Analysis: How did Bush get 63.6% of the final 623 polled?
Kerry was the solid winner in EVERY REGION but the south.
Kerry won the VAST majority of NEW voters in EVERY region:
70% East/West; 54% Midwest/South
Bush got 48.1% of the FIRST 2545 polled.
Bush got 63.6% of the FINAL final 623 polled. WTF?
This brought him from 48.1% to 51.3% of the 3168 total.
The MOE for the 3168 polled of the 11,000 who responded to the
question: "Who did you vote for in 2000" is 1.78%.
Pretty tight. So the responses are very accurate.
Bush got 48.1% of the initial 2545 polled.
He got 421 of the final 663.
What are the odds of Bush getting at least N of the next
663?
We assume 48.1% as his true mean.
Once again, using the binomial probability function, where N
is the number polled going for Bush of the final 663.
In Excel:
Prob = 1-BINOMDIST(N,623,0.481,TRUE)
N Prob Odds = 1/Prob
300 47.3046924% 2
320 4.74269085% 21
340 0.05303931% 1,885
360 0.00005261% 1,900,953
380 0.00000000% 24,406,050,179
390 0.00000000% 6,429,121,523,727
395 0.00000000% 37,219,831,631,161
400 0.00000000% 47,657,138,913,974
The probability for N= 421 cannot be calculated in Excel.
Date Time N K B K% B%
11/02 4:00pm 1916 977 900 52.1% 47.9%
11/02 7:30pm 2545 1295 1198 51.9% 48.1%
11/03 1:24pm 3168 1536 1619 48.7% 51.3% <<???
Change 623 240 421 36.4% 63.6% <<?????
.................................................
4pm K B K% B%
East 206 165 55.5% 44.5%
West 234 180 56.6% 43.4%
South 272 337 44.6% 55.4%
Midwest 239 225 51.6% 48.4%
Total 951 906 51.2% 48.8%
.......................................................
VERTICAL 383
EAST...... 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 16 19 11 - 39 18 10.2% 4.7%
Gore 45 70 13 - 144 21 37.7% 5.6%
Bush 36 6 74 - 12 122 3.2% 31.9%
Other 4 5 2 - 10 3 2.7% 0.9%
101 100 100 206 165 53.9% 43.1%
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K % B % K B
No vote 16 69 31 - 11.0 5.0 42 19
Gore 45 88 12 - 39.6 5.4 152 21
Bush 36 9 91 - 3.2 32.8 12 125
Other 4 - - -
Total 101 53.9 43.1 206 165
55.55% 44.45%
.......................................................
VERTICAL 428
WEST 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 15 20 8 - 47 14 10.9% 3.4%
Gore 40 70 4 - 164 7 38.3% 1.7%
Bush 40 6 87 - 14 157 3.3% 36.6%
Other 6 5 1 - 12 2 2.7% 0.4%
101 101 100 237 180 55.3% 42.1%
428
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K % B % K B
No vote 15 73 23 2 10.95 3.45 47 15
Gore 40 95 4 1 38 1.6 163 7
Bush 40 8 91 0 3.2 36.4 14 156
Other 6 43 10 28 2.58 0.6 11 3
101 54.73 42.05 234 180
56.55% 43.45%
............................................................
VERTICAL 632
SOUTH 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 16 19 13 - 52 44 8.2% 6.9%
Gore 35 69 6 - 187 20 29.6% 3.2%
Bush 47 6 81 - 16 273 2.6% 43.1%
Other 3 5 0 - 14 0 2.1% 0.0%
101 99 100 269 337 42.5% 53.3%
632
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K% B% K B
No vote 16 54 43 2 8.64 6.88 55 43
Gore 35 90 9 0 31.5 3.15 199 20
Bush 47 6 92 0 2.82 43.24 18 273
Other 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
101 42.96 53.27 272 337
44.64% 55.36%
.....................................................
VERTICAL 473
MIDWEST 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 15 16 14 - 38 31 8.1% 6.6%
Gore 39 69 6 - 165 13 34.9% 2.8%
Bush 44 11 79 - 26 177 5.6% 37.5%
Other 3 4 1 - 10 2 2.0% 0.5%
101 100 100 239 225 50.5% 47.5%
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K% B% K B
No vote 15 54 46 - 8.1 6.9 38 33
Gore 39 93 7 - 36.27 2.73 172 13
Bush 44 14 86 - 6.16 37.84 29 179
Other 3 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
101 50.53 47.47 239 225
51.56% 48.44%
..........................................................
VERTICAL
4PM-1916 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 15 18 12 - 176 108 9.2% 5.6%
Gore 39 70 7 - 684 63 35.7% 3.3%
Bush 42 7 80 - 68 720 3.6% 37.6%
Other 4 4 1 - 39 9 2.0% 0.5%
100 99 100 968 900 50.5% 47.0%
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K % B % K B
No vote 15 62 37 1 9.3 5.55 178 106
Gore 39 91 8 0 35.49 3.12 680 60
Bush 42 9 90 0 3.78 37.8 72 724
Other 4 61 12 16 2.44 0.48 47 9
100 223 147 17 51.01 46.95 977 900
.....................................................
VERTICAL 2545
7:30PM 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 17 19 14 14 246 168 9.7% 6.6%
Gore 38 68 7 27 881 84 34.6% 3.3%
Bush 41 8 79 11 104 947 4.1% 37.2%
Other 4 5 1 48 65 12 2.5% 0.5%
100 100 101 100 1295 1210 50.9% 47.6%
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K % B % K B
No vote 17 59 39 1 10.03 6.63 255 169
Gore 38 91 8 1 34.58 3.04 880 77
Bush 41 9 90 0 3.69 36.9 94 939
Other 4 65 13 16 2.6 0.52 66 13
100 50.9 47.09 1295 1198
.......................................................
VERTICAL 3168
Nov3 2000 K% B% N% K B K% B%
No vote 17 19 15 292 243 9.2% 7.7%
Gore 38 68 7 1044 113 33.0% 3.6%
Bush 43 8 77 123 1247 3.9% 39.4%
Other 3 5 1 48 77 16 2.4% 0.5%
101 100 100 48 1536 1619 48.5% 51.1%
HORIZONTAL 2000 K% B% N% K% B% K B
No vote 17 54 45 1 9.18 7.65 291 242
Gore 37 90 10 0 33.3 3.7 1055 117
Bush 43 9 91 0 3.87 39.13 123 1240
Other 3 71 21 3 2.13 0.63 67 20
100 48.48 51.11 1536 1619
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