BREAKING. WASHINGTON POST DECLARES KERRY WON!

[TruthIsAll]

WASHINGTON POST BREAKING: EXIT POLLS SHOW KERRY WON!

According to Mitofsky/Edison, the National Exit Pool poll:

Has a margin of Error less than 1%!
Is a randomly-selected sample of 13,047!
Results may change "slightly"!
Kerry wins all regions except the South!
New voters flock to Kerry!

Kerry won by 2-3% after adjusting for characteristic weights!

Kerry won the Independent vote: 52-44
Kerry won the Moderates: 57-42
Kerry won the Women vote: 54-45
Kerry won the New voters: 57-41
People said that Kerry cared more by: 76-22

They said Kerry was more likely than Bush to bring about needed change by (get this):

*************** 95-4 *******************

[Matariki]

1. is this online?

i just went to their site and couldn't find this. did they use the words "Kerry Won"?

did they show the overall total?

[nyy26wc]

8. Math gives us the overall total

Simple math says we can generate the overall total.

If Kerry received 47% of the vote of 46% of the population and
54% of the 54% of the population, that gives him an overall
total of 51%.

(.47 *.46) + (.54 * .54) = .5078

[Fortunato]

65. more specifically

Kerry - 50.78%
Bush - 48.22%

This is about a 2.5% difference.

If you take the national vote counts from November (I don't know the current "official" vote tally) of about 60 million for Bush and 56.5 million for Kerry (a difference of 3.5 million), however, you'll see the percentages flipped:

Bush - 51.5%
Kerry - 48.5%

Incredible, huh?

Examine what the votes WOULD have been, if the exit polls were dead on:

Kerry - 59,160,000 votes
Bush - 56,180,000 votes

Or, in other words, Kerry wins by almost 3 million.

Somehow, by random chance (*cough*), 3 million votes flip-flopped.

Even with a standard margin of error (closing the spread a bit), this is pretty insane. The sample of 13,000, taken both by phone and from pollsters at the physical sites, was far too large to introduce so much error.

[TruthIsAll]

75. Thank you. Another true analyst . No bull. Just cold facts. I love it.

Fortunato to have you around.

[newyawker99]

76. Hi nyy26wc!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[TruthIsAll]

30. ITS THE 12:23AM NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13047). THIS MIGHT INTEREST YOU.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x219264

[TruthIsAll]

68. Here's the LINK from Nov. 3. It's been removed. Why?

I got it by right-clicking on the chart and then clicking on Properties. I never accessed the site directly, only copied the image which someone had already downloaded.

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204

[eowyn_of_rohan]

2. Is this a different one than what you posted earlier?

We don't need such misleading subject lines right now, imo.

[politicasista]

3. I agree. We'd hope that this was true

but we need to be serious.

[Pithy Cherub]

4. You are beyond compare

and you are priceless! The numbers, always the numbers, they have to crossfoot...

[Corey_Baker08]

5. I Agree This Is Extemely Misleading

Maybe the WP exit Poll shows what most of us already know, Kerry reall did win, but until I see the words Kerry Won on the WP website, I am not interested really.

[Shalom]

50. Hey, It's Not "Extremely Misleading" - I Think the Stretch is OK...

[Peace Patriot]

6. Har, har! And happy new year to you, too! n/t

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Corey_Baker08]

11. Actually I Dont Think The Exit Polls Are wrong

I think the Exit Polls are not wrong. it would be very hard for Republicans to screw the exit polls up but it wouldnt be hard for them to hack the machine and screw the actual votes up. I believe the exit polls reflect the real winner of this election precisely, and it is John Kerry.

[Machiavelli05]

17. ok... you believe that

Im somewhat inclined too..
but this offeres no evidence of that. Nothing has.

I think its funny you think its so easy to covertly hack machines. Its not impossible to do it w/o getting caught, Im sure. However its not easy.

[BeFree]

26. Getting caught...

Well, if we can just get a judge somewhere to let us look at the code, they're dead. It wasn't that the machines were covertly hacked, the hack was OEM. And since the machines are some big, huge, secret, so secret the election officials can't even take a peek, we can sure as hell make a more than educated guess.

[Machiavelli05]

38. No actually..

since you CANT see all you can do is make a guess. There cant be an educated guess in the absence of fact.

[LittleClarkie]

21. They could, but didn't an experienced pollster say

he's never this far off.

If exit polls can be used in other countries to guard against fraud, why can't we use them here.

[Machiavelli05]

25. he's never been this far off in the past...

thats not proof. Thats saying he's obviously perfect b/c he has been in the past.

Honestly - while I was out on Nov 2nd I kept getting updated on the exit polling and I thought it was dangerous that the informatino was being proliferated in such a manner b/c it can serve to pacify the current front runner's support b/c they'll say "oh he's winnign we can stay home" and energize the runner up...
Thats what I think COULD have really happened.


As for other countries - if they want to almost incite a revolution based merely on exit polls thats fine. However, the fact that the opponnent was poisoned, and Ukranian officials confessed there was fraud, and the international observers said that it was suspicious DID contribute to this.

I, and most of the country, are not willing to start a revolution based on cirumstantial evidence and conjecture.

[LittleClarkie]

34. I'm not either

and neither was Kerry, I suspect.

If he had something airtight, I think he'd be out there.

As it is, I believe him when he says he wants election reform. Say what you want about the fraud, but we badly need to reform the system. I never want to see suppression like I did this year again.

[euler]

49. Because exit polls focused on fraud detection are...

...conducted using a different methodology than the one used in the US. This type of exit poll is used in Europe.

In the US, MSM pays for exit polls, and MSM is only interested in demographics, so they can say cool things like "45% of all married women in the southeast voted for Bush."

Two different poll methodologies. The European model is a true random sample of all voters. The US model is not a random sample, and doesn't need to be.


Look -----> http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_about_thos.html

[fasttense]

66. So the MSM pays millions of dollars for an inaccurate exit poll?

I find that hard to believe. Especially after the 2000 presidential election exit poll complaints made by the Repugs. Sorry don't buy what your link is saying. They may use different methodologies in other countries but the MSM is not going to invest in a piece of crap. They also want to say "------ will win by a __ margin". They don't want to be wrong and look like idiots to the Repugs again.

[spooked]

28. You don't need to edit the topic line. By possessing that exit poll data

the Washington Post has the evidence of Kerry's win.
I personally love the headline.

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[spooked]

41. EVIDENCE: "A thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment"

Looks like EVIDENCE to me.

By the way, the word English is always capitalized.

[Machiavelli05]

43. You didnt read too far did you?

1.) A thing or things helpful in forming a conclusion or judgment: The broken window was evidence that a burglary had taken place. Scientists weigh the evidence for and against a hypothesis.

2.) Something indicative; an outward sign: evidence of grief on a mourner's face.

3.) Law. The documentary or oral statements and the material objects admissible as testimony in a court of law.

2 & 3 are much more relavent to something that needs to stand up in court than 1.


As for "E"nglish, i did not reelize that perfect spelling and capitAlization was necessary on a massage bored. kNow I realeyez you will claim that b/c i was challenging your ability to under stand the EEEEnglish language, you challenged my writing ability - however, I was merely challenging your understanding as a rhetorical device b/c you obviously had no idea what i was talking about. I have full confidence that you can speak and read EEEnglish, maybe even another language or too.

However your grasp of what evidence will hold up in the court of public opinion and law is lacking.

[Wiley50]

9. I Love You, Truth! But this ain't April 1 n/t

[goclark]

10. I don't need a caption to tell me Kerry won

I knew Kerry won the day of the election.

So did most people, including GWB.

These numbers did not totally surprise me. I was surprised about Kerry's higher numbers with Asians and Hispanics. From what I was hearing,on the MSM/LOL, Kerry was "in trouble" with minorities.

I am African American and I said over and over that Kerry would get from 85 -90 % of the vote and we did it! Those were the folks who were allowed to vote, it probably ended up that 92 % of AA would have voted for Kerry.

Oh Rove's elves were very busy.

[BeFree]

12. The Post doesn't know it yet

But we do...

Kerry Won!

Ya just gotta love the headline, eh, goclark?
That headline of TIA's was a real attention grabber.
Might be something to consider in any print material we design.
Check yer PM.

[politicasista]

14. Unfortunately, the post isn't going public with it.

[BeFree]

19. Not public? It's on the web...

Like I said, they don't know it yet... but they will, and you will see it in a Post headline. Betcha.

[catnhatnh]

13. No educated person could read this poll...

...and come to ANY other conclusion!Simple math (like 3rd grade) says 47+54>52+45 and by 4 points without even considering the fact that women vote as a higher percentage than men...Kerry whipped 'em but GOOD!The headline Wapo failed to provide is their bone thrown to the regime.Don't blame TIA for stating the obvious....

[Walt Starr]

16. But this poll didn't count

The one at the actual election polls is the only poll that counts.

13,000 votes vs. 120,000,000.

I think the poll of 120,000,000 was a helluva lot more accurate, thankyouverymuch. Now the exit poll data would be more meaningful if some actual hard evidence of widespread fraud existed, but it doesn't. Ergo, I can safely dismiss the anomolies in the exit poll data.

[redacted]

18. Hey Walt, you a statistician?

[sepia_steel]

81. Walt never provides any real answers, just argument.

You would think it'd get boring for him by now. So does 1,000+ posts mean that someone isn't a newbie anymore? Cause I sure would like to call someone out... *sigh* if only.


:hi: Walt, I can't see you. Boy is it refreshing.

[BeFree]

22. You think?

Well, read about how the machines could be hacked from a cell phone. Read what computer experts have to say. Read about how votes were completely lost from DREs, and then read about the science behind exit polling, and recall the networks paid 10 million for the exit polls.

Then read some of TIA's proven analysis; Once you've done that, Walt, you won't have to think, you'll know: Kerry Won!

[euler]

51. Nothing...

...in your first paragraph points to fraud.

TIA is not an expert by his own admission. The actual experts disagree with TIA.

[davidgmills]

23. You need to read Freeman's article about the American myth

Of how accurate the actual vote counts are. He shatters this myth. He compares it to the census which is off by millions and whom the experts say would be much better if done statistically.

In fact, he believes that the the actual election results are probably even less accurate than the census becuase the goal is not accuracy but winning and the stakes are very high.

The goal in polling is accuracy or you are out of business.

Think of the difficulty in counting 120 million dollar bills and then trying to make sure half got to NY and half to LA and the problems with theft. Counting votes is even more difficult because the ballots are much harder to count that dollar bills and you have the incentive of election theft.

Don't believe that 120 million count. Give up this myth. I have unless I've got some exit polls to support the count.

[rdmccur]

46. I agree 100%

I think TIA (and I'm being frank) should require anyone who wishes to contest his posts on the exit poll analyses he does to read Freeman's paper as a prerequisite unless they show reasonable proof of
credentials. Just my take. But people will say what they will.

[fasttense]

67. And only in America are exit polls ignored.

[Walt Starr]

72. Exit Polls are only indicative of a greater problem

when other corrborative hard evidence is present as was the case in the Ukraine, but not in the United States.

[davidgmills]

77. There was no more corroborative evidence of fraud there than here

Just much more media attention. And the irony of that situation is that there was purported fraud in the exit polls as well.

[SicTransit]

78. Oh yes there was

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/20...

"They started to beat voters and election officials, trying to push through towards the ballot boxes," he told The Telegraph.

"People's faces were cut from blows to the head. There was blood all over."

...

Maya Syta, a journalist working at polling station 73 in a Kiev suburb, witnessed ballot papers destroyed with acid poured into a ballot box. "The officials were taking them out of the box and they couldn't understand why they were wet," she said.

"Then I saw they started to blacken and disintegrate as if they were burning. Two ballots were wrapped up into a tube with a yellow liquid inside. After a few moments they were completely eaten up."

...

The most common trick was "carousel" voting, in which busloads of Yanukovich supporters simply drove from one polling station to another casting multiple false absentee ballots.

In another brazen fraud recorded by observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, voters were given pens filled with ink that disappeared, leaving ballots unmarked and invalid.

=====================

When you can come up with something that happened in the United States that even approaches some of the above events, please tell us. Otherwise stop the propaganda about how Ukrainian elections were contested because of the exit polls there. The exit polls were a tiny corroborative corner of the mountain of hard proof of fraud - something that is completely lacking in the US.

[slackmaster]

15. Blast your hide, TIA

I was expecting something more like this:

[Not a Sheep]

20. AM I MISSING SOMETHING HERE? THE POST DECLARED KERRY WON? /eom

[SlowDownFast]

27. yeah, your missing something.....

the same thing i guess i'm missing too.

the same thing alot of us are missing about this (these) post(s)....

the straight facts without being misled by sensational subject titles.

not to mention duplicate postings of it.

this kind of shits gettin tiresome. Alot of good things happen in here, but you got to wade through a lot of horseshit to find it these days, it seems.

[Not a Sheep]

29. Yeah, I thought........

... this was "Breaking" news and the Post came out and said Kerry won. Then I just saw the picture from The Post with no details of them declaring Kerry won, etc. I thought maybe I was missing something.

So The Post didn't declare Kerry won? Ok, I guess I don't get misleading topic then.

[librechik]

39. cute name. do you follow Strauss by any chance? n/t

[SlowDownFast]

45. i know who strauss is.....

and just because i'm calling the sensationalized subject here an overdramatized attention-getter (ie: lie or at best half-truth) doesn't mean i'm a nazi (straussian), as you imply. I'm not questioning TIA's statistics, just his misleading subject heading.

sheesh.

[troubleinwinter]

40. Golly, tired so very soon? Try 'Hide Thread' or 'Ignore' or just

don't read it if you view it as "a lot of horseshit".

If you have read here at all (or more than a bit), you know that many people are interested in this information. It is completely uncalled for to come here and make rude comments. I avoid certain threads that I don't care for. I suggest you do the same.

[goclark]

42. Yea, like we wade through all the Lies in the MSM everyday

The difference is they are trying to cover up the truth and we are letting the TRUTH speak for us.

We are not trying to hide one little number.

[SlowDownFast]

44. well 2 lies don't make a right.......

ie:

bush won the election

+

Breaking! Washington Post Declares Kerry Won

still =

horseshit

[goclark]

61. We learned it from GWBCrooks

[davidgmills]

63. I'm sorry, but I didn't think it was misleading at all

I guess for those of us who have been following this thread for the last two weeks or so, we all know tht we have been searching for a smoking gun -- from CNN screen shots on election night, or anywhere else we can find it. Several have turned up within the last few days. I immediately presumed it was one more.

Bush won the mechanical and electronic tabulation. -- ACtual results

Kerry won the intent of the people. -- Exit Polls

[bitchkitty]

64. Did you notice which forum you were in?

And did you notice the abundance of other forums where election reform is not a topic?

[karlrschneider]

24. Uh, from whence cometh these data?

:eyes:

[TruthIsAll]

31. THE DATA COMETH FROM HERE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x219264

[karlrschneider]

36. Thanks....I backtracked through a lot of that...

it's like a maze that doesn't seem (to me) to lead anywhere. I'm sure you know I'm as convinced as anyone in the USA that there was massive fraud, but I just can't pin down anything that makes me think it would be a 'smoking gun' to a significant percentage of Americans which ISTM would be the bare minimum to even 'shift the debate', let alone prevent Chimp from running the show for 4 more years...

I need to re-read that thread...

[meatsack]

32. This is misleading

Your final 2 statements are misleading

"People said that Kerry cared more by: 76-22

They said Kerry was more likely than Bush to bring about needed change by (get this):

*************** 95-4 *******************"

For the first one, people were asked, what was the most important factor in deciding a president. 9% of people thought that the candidate caring about 'me' was the most important, in that 9% it was split 76-22. If you asked that question to the full 100% then I bet the ratio would be closer.

And of course people who think change is the most important factor for choosing a president are going to choose someone other than the incumbent. Hardly a news flash.

Yes the poll overall indicates that Kerry should have won. But your 'breakdowns' are showing us nothing new.

[TruthIsAll]

35. Ok, let's not quibble. You agree. The poll shows that Kerry won.

That's all that matters here.
Not a news flash? You would be surprised at how many are unaware.
To them, its a newsflash.

All should know before Jan. 6 that Kerry won.

[bleever]

33. Right there in black and white.

Pretty darn clear!

[berniew1]

47. Is there a URL or cite for this?

[berniew1]

48. Is there a URL or cite for this?

[seafan]

52. Link: right-click on the graphic and click on properties

Here is the text of the link, but remove the spaces after the http: so the link will be live.

http: //media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

[theboss]

53. Why did you change the numbers?

You said:

Kerry won the New voters: 57-41

The poll shows it 55-43

[TruthIsAll]

55. Hey boss, almost got me: See "Did Not Vote" 57-41.

Nice catch. Thought you got me?

Yes, First Time voter: 55-43

I read "Did Not Vote". My bad.

[theboss]

56. Oh, I see...but that's not first-time voters

That includes people who skipped 2000.

[TruthIsAll]

58. My bad. Look, it was a MISTAKE. A very minor one. Get Over It. n/t

.

[theboss]

59. I'm over it

I'm just trying to make sense of the numbers.

Was the male/female split really 54-46? In 2000, it was 52-48. Why the dramatic change?

[mahina]

54. Truth I love you.

This is going up all on telephone polls all over town.

[Name removed]

57. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[euler]

69. Why doesn't this show on the first page of the WP.

It's an exit poll. Not the actual election.

[seafan]

71. Hover your mouse over the graphic; an icon to enlarge it appears.

Click on this little square icon, and the graphic expands to sull size.



http: //media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

(remove the spaces after the http: to make the link active again.)

[Eric J in MN]

60. When was that printed? (nt)

nt

[davidgmills]

62. Day After the Election

Bottom of Article says exit polls were taken from people "yesterday."

[rodeodance]

79. ~yesterday--all my troubles seemed so far away~~~

[euler]

70. a randomly-selected sample of 13,047

no.

[k8conant]

73. No, what?

not randomly-selected?
not 13,047?

:kick:

[Name removed]

74. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hbouma]

80. Two poll results clearly show election results did not add up

Greetings,

Two things really show how the final result doesn't add up:

1) If you look at the income poll results, Kerry soundly beats Bush. The numbers in () are the actual % of total votes each candidate received in the entire population. You calculate them by multiplying the % of votes received by the candidate by the population distribution %. For example, for the $14,999 or less group, Kerry received 65% of the vote. Or 65% of 8% of the total vote is 5.2%.

8% for $14,999 or less 65% (5.2%) to 34% (2.72%)
15% for $15,000 to $29,999 60% (9.0%) to 38% (5.70%)
22% for $30,000 to $49,999 53% (11.66%) to 46% (10.12%)
23% for $50,000 to $74,999 46% (10.58%) to 53% (12.19%)
14% for $75,000 to $99,999 48% (6.72%) to 51% (7.14%)
18% for $100k or more 43% (7.74%) to 55% (9.9%)

Total: Kerry: 50.9% vs. Bush: 47.77%
This shows a > 3% margin of victory for Kerry. So the fact that he lost by 2% shows a swing of 5% which far exceeds any 1% or 3% margin of error.

One interesting side note is that the voting population breakdown is more represented by the higher income classes. However, we know that in reality the population is made up more of the lower income people.

2) This has been mentioned before but in this election millions of new voters who did not vote in the last election. However, these poll results show that of the 17% who did not vote in the prior election, 57% of them voted for Kerry and not Bush. Ergo, Kerry should have mopped the floor with Bush. So if all the new voters did not vote for Bush, where did all the Bush votes come from?

Hal