Question about California - exit polls / popular vote...??

[garybeck]

There's been a lot of talk about trimming off Kerry votes in some states to pad the national popular vote. It's been suggested here that CA was one of those states.

But looking at TIA's latest chart:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=286098&mesg_id=286098

it appears that CA was one of the few states that the exit polls were off in Kerry's favor by a little.

I don't see how we can think that CA votes were trimmed to pad the national popular vote if the exit poll was so close to the actual vote and it was off in the wrong direction.

Any thoughts?

[libertypirate]

1. If you can make arguments that support cheating on both sides

what happens?

No one can make their point

[garybeck]

2. I'm not saying both sides cheated...

the exit polls were within the margin of error for CA. that's my point. there is no evidence of funny business in CA.

that's why I'm saying,,, unless I'm missing something we should stop saying that CA had irregularities.

[libertypirate]

4. Let me ask you this....

for what purpose do you modify the results of a random survey?

The essence of my question is when you modify the results of a random survey to verify the results of a non-random survey what you end up with is really just two different non-random surveys that inevitably only act to support each other.

Why in democracy do you need to two different non-random surveys to measure voter intent? The only thing they convince "the people" of is voter intent.

[garybeck]

5. these exit polls were not modified

I don't follow your point. the exit poll data in TIA's post is before they were changed.

[libertypirate]

7. Which number is wrong pole, vote or both?

Do you realize how big the state of California is? If you wanted results of a poll in the state to match you just have to pick the right places to poll it's easier than fixing the poll numbers.

This is where I think the crime would become apparent for most people, the polling place choices could simply have leaned Bush. Just like all the glitches, on Nov 2. it's eveything leans Bush day.

[garybeck]

9. I don't think you're looking at the exit poll data

the exit polls for each state have a margin of error. The argument that election fraud advocates are making is that the exit polls are extremely reliable and they have been ever since they've been in use. The exit polls are right on for CA.

We can't have it both ways. If we're going to say that OH, FL, and the other 18 states that are outside the margin of error, are a smoking gun that the election was stolen, we can't turn around and say the exit polls were wrong in CA.

[libertypirate]

13. Do you think reps and some dems are protecting this election

or the system by which elects them unfairly into office.

All these glitches are unconnected except they all benifit *. How hard is it to pre-fix the exit pols by just selecting the ones that recently voted for *? Would this be just another glitch?

I know what your saying but I think part of the problem is the reps want Americans to believe they have more support then they actually do, and they will do anything to make this belief a reality.

[glitch]

3. It's possible for both the exit polls and the vote count to be wrong

As the pollsters have over-emphasized, they got it wrong. But how wrong? Wrong towards Kerry or wrong towards Bush? We don't know without a look at the source data.
Right now nothing is verified, or even verifiable in some cases.

[garybeck]

6. huh?

we're using the "scoop" exit poll data to argue that several states have very high diversion from exit polls, way outside the margin of error.

the same exit polls show basically no problem in CA.

I don't know where the evidence is that there were problems in CA.

[Wilms]

8. I've argued, generally, that "Popular Padding" was part of the deal.

I think I saw a complaint on a thread about CA, but if CA and a few other states didn't get involved in padding there are plenty of other states.

I also wondered about races OTHER THAN Pres., as targets.

[garybeck]

10. i agree... there was padding, but I don't see it in CA nt

[Wilms]

11. Have you seen states where there may have been padding AND

a tight race other than Pres.?

[garybeck]

12. I'm only looking at the pres race...nt