Does anyone know the current margin of * over Kerry?

[LisaM]

I know it had shrunk from 3 million, though I still see that number being used. Does anyone know what it is now?

Also, does anyone else remember back in 2000 that there were reports that because of uncounted absentee ballots in California, etc. (that wouldn't have mattered to the outcome) that Al Gore's popular vote victory was actually close to two million than 500,000?

Thanks.

[bemis12]

1. I think it's still over 3 million

But well down from the approx 3.5 million reported election night, or the day after.

[SicTransit]

2. Last I saw it was somewhere around

2.97M

[m.standridge]

4. and if all the apparently fraudulent votes in key states

in the Electoral College were taken of:

120,000 in Ohio
381,000 in Florida
20,000 in Nevada
5,988 in New Mexico

plus some thousands in Colorado, North and South Carolina, Oklahoma and Wyoming, as well as some in California (states where things have been found suggesting excessive vote totals for Bush):

it would probably be somewhere between 760,000 and 1.9 million.

It's not impossible that Bush ended up having a Popular vote lead.
But, given all we've seen, it's unlikely he won in the Electoral College. Right now, in the short run, that's enough to be able to assert. The other, a Kerry Popular vote lead, might have to wait awhile to be as readily asserted.

[Peace Patriot]

7. Dr. Freeman calculates Kerry margin of 5.4 million

His calculation includes base support from 2000, redistribution of 3rd party vote (which declined by 2.8 million in '04, mostly in Kerry's favor), and new voters (new reg favored Kerry, 57% Dem to 41% Repub).

The expected totals would be:

K: 62,200,000
B: 56,800,000

The difference is 5,400,000 votes that, by these prediction criteria, should have been the Kerry margin of victory. (The discrepancy between K's expected total and '04 "official result" is 4,300,000.)

(Freeman has Bush margin in "official results" at 3.3 million.)

Freeman new draft paper at:
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

Freeman's first paper on the Exit Polls
http://www.truthout.org/unexplainedexitpoll.pdf

Baiman (U of Chic) on the exit polls
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/997

UC Berkeley (100,000 to 300,000 phantom votes for Bush in 3 big Dem FLA counties, based on other data than exit polls)
http://ucdata.berkeley.edu

I've read ALL the statistical reports of various kinds, and also some of the 57,000 complaints to Congress, as well as estimates of lost Kerry votes due to various kinds of pre- and election day vote suppression (--all hurting Dems), and machine malfunctions (such as touchscreens changing Kerry to Bush all day long); I think I've seen all of the available anomalous numbers from around the country (paper vs. electronic, top of the ticket vs. lower ticket, as well as Exit Polls)--with the numbers always favoring Bush and experts giving astronomical odds against this--and I have no doubt in my mind that Kerry won this election handily, and would have won it by a landslide except for ballots not counted or not cast (due to vote suppression).

The vote suppression in several states stole his landslide. Electronic fraud (more generally distributed around the country) stole his handy victory. That is my impression, and what I believe happened.

I cannot assert this with 100% certainty. No one can. And there is no "absolute proof," nor can there be. The election was extremely non-transparent and unfair. All I can say--for Bush supporters and those who are ever skeptical--is that the non-transparency and unfairness, combined with the evidence of a Kerry win, call out for a re-vote (which our system does not provide for).

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. 3,012,668 votes more for * / 2.4% for *

[m.standridge]

5. what I'd recalled was Gore had about a 250,000 Popular vote lead

at the time the Court "called" Florida. Then, over the next few weeks, thanks primarily to California, his lead grew to about 520,000. I don't recall anyone saying it grew more than that, but it might have. It might be they found some things after everything was certified.

[arnp2000]

6. still 3 1/2 million

[AndrewClarke]

8. It's 3,010,262 . . .

. . . according to the official totals on the Certificates of Ascertainment filed by the states.

Here are the official numbers:

George W. BUSH 62,026,315
John F. KERRY 59,016,053
Ralph NADER 461,219
Michael BADNARIK 396,893
Michael Anthony PEROUTKA 143,423
David COBB 119,868
Leonard PELTIER 27,607
Walter BROWN 10,832
James HARRIS 7,433
Roger CALERO 3,689
Thomas J. HARENS 2,387
Gene AMONDSEN 1,944
Bill VAN AUKEN 1,857
John T. PARKER 1,646
John Joseph KENNEDY 998
Charles JAY 946
Stanford E. (Andy) ANDRESS 804
Andrew J. FALK 219
Earl F. DODGE 140
Joe SCHRINER 124
Peter M. CAMEJO 115
Deborah Elaine ALLEN 92
Tom TANCREDO 26
Richard A. DUNCAN 16
James ALEXANDER-PACE 13
Martin WISHNATSKY 11
Lawson Mitchell BONE 10
Thomas F. ZYCH 10
David C. BYRNE 7
Michael HALPIN 4
Ernest VIRAG 4
David COOK 2
Theodis (Ted) BROWN, Sr. 2
Deborah Joyce RENDEROS 2
Lawrence Rey TOPHAM 2
Anthony JABIN 1
Joann BREIVOGEL 1
Robert M. CHRISTENSEN 1
Margaret TROWE 1
Joseph SPENCE 1
Robert Abraham BOYLE, II 1
Joy Elaina GRAHAM-PENDERGAST 1
Keith Russell JUDD 0
Nancy WARRICK 0
David Dale LARSON 0
Jackie HAYWARD 0
Robert Edward HAINES 0
Write-In 22,544
None of These Candidates 3,688

[AndrewClarke]

9. Now that Blackwell has amended Ohio's Certificate . . .

. . . the margin is 3,010,086.

[bemis12]

10. That made a hell of a dent :-)