''The early exit models(polls) undercounted Republicans''-Bush camp 11/2

[kuozzman]

That's the argument the Chimp camp was making to news networks late 11/2, early 11/3. You may have seen this article, I hadn't and was surprised to see that quote, along with others from news network execs, etc. I posted the whole article($$$).

The New York Times
November 3, 2004 Wednesday
HEADLINE: Early Night for Viewers Becomes a Cliffhanger

As of midafternoon, the likely outcome yesterday appeared clear.

Polling data streaming into the broadcast and cable news networks indicated that nearly every state that had been in contention after eight months of hard campaigning was breaking for Senator John Kerry. President Bush, it seemed, would likely be a one-term president, just like his father.

But shortly before the evening newscasts President Bush's campaign aides had words of warning for reporters and producers: Don't believe everything you see.

What about the old saying, "I've got to see it to believe it".

And so began a battle of wills in which the president's advisers worked furiously behind the scenes, and sometimes on the air, to keep the networks from acting on the information from surveys of voters leaving the polls. Mr. Kerry's aides worked to bolster those numbers. And the networks strived to call the race as quickly as possible without making any mistakes.

EDITED BY ADMIN: COPYRIGHT

[kuozzman]

1. Can I have at least 1 reply?.......Please??

[sportndandy]

2. Great summation. Kick

[1democracy]

3. Exit polls and politics

I am surprised that the political parties have so much influence on the media in calling the election. The polls should be the polls, without input from the Kerry or Bush camp. It seems incompatible with unbiased news ( in the old- school sense).
I would like to know what kind of exit polls are used in other countries that count on them to predict the elections. How do they differ from what we have in the US?

[electropop]

8. The exit polls in other countries DO NOT DIFFER from US polls

because the US Government hires and puts complete faith in the SAME polling organization that does the US TV network polls: Mitovsky! Powell and other admin officials heaped huge praise on Mitovsky for accurately calling the Ukraine election, and 100% of US elections for about 30 years, up until 2000.

Then by some wierd coincidence, suddenly the 100% accurate (within a fraction of a %) exit polls went haywire: the vote totals didn't match the polls. Did Mitovsky suddenly forget how to take a poll? Seems unlikely.

[euler]

9. Wrong. They often differ.

Exit polls can do many different things, depending on how they are designed. For example, US exit polls often bear little resemblance to German exit polls. Mitosfsky designs polls in the US and other countries, but that doesn't mean he designs them the same way. His designs are driven by the needs of his customers.

Here is one of many documents on the web that could be found quickly by anyone wishing to make coherent remarks about this topic.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_about_thos.html

[euler]

11. Exit polls designed to verify the vote count...

...must consist of a random sample of respondents. Such exit polls are much more expensive than the type exit poll conducted in the US this year.

German exit polls are frequently designed to verify elections. Here is a link explaining how their exit polls differs from ours.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_about_thos.html

[kuozzman]

4. KICK

[helderheid]

5. thank you for this!

[GOPBasher]

6. Grrrrrrr.. this makes me so mad.

The exit polls were CORRECT! They are always very accurate. Kerry may have won Florida and probably won Ohio.

[euler]

10. They are NOT always accurate.

This is easy to verify. I don't know why it's still considered conventional wisdom here in the forum. Well, maybe I do know why.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/have_the_exit_p.html

[GOPBasher]

12. Look at those closely.

Almost all the time, it's the Democrats who are "overstated." That makes me think.

[euler]

13. Good.

[GOPBasher]

14. What do you mean "good"?

In almost every case, it's the Democrat who "seemed" to be getting more of the vote, but the results came back different.

[newscott]

7. Here's my reply.

These guys are amazing.

Stalin would be proud.

[Moderator]

15. kuozzman

Per DU copyright rules
please post only four
paragraphs from the
copyrighted new source.


Thank you.


DU Moderator

[anaxarchos]

16. The real question is by how much...

It's not easy to make exit polls "add-up". It's like punching a water balloon. You push in here, it sticks out there. By itself, this is just spin - yet another assertion. Let the "White House" or the NYT plug in the numbers... by how much and where were Republicans underpolled? Then it is easy to crunch it.

Most of the assertions explaining how "Bush won" haven't had a half life of 24 hours.

[ClintCooper2003]

17. The telling thing about this is that Matthew Dowd's comments are...

internally inconsistent. At first, he says Kerry was "nipping at his heels" in SC. Then he says Kerry was ahead by 6.

Of course, there are NO exit polls that ever showed Kerry ahead by 6 in South Caroline. That is absolutely absurd.

And once again, everyone involved seems to be bagging on the "early" exit polls. Once again, it's total bullshit. The LATE exit polls had Kerry winning Ohio and tied in Florida. The LATE exit polls had Kerry winning Nevada and New Mexico and Iowa. The LATE exit polls had Kerry's margin of victory actually INCREASING in the Northeast and West coast.