Report: Swing voters don't matter

[sarahlee]

A National Annenberg Election survey (PDF) found that "just 16 percent of those who voted for George W. Bush said there was 'ever a time' when they thought they would vote for John Kerry. And 15 percent of Kerry voters said there was 'ever a time' when they thought they would vote for Bush."

"Put another way, 84 percent of Bush voters and 85 percent of Kerry voters said they never thought they would vote for the other candidate."

http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2004_03_mindset-bush-kerry-supporters_%2001-05_pr.pdf

Proves that if Kerry and the DNC HAD campaigned to the Democratic base, Kerry might have won. Because, had he campaigned hard on tried and true Democratic issues, fewer discgusted progressives would have stayed home or voted for Greens.

I know people who planned to vote for Kerry, but then wound up campaigning for and voting for Nader simply because they were so disgusted with the DNC efforts to keep Nader off of ballots. Some progressives and Greens did not vote at all - some were disgusted with the Cobb decision not to run in swing states.

I really believe this help prove what many of us have been saying over and over again - you have to have issues you really believe in and then you need to campaign hard on those issues without all of the manipulative thinking about whether it will appeal to a swing voter. Either you believe in something enough to fight for it or you don't, and then the voters who are hot on the issues have no reason to get excited and work for you.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. In such a divided electorate, we MUST go to our base.

We were not as prepared as the Rethugs were to GOTV! We need our base more than we need to pander to a small amount of the electorate!

[darkism]

2. No voters matter when the election is plagued by massive fraud [eom]

[sarahlee]

4. True, but . . .

The more votes you have in the first place, the more manipulation has to take place, and maybe, the harder it is to cover up.

Not sure about that because we don't yet have proof about all of the ways manipulation may or may not have occured.

Certainly, it would only make situations where enough voting machines were not supplied worse.

I still believe this is an important survey.

[Vinnie From Indy]

3. Especially if the vote is rigged! n/t

[stray cat]

5. What is the ratio of progressives versus conservatives in the US?

Who has the largest hard core base to mobilize? We had great voter turn out compared to past elections. How many progressives decided 4 more years of Bush was better than Kerry? Unlike 2000, I don't think the democrats lost any electoral votes because of the Nader voters.

Democrats looked pretty angry and motivated to me.

[sarahlee]

8. Well

I know that the women in my mom's bridge group in TX - who have always been Democrats, did not vote because they thought Kerry would win nationally and he did not impress or excite them with his message. That was five women in their 70s.

I know that Native American voters on the reservation where I live did not vote for Kerry or Daschle because they felt neglected and abused by both.

I know four of my progressive friends in Iowa, Illinois, California and Texas who said they did not vote at all because it was all more of the same manipulative BS with no attention to basic values.

If I know this many people there have to have been others across the country.

Yes, we had decent turnout because so many hated Bush. But we might have had much better turn out had we actually been working for good ol' tried and true Democratic values with a candidate who was not working so hard for that elusive middle ground.

[Kahuna]

6. Does the report break down how many Independents voted..

for Kerry and Bush. Because Independents ARE "swing voters." :eyes:

[stray cat]

7. True

I know many independents who voted democrat this year and campaigned hard for Kerry even though they never voted democrat in their life and would never consider themselves democrats and certainly not green party.

I am an independent who voted for independent candidates in the past. This election was to important to me to throw my vote away as a protest to the system. The republican mobilization of their base was so ugly, I kept sending more and more money to Kerry and other democrats.

[formernaderite]

9. You're right the worst tactic the democrats used was villifying Nader...

"I know people who planned to vote for Kerry, but then wound up campaigning for and voting for Nader simply because they were so disgusted with the DNC efforts to keep Nader off of ballots".

But believe me there was no way to convince them not to do it. Of course I would point out, that half the country still doesn't vote and that if they simply reached out to those people Nader could get 10% of the vote and it wouldn't matter. Ah, well spilled soy milk.