GRAPH: Kerry State Exit Poll Deviations vs. Margin of Error

[TruthIsAll]

Look at FL, PA, OH.
EACH OF THESE STATES DEVIATED TO BUSH BY 3.4%.
ALL DEVIATIONS WERE BEYOND THE MOE.

FORTY-THREE (43) STATES DEVIATED TO BUSH.
TWENTY-ONE (21) EXCEEDED OR EQUALED THE MOE.
THIRTY (30) EXCEEDED THE EXIT POLL BY 2.0%

SEVEN (7) STATES DEVIATED TO KERRY.
THE MAXIMUM DEVIATION WAS 1.6%

[BlueEyedSon]

1. Love your stuff, but can you give a little narrative on this one? nt

[TruthIsAll]

2. It's pretty self-explanatory, but here goes.

It's a comparison of the deviations in Kerry's exit poll numbers to the calculated margin of error in each state (based on poll sample-size).

If Kerry dropped 3.4% from the exit poll to the vote, Bush went up by the same amount. Poll and reported vote percentages are two-party based (the sum is equal to 100%).

Kerry's vote percentage declined (and Bush's increased) in 43 states.
Twenty-one were OUTSIDE or exactly at the MOE (see NM).

Kerry's votes increased in 7 states, all of them well within the MOE.

[Goldeneye]

6. I count 8 states deviating to Kerry.

[TruthIsAll]

8. You are right. Its eight. n/t

tia

[Al-CIAda]

3. Nice work TIA. Thank you.

:mad: :thumbsup:

[bleever]

4. Kick.

[Bill Bored]

5. Hey, what happened to the EV weightings?

I see you've dropped them from this graph. I had them all plotted out against the party affiliations of the governors and now I have to swap them around! You're making too much work for me, TIA!

[TruthIsAll]

7. Tha's another graph, based on earlier voting. I have not updated it.

I'll let you do it, Bill.