computer malfunction

Great chart. That is the point. The % swing doesn't make sense. Another DU thread is referring to the 12:33 AM numbers but according to the Washington Post article, Mitofsky computers had a malfunction and had to go to 'backup systems' - "The glitch prevented access to any exit poll results until technicians got a backup system operational at 1:33 a.m. yesterday."


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=219264&mesg_id=219264

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html

[Carolab]

14. I don't buy that glitch AT ALL

they wouldn't have been that careless.

It's a load of BS.

[Fly by night]

11. GREAT CHART!! And clear enough for anyone to understand.

I'll show it in Nashville tomorrow at our Gathering To Save Our Democracy, in front of TV cameras from all major networks, our newspaper and our NPR radio station. Subtracting votes from Kerry and giving Bush more votes than voters in the last sample -- your chart says it all.

[k8conant]

12. Please pass it on...

I've gotten dizzy looking at numbers myself and wanted to boil it down.
I'm glad it's helpful.