Jan 6th Prediction: Bush 246 EVs, Kerry 251

[berni_mccoy]

My instinct tells me that Conyers is going to attempt to contest BOTH Ohio and Florida.

I believe this because the fraud investigation started in Ohio and there is as much evidence of fraud in FL as in OH, but people have ALMOST ACCEPTED we'd lose FL to FRAUD ANYWAY given the 2000 election.

There is some serious evidence in both these states, not to mention the conflicts of interest.

Keep in mind there are TWO Democratic Senators from Florida, both serious Bush Haters.

It's just a hunch, but I think this may be the Ace up Conyer's sleeve.

And this is also why it's NOT POINTLESS for Senators to stand up for the objection.

[ramapo]

1. Nice fantasy...

Never in a billion years will it happen.

[bowens43]

2. Not a chance.

There is NO way a Republican controlled House and Senate is going to allow the electoral votes of Florida and Ohio to be negated. Having a Senator object does not mean the electoral votes will be cast aside.

[indianablue]

3. NO SENATOR IS GOING TO OBJECT.....

it is just that simple.

Democracy as we knew it or thought we knew it is over.

Facism is here to stay for a very long time.

[meganmonkey]

10. How do you know?

You say that like it is a fact.
Care to elaborate?

[xultar]

14. Let's be for real...You gotta know that with a consession by Kerry

it really doesn't matter. No Senator will take the chance to be out there on their own.

[meganmonkey]

18. I was simply asking Indiana Blue for details or evidence. n/t

[xultar]

20. I'm sorry if you thought I was being rude. I was kinda saying it in a

come on quit' playin voice not a nasty one. That's not my style.

[meganmonkey]

27. I know, I wasn't trying to be rude either

It's just I've heard all the negative assumptions before and I don't see why we can't all wait about 3 more days, when we'll know for sure. All these definitive statements that there is NO WAY a senator will stand up - has anyone spoken to all the Senators? Have statements been released to this effect? No. So what is the point of saying things like this RIGHT NOW?

Well, if no senators stand up, I won't be surprised, frankly. And then you all can say 'I told you so', and be right, and feel better.

Meanwhile, a lot of us 'dreamers' will continue to work for our democracy. Not to say that the others aren't fighting for that, that's the irony of it all - we are all on the same side. :shrug:

on edit: I mean 'you' figuratively - not specific to you...

[xultar]

41. It is human nature. WE don't want to be too disapointed if it doesn't

go our way. 11/2 caught us buy surprise. I don't think we want that to happen again.

[meganmonkey]

42. Well,. I guess I'm not human

First of all, I would rather hope for the best. I don't live in a fantasy world, I just refuse to expect the worst. I'd rather be disappointed in other people then to live my life expecting bad to get worse.
Second of all, 11/2 did NOT take me by surprise. You could see fraud coming a mile away. They stole it in 2000 and we haven't fixed a damn thing. Surprised? Will you be surprised again in 2008 when it happens? I won't. :shrug:

[Der Blaue Engel]

51. Then stop reading threads like this so that you won't have to worry about

it. It baffles me why so many "NEVER GONNA HAPPEN" posts are suddenly necessary. (Or maybe it doesn't.)

:crazy:

[googly]

37. Because the Senators are happy and fat witheir status & power

and fringe benefits of being a senator, and they will never
rock the boat.

[meganmonkey]

40. Gee, that sounds like fact!

Thanks for clearing it up :eyes:

[Name removed]

21. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jo March]

24. So when you called the Senators, they told you they weren't objecting?

I'm curious to know.

[rodeodance]

25. just a gut feeling-but I agree--no senator will step up to the plate.

[iconoclastNYC]

4. If they do contest, it better be huge! Many senators and bombshell details

The element of surprise is a beautiful thing. I've held out hope all this time that the democrats have been smart in keeping this hush hush from the top down. The fact that Air America Radio has not even touched the need for election reform really says alot. I think the word went out that we need to wait a while until the right moment to pounce.

A theory I've had is maybe they have just laid a trap for obstruction of justice.

If you let the repukes think they are going to get away with it maybe they'd get sloppy and leave some fingerprints or make a crime that is easy to prove. Looking at what we know about Blackwell and the recount and his refusal to testify (depo) makes he hope!

[rkc3]

5. I'd love to believe what you've typed, and maybe I'm just too jaded,

but there's no way in hell there will be a serious contest over this election. If one senator stands up to protest the numbers it will be a miracle and he'll be shouted down in short order.

Again, we can all hope, but this one is not worth the effort.

[Der Blaue Engel]

52. It's absolutely worth the effort

Giving up a fight because you think the odds are against you is foolish. I went to the Boxer Rebellion rally today and I am totally psyched. She may not stand, but it won't be for any lack of effort on my part.

[righteous1]

6. Care to make a wager on that? I'll give you humongous odds

[SharonRB]

7. Nice dream, but it will never happen. n/t

[SicTransit]

8. Here is my take on Jan 6th -

You will not get electoral reform if there is an objection by both a Representative and a Senator on Jan 6th.

As soon as there is an objection from a Representative and a Senator - *without* hard proof of fraud - that raises the stakes and makes it an *extremely* partisan issue. Republicans will see it as a naked (if unsuccessful) grab for power and any talk of electoral reform after that will be taken only as a further attempt to undermine Bush's presidency, and, since Republicans are in the majority, they will simply not allow it.

So - IMO if there is an objection by Rep+Sen on 6th, you can kiss goodbye to any chance of a Congressional investigation of the 2004 elections and to any chance of electoral reform any time soon.

So the Senator(s) have to decide what is more important - grandstanding or having any chance of having some kind of electoral reform and/or Congressional investigation of the elections. What do you think they will decide?

[righteous1]

13. Hmmmm interesting take on it, you may have a valid

consideration there

[KittyWampus]

15. LOL! Naked Grab For Power :D Yeah, Like The GOP Sees Dems

as wonderful, engaging coworkers now.

And what's also funny is you either don't know there is hard evidence of fraud already or pretend not to know.

[SicTransit]

29. There is no hard evidence of fraud -

no matter how many times you say that there is. Shouting "fraud" in Congress with no proof will only brand the Senator as a tin-foil-hatter. Having that label on you is not very conducive to legislative work.

[KittyWampus]

46. You Are Willfully Ignoring The Evidence Posted Ad Naseum Here.

further evidence can only be produced by a full hand recount and dissecting the codes.

[lonestarnot]

62. You get an F in reading vote suppression evidence, lockdown evidence

and recount tampering evidence!

[iconoclastNYC]

16. Oh the way to reform is to be silent? Yeah right.

Nice try man. Reform never happens by itself. We need a crisis atmospher to get a 'mandate' for change. I say bring on the constiutional crisis. We can handle it and it may give us clean elections for a change.

[SicTransit]

31. There's not gonna be any "constitutional crisis". If

there is a Senator that stands up (and I very much doubt that will happen) there will be a 2 hour discussion after which both Houses will vote to reject the objection and the proceedings will continue. So - for 2 hours in the limelight you will destroy any chance of cooperation that could have possibly existed on electoral reform or on investigating the 2004 elections.

[Salomonity]

57. and worse

Can you imagine how much fun the GOP spin machine will have? "Democrats say they want to count every vote. Then they try to ignore 6 million votes in Florida and Ohio". It'll be unfair and inaccurate--all we want is investigation--but the media will let them get away with it.

I don't belive that there are alternate electoral votes for Kerry out there. That means that Congress on the sixth has only two options: to take the Bush electors, or take none, pending an investigation. It would looks *horrible* to try to discard the votes two of the biggest states in the country without absolutely ironclad proof that will convince most of the country. Most of the country isn't convinced, and honestly, what I've seen until now just isn't going to be convincing.

-The chair of the Franklin county Democratic party is saying that the elections people did their jobs fine. He's on the County Board of Elections, btw. Not one prominent politician in either Ohio or Florida has challenged the election, as far as I know.

-It's very hard to make a credible case based on exit polls when Mitofsky, who conducted the polls, says they don't show fraud.

-They've done two recounts. Did them shoddily, but did them. They didn't show anything particularly shocking.

Only something like 15-20% of the country thinks that fraud tipped the election. More people belive in UFOs than think Kerry won. No mainstream politician is gonna touch this, guys.

Concentrate on opposing Bush from now until 2009; trying to put Kerry in the White House is hopeless, and damaging to try.

[m.standridge]

17. what do you mean by "electoral reform"

It isn't going to matter what "reforms" are enacted if we don't have valid elections to back them up.
The courts aren't going to help. All we've got left is this congressional challenge thing, which is a lever to getting some action now, before it's too late.
What kind of crazy "electoral reform" do you think a GOP-dominated congress is going to enact, given that Electoral College is their head man's claim to fame to begin with?

[SicTransit]

32. Please explain to me - exactly HOW

the "congressional challenge thing" is a "lever to getting some action"? You may not be aware of it, but Republicans hold all the power in the Senate and in Congress. Without at least *some* cooperation from *some* Republicans you do not get *any* action whatsoever on *anything* in Congress - do you understand that concept?

By doing the "congressional challenge thing" you are going to piss off *every* Republican in Congress, thus precluding the aforementioned cooperation. This is not rocket science. This is simple logic.

[jsascj]

60. Either way there will be

no Congressional investigation of the 2004 elections and nothing will change. Then EVERY Dem senator will lose their next election.

THEN maybe, just maybe, they'll wake up.

[rox63]

9. As of 1/4/05

There will be one Democratic Senator and one Repug Senator from FL. Bob Graham will no longer be a Senator when Mel Martinez is sworn in as the new FL Repug on 1/4/05.

[forgethell]

11. No Senator will object; here's why.

No one gets to be a US Senator without a finely tuned political ear, an instinctive appreciation of the odds of success or failure, and a well-developed sense of survival. ALL THREE are working against any acceptance of a fraud challenge.

You'll see that I'm right

[liam97]

19. They also usually

have to deposit their spine before they are sworn in (with some exceptions such as Byrd)

[forgethell]

28. Absolutely n/t

[saracat]

38. Baloney. If they DON'T object, their ear is tin.

Whose support would they lose? The repugs? And a challange would only bring electoral problems to the forefront. If they don't stand up, they can kiss goodby the grassroots support that revolutionized this campaign.

[forgethell]

43. Maybe, but they

still won't object. Democratic Senators, well all Senators IMO are cowardly careerists. they do not see a groundswell of support that could fertilize a spine for them.

You'll see. I wish I was wrong.

[ChicanoPwr]

12. I thought Martinez (R) was the new Senator for FL

[The Gigmeister]

22. Wrong.

Conyers is just slinging shit (Good for him, he can afford to do it...He's unbeatable in his district), to damage the Idiot in Chief.

Nothing will come from this. Zero.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[orleans]

26. CALL ALL THE DEM SENATORS

There is a website for their phone numbers. Just call them and leave a message. Most of their message takers don't ask where you are calling from. Only one asked for my address (and I declined to give it) and only a two asked for my name, and two asked me what state I was calling from.
Pick up the phone!
Hillary's line was busy and then I got put on forever hold, so I sent her an email.
Barbara Boxer was another long hold call, so I emailed her too.

and while you're phoning, also leave a message to not confirm Alberto Gonzales for Durbin (il), Leahy (vt), Biden (de), Kennedy (ma), Schumer (ny)--they are on the senate judiciary committee.

[Freddie Stubbs]

30. That would still be a Bush win

If no candidate get a majority in the electoral college, so it will go the the House of Representatives. Guess which party has a majority there.

But that itself is an unlikely event. For that to happen, both Houses of Congress would have to vote to disqualify those states' votes. Do you think that both the House and Senate, which now have larger Republican majorities than before, will vote to do that?

[bowens43]

36. never mind......

on doing further research it's not really clear.....

[Yupster]

33. If that happens, of course

Bush would still win anyway.

[googly]

34. you need to take a refresher course on how congress works

and another point, most of the elected democratic senators and
congressman are happy with the status quo, and happy in the power
they wield, and happy in the fringe benefits of being in congress.
They are not about to rock the boat.

[txindy]

48. If they believe fraud exists on this scale, they'd better start rocking

Because their positions will end in the next election. In which case, they have absolutely nothing to lose. And people with power who have nothing to lose can be a mighty force.

[googly]

58. That's just the point...they DON"T believe they will lose next

time because 95% of the democratic senators are from safe
seats and do not think the so called "tin foil hatters" will
matter much. Most of them have been elected with large margins
and they are not in the least being worried. On the other hand
if they take a position without solid proof that there was
widespread fraud, they believe they have a lot more to lose.
That is my take, FWIW.

[berni_mccoy]

35. Who said anything about Kerry Winning?

All I said is that they will contest BOTH OH and FL!

You naysayers are a bunch of negative self defeating losers!

What's the point? Seems like no one really cares here anyway.

[jsw_81]

39. What fantasy world are you living in?

John Conyers is going to change the outcome? Please. That is so absurd that I don't even know how to respond.

Face it: Without solid, smoking gun evidence of a massive GOP conspiracy to rig the election, Bush is headed for a second-term. I suggest you get used to that fact.

[berni_mccoy]

44. Wow, now I know how Gore felt at the Certification of his loss...

No one will stand up for this cause, why should the senators or any congressperson for that matter.

No wonder Democrats are losing control.

You people are truly hopeless... good luck to you all.

And you must have ignored my previous post. I never said anything in my original post about Kerry winning or changing the outcome. The point would be that Conyers would object to TWO states, not just one.

Sure there's an implication there... that Kerry gets more EVs, but as so many of you pointed out, unless the House chooses Kerry, he won't win.

However, if you accept that the House could object to both OH and FL, wouldn't it reason that they would elect Kerry over Bush? I know, I know, as so many of you pointed out, this is just fantasy, but for god's sake, can't a person have a dream around here?

Holy Shit People!

[glitch]

45. Hang in there berni - the next three days are going to be rough

Expect the best, prepare for the worst, that's what my grammy always said.
:hug:

[stlsaxman]

55. Remember- in 2000 Gore couldn't ask any Senator to stand because

he was vice-president and it would have been totally inappropriate as
president of the Senate. But because we aren't the party in power-
the shoe is on the other foot and as soon as Cheney raises the gavel
against the Dem Senator who stands up- the shit's gonna fly like no
one's ever seen...

Dem Senators are NOT in the bind we were in in 2000, they cannot use that
against us this time.

[txindy]

47. Why not? Contest one, contest both.

I think it's doable. It certainly couldn't hurt. They may want to get the ball rolling first with Ohio, though. Although,... Jebbie is out of the country right now, so going after Florida at this time would be rather inspired.

I say they should go for it. :toast:

[mdb]

49. Then we have the Repubs not going for this.

But I believe your prediction doesn't work that way. Correct me if I'm wrong but, when an objection is received, the joint session is suspended while each house meets and consider it separately.

If both houses do agree, the objection stands and the disputed votes are not counted.

If after the objections dealt with, no candidate has a majority (now 270) of electoral votes, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution requires that the House and Senate must choose the president and vice president under a procedure formally called a "Contingent Election."

In the Contingent Election, the House chooses the president while the Senate chooses the vice president.

In the House, votes for president are cast by state, with each state getting one vote. A simple majority -- 26 states -- wins.

In the Senate, the vote for vice president is taken member-by-member. A majority -- 51 Senators -- wins.

[rainy]

50. Why all the doubt when Conyers and many house reps are

willing to stand up, plus, there are law suits and much underground attention to this issue. The silence must be telling, too many people who know are not speaking and this should raise eyebrows. Michael Moore, who taped election day, and many others who know are keeping quiet. It seems so clear that something must happen. The machines will not survive another election and everyone who is in the know knows they have seen their last days. They are history. California already refused to use them, the rest of the states will follow suit as soon as this mess is cleaned up. The gig is up, it must be fixed.

[Der Blaue Engel]

53. Oh, Berni...

...don't be hopeful...cry and hide like all these nice helpful posters are urging you to do. But whatever you do, DO NOT try to fight for your democracy. It's all over. Fuhgettaboutit.

These responses just make me giggle.

:yourock:

[ConstitutionGuy]

54. No way

First all, on Jan 6 there will be only one Dem senator from Flordia - Graham is out and Martinez is in with the new Congress. And seems there is another post that Senator Nelson from Florida will not contest.

Point 2 - what's the "serious evidence" from Florida? The difference between Martinez (the republican senate winner) and Castro (the democratic loser) was only about 80,000, or about 1.1% of votes cast. Castor hasn't protested any improprieties. She didn't even request a recount.

Point 3 - So what? The Republican congress WILL NOT reject the electors from either state.

[shraby]

56. The "Senator Nelson is out" that was on a different

thread was bogus.

[greatscott15]

59. Too Bad

Doesnt look like anyone has the guts to stand up on THursday.

[nashville_brook]

61. conyers has been quite steadfast on this

which has made me believe his case is stronger than he has stated in public so far.

when he first started bringing this stuff up -- before the hearings -- he was pretty timid.

we're getting a lot of positive feedback tonite -- don't let the naysaying turkeys get you down.

[corbett]

63. It's Alphabetical So That Makes Sense

I live in Florida and can tell you that, because the First Brother is Gov, Florida will be more difficult to prove. It also will be more difficult because the fraudulent techniques varied from county to county to a greater extent than in Ohio. That said, I, like you, firmly believe that the evidence is just as compelling.

Since the challenge is alphabetical by state, your hypothesis makes perfect sense. Besides, the people who've been meeting with Representatives and Senators for the past two weeks have been referring as much to the Florida evidence as the Ohio.