"The 2004 WCVI National Latino Election Day Exit Poll”

[Carolab]

There has been disagreement as to the levels of national Latino support enjoyed by both President Bush and Senator Kerry in the 2004 Presidential elections. The National Election Poll (NEP) and Los Angles Times exit polls indicated that 44% and 45% of the Latino electorate respectively voted for President Bush on election-day. However, sample design flaws have called those findings into question.

The William C. Velásquez Institute (WCVI), the non-profit, non-partisan sister organization of the Southwest Voter Registration and Educational Project (SVREP), founded by Willie Velasquez in 1985 conducted the first national exit poll of Latinos on November 2, 2004. Never before in the history of presidential exit polls had an organization conducted a poll exclusively of Latino voters. The findings of this historical poll contradicted those of the NEP and Los Angles Times. The WCVI poll found that only 33.0% of Latinos queried on election-day voted for President Bush while 65.4% supported Senator Kerry. Another 1.4% of Latinos polled indicated that they had cast their votes for Ralph Nader and his vice-presidential running mate.

What was most important about the WCVI findings was not that they differed greatly from those of the NEP and LA Times polls, but that they only varied slightly from five other pre-election polls. Additionally, these findings indicate that Latinos had changed their voting patterns little since the 2000 general election. In 2000 both the WCVI and an independent research source found that President Bush had received only 35% of the Latino national vote. When factoring in the margin of error for both polls the 2004 findings of 33.0% support for President Bush indicate that Latinos had continued to vote in the same manner as they had historically.

The most important question underlying the disagreement between the findings of the NEP, Los Angeles Times and WCVI polls is why the findings of Latino support for the presidential candidates differed so markedly? The twelve to thirteen point variance goes well beyond any possible margin of error. The answer may be found in the methodologies utilized in designing the sampling frame. In other words, if one compares the samples of all three polls one will find why a difference exists between the polls’ respective outcomes.

(more http://www.wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/polls/national/2004/flores.html#_ftnref1

[RaulVB]

1. And as you know...

This institute MADE NBC CHANGE THEIR NUMBERS FOR LATINO VOTERS FOR "*"

The institute was right, NBC REPORTED "TOTALS" were wrong.

UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE

That has huge and, of course, DOWNPLAYED by the corporate media.

[EFerrari]

2. WCVI is right, the NEP and LAT are wrong. Not rocket science.

The polls differed "so markedly" because the B* machine wanted to spin their theft. Bush won because of "moral values" voters (debunked) and because Latinos increased their support for him (also debunked).

Man, they better find some space aliens really soon to account for all those fake votes that he didn't get!

[Land Shark]

3. Kick!

[EFerrari]

8. Nonscientific feedback. I AM in the Latino community.

I don't know who the Mafia was trying to Bush* but there's no way Latinos went more for Bush than they did in 2000. My immediate circle is as lefty as I am. But in my family circle and that different network, there are a ton of centrists who regard Bush with something like horror.

We've had four YEARS of this racist creep. And we remember his daddy. And we remember when Reagan was exporting hit squads all over Central and South America.

From my reading, the exception maybe in the older Cuban expat community in FL. Those folks have a lot invested in ousting Castro (yeah, right) and in recouping what they lost.

But their KIDS are not buying in. Their kids broke for Kerry (and sorry, I'd have to dig for the article/link).

[EFerrari]

4. This may be a little OT but do you remember the mythos of 11/3?

Moral values voters, Latino voters, a great Repug turnout? Oh, and a new assault on Falluja, just in case you needed distraction. Plus, Bush was going to make a constitutional admendment against gay marriage a priority.

They had it very carefully scripted and in place. Please.

[Carolab]

5. I KNEW that Los Angeles Times poll was full of it. n/t

[NationalEnquirer]

6. What about the black vote?

I heard that some pre-election polls estimated up to 18% support from Blacks!
No Way!
I am not sure the final result, it was more than in 2000 but much less than 18%.

[RaulVB]

7. 11-12% at the most. Not complete because the data is flawed

It could be even less than that.

Al the numbers are fundamentally flawed.

[TruthIsAll]

9. Kerry got over 90% of the black vote. Gore got 92%.

That 82% pre-election poll number was BS.

This is further evidence that Kerry won.