"Exit Poll Smoking Gun, Part II, Mitofsky Responds" by Slate's Mickey Kaus

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.slate.com/id/2111831/

Exit Poll Smoking Gun II
Mitofsky responds.
By Mickey Kaus
Updated Wednesday, Jan. 5, 2005, at 6:07 AM PT


Chief exit pollster Warren Mitofsky responds (via e-mail) to yesterday's "smoking gun" item:

The so-called smoking gun you wrote about was in the hands of every subscriber to our national election poll throughout election day. What took you and the others two months to locate it? At least a dozen news organizations have had this smoking gun since 11/2.

Second, the complex displays you ridicule, which were the source used by the leakers for the numbers that got posted by bloggers on election day, are not the tables you and others discovered. I stand by my original statement. Had you asked me I would have told you as much.

Third, if you doubt that we warned the NEP members on election day why don't you ask one of them? Or is ridicule with your eyes closed your preferred method of sounding smart?

And lastly, if my clients were as misinformed as you seem to think how come none of them announced an incorrect winner from the 120 races we covered that day? It seems that the only ones confused were the leakers and the bloggers. I guess I should include you in that list, but I'll bet you don't make mistakes. We have never claimed that all the exit polls were accurate.

Then again, neither is your reporting.
warren mitofsky

Kaus' response:

Boy, am I feeling less guilty that I didn't call Mitofsky before I posted that item (which was a bloggy thing to do, I admit). There doesn't seem to be any significant factual dispute at all. Mitofsky doesn't deny that his organization sent out erroneous data as late as 7:30 on election day showing Kerry winning nationally--indeed, he confirms it, saying it "was in the hands of every subscriber to our national election poll."

To the extent it's more than a macho taunt, Mitofsky's Paragraph #1 suggests the "smoking gun" couldn't have been all that important or else it would have leaked earlier. Not a powerful argument! The number of people clamoring for hot exit poll docs is pretty small, and Mitofsky's been barking loudly about "stolen" information. Maybe his loyal subscribers decided not to leak. And I'm not Bob Woodward. But Steve Coll of the Washington Post did complain about the bogus info in public.

more...

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Someone is whining like...

He done got his procreational nodule caught in his zipper.

The sad thing is that I cannot figure out if it is Mitofsky or Kaus. ;-)

Sounds like two broke-dick toys having a squabble.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Perhaps you should read Smoking Gun, part I

http://slate.msn.com/id/2111831/&#smoking

The smoking gun indicting the official Big Media Mitofsky/Lenski exit poll appears to have surfaced--in New Zealand! Mystery Pollster points the way to this file posted on the Scoop website. It is one of several that "appear to be actual internal Election Day reports generated by Edison/Mitofsky," according to MP. ... What it shows: As late as 7:33 P.M. on Election Day, Mitofsky and Lenski were apparently telling their clients (NBC, CBS, CNN, AP, etc.) that after "weighting" Kerry was beating Bush by 9 points among women and losing by only 4 among men. By 1:24 P.M. the next day (see this file) revised results revealed that, in fact, Kerry won women by only 3 points while Bush won men by 11 points. Whoops! ... It wasn't the dumb bloggers who didn't understand on Nov. 2 that they were being prematurely leaked "complex displays intended for trained statisticians," as Mitofsky would have it--or the dumb Kerry aides and dumb Bush aides who believed the same leaked numbers. It was that the weighted results Mitofsky's statisticians put out were full of it! ...

P.S.: The documents would also seem to contradict Mitofsky's argument that "we recognized the overstatement in the exit polls in mid-afternoon, and we told the members of NEP about the suspicions we had"--but mistakenly did not tell the mere "subscribers" like WaPo. If the errors were recognized in mid-afternoon, why was bogus 'weighted' data being compiled in neat official tables well into the evening?

P.P.S.: How much did Mitofsky's clients pay to be misinformed at 7:30 in the evening on Election Day? Are they happy about it?

[librechik]

3. yep, they're both pretty childish

but why all the coverup and defensive talk if nothing was wrong? Or, as Mitafsky claims, something WAS wrong--he is in a pickle for sure! The only way he can support Bush is by ruining his own reputation for accuracy! and yet he goes ahead and does it! what is going on with these people? It's totally irrational behavior.

[KoKo]

6. I'm not a "Kaus" fan but his Part I "Smoking Gun" is very interesting....

Even more interesting in that Mitofsky is the one that's been whining to anyone involved with trying to investigate the Election Poll Data that it's not up to "him" to release it ....it's his client's job to do that because they paid for it. In this case Kaus is doing a pretty good job of discussing the issue....

But your comment is :evilgrin: :D

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

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[musette_sf]

5. Unless it's anywhere else but the US.