State Exit Poll/Vote Statistical Update

[TruthIsAll]

 
This is an update/correction of the 2-party exit poll/vote
analysis.

Note the correction:
Fifteen (15) states deviated to Bush beyond the MOE.
I originally calculated 16 (using Nov. 3 data), then using
current vote data, I calculated it incorrectly last week as
20. 

Total	2-party votes: 121,056
(in thousands of votes)

42 of 50 states deviated to Bush
The probability is 0.0000005818
The odds are 1 in 1.719 million

15 states deviated beyond the MOE to Bush
The probability is 0.0000000000009166
The odds are 1 in 1.091 trillion

4 States flipped from Kerry to Bush (FL, OH, IA, NM)	

Kerry (2-party): 
Actual Vote: 59,085 (48.81%) 
Exit Poll:   60,997 (50.39%)	
Deviation:  1.912 million votes


Bush (2-party): 
Actual Vote: 61,971 (51.19%) 
Exit Poll: 60,059 (49.61%) 

Average MOE: 2.85%	
Average Net Deviation from Kerry to Bush: 1.73%
				
……	Votes	Poll	Poll	Poll	Vote	Vote	Poll	Dev.	Dev.	Dev	>2.0%Flip	Dev.	Vote	Poll	Vote	Poll
……	(000)	Size	MOE	Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Dev.	/MOE	>MOE	Bush	Bush	Bush	(000)	Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Bush
AK	302	910	3.31%	40.50%	36.77%	63.23%	-3.73%	112%	YES	YES	YES		-11	111	122	191	180
AL	1,870	730	3.70%	41.00%	37.10%	62.90%	-3.90%	105%	YES	YES	YES		-73	694	767	1,176	1,103
AR	1,998	1402	2.67%	46.60%	45.07%	54.93%	-1.53%	57%		YES			-31	900	931	1,097	1,067
AZ	1,043	1859	2.32%	47.00%	44.72%	55.28%	-2.28%	98%		YES	YES		-24	467	490	577	553
CA	12,255	1919	2.28%	54.00%	55.04%	44.96%	1.04%	46%					128	6,745	6,618	5,510	5,637

CO	2,103	2515	1.99%	49.10%	47.63%	52.37%	-1.47%	74%		YES			-31	1,002	1,033	1,101	1,070
CT	1,551	872	3.39%	58.50%	55.27%	44.73%	-3.23%	95%		YES	YES		-50	857	908	694	644
DC	372	795	3.55%	91.00%	90.52%	9.48%	-0.48%	14%		YES			-2	337	338	35	33
DE	224	770	3.60%	58.50%	53.83%	46.17%	-4.67%	130%	YES	YES	YES		-10	121	131	104	93
FL	7,548	2846	1.87%	50.50%	47.48%	52.52%	-3.02%	161%	YES	YES	YES	YES	-228	3,584	3,812	3,965	3,736

GA	3,280	1536	2.55%	43.00%	41.65%	58.35%	-1.35%	53%		YES			-44	1,366	1,411	1,914	1,870
HI	426	499	4.48%	53.30%	54.40%	45.60%	1.10%	25%					5	232	227	194	199
IA	1,494	2502	2.00%	50.60%	49.66%	50.34%	-0.94%	47%		YES		YES	-14	742	756	752	738
ID	590	559	4.23%	33.50%	30.68%	69.32%	-2.82%	67%		YES	YES		-17	181	198	409	393
IL	5,239	1392	2.68%	57.00%	55.21%	44.79%	-1.79%	67%		YES			-94	2,892	2,986	2,347	2,253

IN	2,448	926	3.29%	41.00%	39.58%	60.42%	-1.42%	43%		YES			-35	969	1,004	1,479	1,445
KS	1,171	654	3.91%	35.00%	37.13%	62.87%	2.13%	55%					25	435	410	736	761
KY	1,782	1034	3.11%	41.00%	39.99%	60.01%	-1.01%	32%		YES			-18	713	731	1,069	1,051
LA	1,922	1669	2.45%	44.50%	42.67%	57.33%	-1.83%	75%		YES			-35	820	855	1,102	1,067
MA	2,875	889	3.35%	66.00%	62.74%	37.26%	-3.26%	97%		YES	YES		-94	1,804	1,897	1,071	977

MD	2,359	1000	3.16%	57.00%	56.57%	43.43%	-0.43%	14%		YES			-10	1,334	1,345	1,025	1,014
ME	727	1968	2.25%	54.70%	54.58%	45.42%	-0.12%	5%		YES			-1	397	398	330	329
MI	4,793	2452	2.02%	52.50%	51.73%	48.27%	-0.77%	38%		YES			-37	2,479	2,516	2,314	2,277
MN	2,792	2178	2.14%	54.50%	51.76%	48.24%	-2.74%	128%	YES	YES	YES		-76	1,445	1,521	1,347	1,270
MO	2,715	2158	2.15%	47.50%	46.38%	53.62%	-1.12%	52%		YES			-30	1,259	1,290	1,456	1,425

MS	1,130	798	3.54%	43.30%	40.49%	59.51%	-2.81%	79%		YES	YES		-32	458	489	673	641
MT	440	640	3.95%	39.80%	39.50%	60.50%	-0.30%	8%		YES			-1	174	175	266	265
NC	3,487	2167	2.15%	48.00%	43.76%	56.24%	-4.24%	197%	YES	YES	YES		-148	1,526	1,674	1,961	1,813
ND	308	649	3.93%	34.00%	36.09%	63.91%	2.09%	53%					6	111	105	197	203
NE	767	785	3.57%	36.80%	33.15%	66.85%	-3.65%	102%	YES	YES	YES		-28	254	282	513	485

NH	672	1849	2.33%	55.40%	50.69%	49.31%	-4.71%	203%	YES	YES	YES		-32	341	372	331	300
NJ	3,581	1520	2.56%	55.00%	53.37%	46.63%	-1.63%	64%		YES			-58	1,911	1,970	1,670	1,612
NM	748	1951	2.26%	51.30%	49.60%	50.40%	-1.70%	75%		YES		YES	-13	371	384	377	364
NV	816	2116	2.17%	49.40%	48.68%	51.32%	-0.72%	33%		YES			-6	397	403	419	413
NY	7,277	1452	2.62%	63.00%	59.29%	40.71%	-3.71%	141%	YES	YES	YES		-270	4,314	4,584	2,963	2,692

OH	5,599	1963	2.26%	52.10%	48.94%	51.06%	-3.16%	140%	YES	YES	YES	YES	-177	2,740	2,917	2,859	2,682
OK	1,464	1539	2.55%	35.00%	34.43%	65.57%	-0.57%	22%		YES			-8	504	512	960	951
OR	1,810	1064	3.07%	51.20%	52.11%	47.89%	0.91%	30%					16	943	927	867	883
PA	5,732	1930	2.28%	54.30%	51.26%	48.74%	-3.04%	134%	YES	YES	YES		-174	2,938	3,112	2,794	2,619
RI	429	809	3.52%	64.00%	60.58%	39.42%	-3.42%	97%		YES	YES		-15	260	274	169	154

SC	1,600	1735	2.40%	46.00%	41.36%	58.64%	-4.64%	193%	YES	YES	YES		-74	662	736	938	864
SD	382	1495	2.59%	37.80%	39.09%	60.91%	1.29%	50%					5	149	144	233	237
TN	2,421	1774	2.37%	41.50%	42.81%	57.19%	1.31%	55%					32	1,036	1,005	1,384	1,416
TX	7,360	1671	2.45%	37.00%	38.49%	61.51%	1.49%	61%					110	2,833	2,723	4,527	4,637
UT	905	798	3.54%	30.50%	26.65%	73.35%	-3.85%	109%	YES	YES	YES		-35	241	276	664	629

VA	3,172	1431	2.64%	48.00%	45.87%	54.13%	-2.13%	81%		YES	YES		-68	1,455	1,522	1,717	1,649
VT	305	685	3.82%	65.00%	60.30%	39.70%	-4.70%	123%	YES	YES	YES		-14	184	198	121	107
WA	2,815	2123	2.17%	54.90%	53.65%	46.35%	-1.25%	58%		YES			-35	1,510	1,545	1,305	1,270
WI	2,968	2223	2.12%	52.50%	50.19%	49.81%	-2.31%	109%	YES	YES	YES		-68	1,490	1,558	1,478	1,410
WV	750	1722	2.41%	45.30%	43.52%	56.48%	-1.78%	74%		YES			-13	327	340	424	410
WY	238	684	3.82%	30.90%	29.69%	70.31%	-1.21%	32%		YES			-3	71	74	168	165
																	
Avg	2,374	1443	2.85%	48.81%	50.39%	51.19%	-1.73%	79%									
Med	1,782	1495	2.59%	49.10%	47.48%	52.52%	-1.70%	67%									
Total	121,056	73,607							15	43	22	4	-1,912	59,085	60,997	61,971	60,059
Diff													-1.58%	48.81%	50.39%	51.19%	49.61%

 
 

[Wilms]

1. Do you have the vote deviation for Bush?

Kerry (2-party):
Actual Vote: 59,085 (48.81%)
Exit Poll: 60,997 (50.39%)
Deviation: 1.912 million votes


Bush (2-party):
Actual Vote: 61,971 (51.19%)
Exit Poll: 60,059 (49.61%0

Deviation: ??

[TruthIsAll]

3. Its the same as Kerry's, but in the other direction. Just subtract.

Remember, it's a 2-party analysis.

Kerry lost 1.912 million to Bush.

[Wilms]

4. So Exit Poll wise, Kerry won the popular vote by 3.824 million? n/t

[TruthIsAll]

5. You are reading the numbers wrong.

Take 1.912 from the Bush vote and give it to Kerry. That's a net switch of 3.824, but Kerry has less than a 1 million vote lead.

Keery:60,997
Bush: 60,059


What is key are the 4 states that flipped to Bush.

There were many thousands of voters who did not get to vote, whether it was due to just giving up on the long lines, or registration fraud so they never qualified to vote...and various other dirty tricks.

So Kerry probably won by at least 3-4 million votes.

[Wilms]

6. Thank You, TIA.

I got that now.

And 2-3 million via dirty tricks (I feel more, but...) in a lot of places.

It does underscore how many "little cuts" were sustained.

[nodictators]

18. Mitofsky's NEP report says red-shift due to Democratic Overstatement

The "overstatement" claim has to be debunked and refuted. Otherwise, all of these numbers mean nothing.

Personally, I don't buy the overstatement claims. In analysis, the analyst, Mitofsky, should show that his methodology works. His vote analysis worked resonably well, excepting states such as OH and FL. His overstatement analysis is highly questionable in my view.

However, the TV "news" media reports what suits them, and others have to prove the methodology wrong. Even when someone does that, they still will ignore it and brand the outsider a "conspiracy theorist."

Worse yet, NBC has called for a "Democratic Overstatement" reduction to be applied in future exit polls.

Disproving the overstatement crap is Job 1!

[rzemanfl]

7. TIA, your work is appreciated and impressive, but frankly, all the

numbers make my head hurt and my eyes glaze over. I have this idea that I am trying to get some attention for. Instead of trying to push verified voting through Repug dominated bodies, my idea is to have communities all over the country adopt ordinances that require paper back up ballots and allow them to be used in lieu of voting on whatever system is in place if lines are over 20 minutes long or if any machine malfunctions, (e.g., calibration problems) have been reported. Printing costs would be funded by donations, preferably already pledged when the ordinance is presented, and if a count of the paper ballots is needed, it would be done by volunteers, in the presence of election & party officials as witnesses. There should be a list presented of people who agree to do the hand counts free of charge if needed, and, adopting a Repug tactic, it should be named after some local local or national figure and contain some flowery language. The idea just popped into my head that naming the ordinance after a local person killed in one of Bush's wars would be a great idea.

There are some legal issues with this plan that need to be addressed by folks with election law backgrounds. The goal would be to make "A Verified Voting Community" like "An Equal Opportunity Employer"-everyplace is, nowhere isn't.

What do you think of this idea? I know everyone at DU pays attention to what you say and if you were to post this suggestion it might get some attention. I have a tendency to fall in love with my own ideas, but the more I think about this one, the more I like it. I feel the biggest risk it faces is legal challenges from the Repugs, but those would, I think, be a tremendous political risk to them.

[Stevepol]

8. I don't think there's any question but what the DREs are rigged.

Your idea would be good if we didn't have computer central tabulators tabulating the final vote and local computers that can be hacked and mis-programmed. The paper votes would be fine probably but the final tabulations would set it all at naught by rigging the whole election ex post facto. The computer problem has to be fixed.

DEMAND A VOTER-VERIFIED PAPER BALLOT AND FAIR AUDITS FOR ALL ELECTIONS.

[TruthIsAll]

13. MORE STATS: 7 states accounted for 53% of the Red Shift to Bush

To Bush
............	Vote	Dev	CumDev	Pct	CumPct

1	NY	672	-270	-270	12.1%	12%
2	FL	224	-228	-498	10.2%	22%
3	OH	3,581	-177	-675	7.9%	30%
4	PA	816	-174	-850	7.8%	38%
5	NC	2,715	-148	-998	6.6%	45%

6	IL	1,494	-94	-1,092	4.2%	49%
7	MA	1,171	-94	-1,185	4.2%	53%
8	MN	2,359	-76	-1,262	3.4%	56%
9	SC	5,599	-74	-1,336	3.3%	60%
10	AL	1,870	-73	-1,409	3.3%	63%

11	WI	1,600	-68	-1,477	3.1%	66%
12	VA	1,810	-68	-1,545	3.0%	69%
13	NJ	3,487	-58	-1,603	2.6%	72%
14	CT	2,103	-50	-1,653	2.2%	74%
15	GA	7,548	-44	-1,698	2.0%	76%

16	MI	2,875	-37	-1,735	1.7%	77%
17	WA	429	-35	-1,770	1.6%	79%
18	LA	2,448	-35	-1,805	1.6%	81%
19	IN	590	-35	-1,840	1.6%	82%
20	UT	1,464	-35	-1,875	1.6%	84%

21	MS	4,793	-32	-1,907	1.4%	85%
22	NH	440	-32	-1,938	1.4%	87%
23	CO	12,255	-31	-1,969	1.4%	88%
24	AR	1,998	-31	-2,000	1.4%	89%
25	MO	727	-30	-2,030	1.4%	91%

26	NE	1,130	-28	-2,058	1.2%	92%
27	AZ	1,043	-24	-2,082	1.1%	93%
28	KY	5,239	-18	-2,100	0.8%	94%
29	ID	426	-17	-2,117	0.7%	95%
30	RI	7,277	-15	-2,131	0.7%	95%

31	VT	5,732	-14	-2,146	0.6%	96%
32	IA	3,280	-14	-2,160	0.6%	96%
33	WV	382	-13	-2,173	0.6%	97%
34	NM	308	-13	-2,186	0.6%	98%
35	AK	312	-11	-2,197	0.5%	98%

36	DE	372	-10	-2,207	0.5%	99%
37	MD	1,782	-10	-2,218	0.5%	99%
38	OK	748	-8	-2,226	0.4%	99%
39	NV	767	-6	-2,232	0.3%	100%
40	WY	2,421	-3	-2,235	0.1%	100%

41	DC	1,551	-2	-2,236	0.1%	100%
42	MT	2,792	-1	-2,238	0.1%	100%
43	ME	1,922	-1	-2,239	0.0%	100%
						
To Kerry
............	Vote	Dev	CumDev	Pct	CumPct
1	CA	238	128	128	39%	39%
2	TX	750	110	237	34%	73%
3	TN	2,968	32	269	10%	82%
4	KS	2,815	25	294	8%	90%
5	OR	305	16	311	5%	95%
6	ND	3,172	6	317	2%	97%
7	SD	905	5	322	2%	99%
8	HI	7,360	5	327	1%	100%

[TruthIsAll]

14. MORE STATS: Deviation as % of MOE

.........Dev% Votes
.........MOE (000)
NH	203%	672
NC	197%	3,487
SC	193%	1,600
FL	161%	7,548
NY	141%	7,277
OH	140%	5,599
PA	134%	5,732
DE	130%	224
MN	128%	2,792
VT	123%	305
AK	112%	312
WI	109%	2,968
UT	109%	905
AL	105%	1,870
NE	102%	767
AZ	98%	1,043
RI	97%	429
MA	97%	2,875
CT	95%	1,551
VA	81%	3,172
MS	79%	1,130
NM	75%	748
LA	75%	1,922
WV	74%	750
CO	74%	2,103
IL	67%	5,239
ID	67%	590
NJ	64%	3,581
TX	61%	7,360
WA	58%	2,815
AR	57%	1,998
TN	55%	2,421
KS	55%	1,171
ND	53%	308
GA	53%	3,280
MO	52%	2,715
SD	50%	382
IA	47%	1,494
CA	46%	12,255
IN	43%	2,448
MI	38%	4,793
NV	33%	816
KY	32%	1,782
WY	32%	238
OR	30%	1,810
HI	25%	426
OK	22%	1,464
MD	14%	2,359
DC	14%	372
MT	8%	440
ME	5%	727

[TruthIsAll]

23. GRAPH: State Vote Deviations by Voting Method

[TruthIsAll]

24. CORRECTION TO POST #13 VOTING STATS

	State	Vote	Dev	Dev	CumDev	Pct	CumPct
	Bush Dev						
1	NY	7,277	-3.71%	-270	-270	12.1%	12%
2	FL	7,548	-3.02%	-228	-498	10.2%	22%
3	OH	5,599	-3.16%	-177	-675	7.9%	30%
4	PA	5,732	-3.04%	-174	-850	7.8%	38%
5	NC	3,487	-4.24%	-148	-998	6.6%	45%

6	IL	5,239	-1.79%	-94	-1,092	4.2%	49%
7	MA	2,875	-3.26%	-94	-1,185	4.2%	53%
8	MN	2,792	-2.74%	-76	-1,262	3.4%	56%
9	SC	1,600	-4.64%	-74	-1,336	3.3%	60%
10	AL	1,870	-3.90%	-73	-1,409	3.3%	63%

11	WI	2,968	-2.31%	-68	-1,477	3.1%	66%
12	VA	3,172	-2.13%	-68	-1,545	3.0%	69%
13	NJ	3,581	-1.63%	-58	-1,603	2.6%	72%
14	CT	1,551	-3.23%	-50	-1,653	2.2%	74%
15	GA	3,280	-1.35%	-44	-1,698	2.0%	76%

16	MI	4,793	-0.77%	-37	-1,735	1.7%	77%
17	WA	2,815	-1.25%	-35	-1,770	1.6%	79%
18	LA	1,922	-1.83%	-35	-1,805	1.6%	81%
19	IN	2,448	-1.42%	-35	-1,840	1.6%	82%
20	UT	905	-3.85%	-35	-1,875	1.6%	84%

21	MS	1,130	-2.81%	-32	-1,907	1.4%	85%
22	NH	672	-4.71%	-32	-1,938	1.4%	87%
23	CO	2,103	-1.47%	-31	-1,969	1.4%	88%
24	AR	1,998	-1.53%	-31	-2,000	1.4%	89%
25	MO	2,715	-1.12%	-30	-2,030	1.4%	91%

26	NE	767	-3.65%	-28	-2,058	1.2%	92%
27	AZ	1,043	-2.28%	-24	-2,082	1.1%	93%
28	KY	1,782	-1.01%	-18	-2,100	0.8%	94%
29	ID	590	-2.82%	-17	-2,117	0.7%	95%
30	RI	429	-3.42%	-15	-2,131	0.7%	95%

31	VT	305	-4.70%	-14	-2,146	0.6%	96%
32	IA	1,494	-0.94%	-14	-2,160	0.6%	96%
33	WV	750	-1.78%	-13	-2,173	0.6%	97%
34	NM	748	-1.70%	-13	-2,186	0.6%	98%
35	AK	312	-3.73%	-11	-2,197	0.5%	98%

36	DE	224	-4.67%	-10	-2,207	0.5%	99%
37	MD	2,359	-0.43%	-10	-2,218	0.5%	99%
38	OK	1,464	-0.57%	-8	-2,226	0.4%	99%
39	NV	816	-0.72%	-6	-2,232	0.3%	100%
40	WY	238	-1.21%	-3	-2,235	0.1%	100%

41	DC	372	-0.48%	-2	-2,236	0.1%	100%
42	MT	440	-0.30%	-1	-2,238	0.1%	100%
43	ME	727	-0.12%	-1	-2,239	0.0%	100%
	Kerry Dev						
44	HI	426	1.10%	5	5	-0.2%	1%
45	SD	382	1.29%	5	10	-0.2%	3%
46	ND	308	2.09%	6	16	-0.3%	5%
47	OR	1,810	0.91%	16	32	-0.7%	10%
48	KS	1,171	2.13%	25	57	-1.1%	18%
49	TN	2,421	1.31%	32	89	-1.4%	27%
50	TX	7,360	1.49%	110	199	-4.9%	61%
51	CA	12,255	1.04%	128	327	-5.7%	100%

[TruthIsAll]

33. National Exit Poll 13,047 Respondents

National Exit Poll 13,047 Respondents

Note the coincidence:
The average Kerry/Bush 2-party National Exit poll split
(2.85%)exactly equals the average State Exit poll MOE.			
The two right-most columns are Kerry/Bush 2-party% 

The odds are in millions (e.g. 1 in 2.30 mm)
                                                        Odds 
Categ	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Diff	   Prob.	1 in	Kerry	Bush	Diff
GENDER	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%	2.51%	4.34E-07	2.3mm	51.29%	48.71%	2.59%
EDU	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%	2.68%	7.50E-08	13	51.10%	48.90%	2.20%
INCOME	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%	2.61%	1.569E-07	6.4	51.66%	48.34%	3.32%
									
RACE	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%	2.87%	9.29E-09	107	51.56%	48.44%	3.12%
AGE	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%	2.56%	2.626E-07	3.8	51.20%	48.80%	2.39%
PARTYID	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%	2.96%	3.29E-09	303	51.48%	48.52%	2.97%
									
IDEOL	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%	2.58%	2.13E-07	4.6	50.87%	49.13%	1.73%
RELIG	48.19%	51.55%	1.19%	2.54%	3.21E-07	3.1	51.68%	48.32%	3.37%
MILIT	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%	3.11%	5.47E-10	1827	51.81%	48.19%	3.62%
									
DECIDED	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%	2.78%	2.54E-08	39	51.65%	48.35%	3.31%
ISSUES	47.92%	50.80%	1.28%	2.81%	1.82E-08	54	51.46%	48.54%	2.92%
REGION	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%	2.78%	2.54E-08	39	51.31%	48.69%	2.62%
									
AVERAGE	48.00%	50.81%	1.00%	2.73%	4.38E-08	23	51.42%	48.58%	2.85%

[Carolab]

2. Wow, that's a lot to overcome with the lame excuses they gave.

That's a lot of Bush voters who declined or were inhibited by weather or distance/age of pollsters, isn't it?

[AtLiberty]

9. I luv your efforts here, TruthIsAll, but would you please...

...provide summaries of your work in plain English for those of us who aren't good with rows of numbers?

Thanks.

[TruthIsAll]

11. I summarized the stats at the top. Here are heading descriptions

MOE = margin of error
Poll size = number of individuals sampled
2party vote = Kerry votes + Bush votes

Poll Dev = deviation between exit poll and vote as a %.
Vote Dev = deviation between exit poll and vote as a number

> MOE (YES): deviation exceeded MOE
> 2.0% (YES): deviation exceeded 2.0%
Flip Bush (YES): Kerry led Exit Poll, Bush won state
Dev. Bush (YES): deviation to Bush (any amount)

Vote: number of votes based on vote percentage
Poll: number of votes based on poll percentage

[ignatzmouse]

10. Excellent Study

It's interesting that Texas deviated toward Kerry. With all the excuses offered for the Kerry deviation, I wonder what could be their rationale for the opposite effect in Bush's "home" state? Oh wait, with the exception of a few counties, Texas has a paper trail of one kind or another -- just answered my own question...

[Igel]

21. But why would paper trail lead to deviation?

Under the assumptions made, you'd expect a lack of fraud to simply imply lack of deviation.

You'd get overstatement for Bush if Kerry voters declined to participate more than Bush voters did, or if Mitofsky assumed that Bush voters would decline to participate more than they actually did.

Mitofsky keeps leaving out any problem with his way of reconciling non-response.

[ignatzmouse]

25. Kerry Deviation States Have Paper Trails

No, the deviation toward Kerry is within the margin of error. It is normal and expected for there to be a range of deviation within the MOE. The point is that the overall statistics reveal an abnormal number of overall deviations toward Bush and an abnormal number of deviations toward Bush outside the MOE. It leads one to suspect fraud on that side of the board. Therefore, a deviation toward Kerry or a very small deviation in either direction presents important information about scenarios under which fraud would not be expected. Indeed, as I go down the list and compare it to voting technology, all of the deviations toward Kerry or small deviation states have paper trails in nearly all or all of their counties. The one exception is the mixed voting state of Tennessee (I don't know why that would prove the exception, though it warrants further inquiry).

[chorti]

31. tennessee did not have a great sample

Reading the Mitofsky report I see that their exit poll sample was constructed with a 2 to 3 percent bias toward Bush in Tennessee, so that would explain a little about why the "early" exit poll results would have Bush ahead of where he really was.

Plus, Tennessee had a large absentee ballot total and the exit polls were less reliable in those states. They tried to add absentee voter survey results to exit poll results in 13 states. In Tennessee the absentee ballots went very heavily to Bush, I am guessing 65-35, but don't have actual numbers. But I do know that the day-of voting went about 53-47 to Bush. So in order to get the final 57-43 margin, the absentee voting had to go very heavily to Bush. If there is fraud in Tennessee I would look at the absentee votes, not on the Nov. 2 voting machines.

[bush_is_wacko]

12. TIA, are you OK with me printing out this info to provide to people who

want it? I am not really good at statistical information, but there are a few people on my information list that might want this. I get enough of your gist to realize this is pretty CONCLUSIVE evidence for those mathematical, statistical people that speak the language.

[TruthIsAll]

15. Sure. Go ahead. Also the two "MORE STATS" posts

.

[bush_is_wacko]

16. Thanks! I have wanted to ask before now but wanted to wait until

the implications became more apparent after the release of some of this information. You have worked so hard on this stuff, I don't know how you do it!

[L. Coyote]

17. Which set of numbers are you using? There are so many.

Please state the source of all posted data, or supply a link to the source.

[TruthIsAll]

19. Simon Exit Poll download Nov. 3, 12:22am and final vote counts

1- Exit Poll (I have used these numbers from Day One):
Simon download Nov. 3 12:22 AM.

2- Final vote statistics.
Don't recall specifically. Google it.
It's probably on many different sites.

Careful: All numbers are based on 2-party vote.
You will see very slight differences.

[intensitymedia]

20. great stuff no doubt but we still need succinct explanations in english

to take this out to the masses. Maybe you could offer a brief paragraph for the statistically challenged that puts your points front and center.

We need to translate what the numbers say into potent rhetoric.

Thanks for great work - I always follow your posts closely, and save most for distribution.

peace

che


(author of Ted Koppel's words, quoted anonymously, which opened the January 19th Nightline show on the Ohio election, to wit:

"We are facing what appears to be a sinister, Stalin-esque conspiracy by all the networks and major newspapers to "shield" Americans from the potentially disturbing information that a neo-fascist tyranny has been imposed upon us by the treasonous and criminal theft of the 2004 election."

Thanks Ted!

We made the dog bark. Obviously the newswhores have been trolling DU to find out what's really going on as they lose control of both the story and their audience .... cdv

[anaxarchos]

22. I think the outline goes something like this...

The exit polls indicate that Kerry won both the electoral and popular vote in 2004. After in depth evaluation of the exit polls, it is very unlikely that those exit polls are fundamentally wrong:

1) The chances of the exit polls being in error through simple statistical anomalies is astronomically high. Almost all of the variations of vote count from exit polls favor Bush but they do so in a varied enough way not to be accounted for by any "innocent" explanation so far offered.

2) The methodology of the exit polls is basically sound. That methodology has been defended by NEP and there is enough empirical evidence to support that contention (TIA's "Mitofsky knows where to poll").

3) The execution of the exit polls has come under substantial attack but non of the rationales provided so far come even close to consistently accounting for the variation described above.

4) None of the extraneous issues (exit poll "design", etc.) come close to coherently negating the above.

5) No "secret", unreleased data sufficient to fundamentally challenge the above remains.

6) Therefore, the analysis of the exit polls indicate that the exit polls were correct (i.e. "Kerry Won") and the vote counts were wrong.

7) The exit poll results do not indicate a correlation to a single type of "election fraud" associated with a single type of voting machine, etc. but, rather, indicate a much more decentralized but consistent variation of the vote for Bush... in a phrase, a systemic bias for Bush.

Fill in the data....

[cilla4progress]

26. I like this...

I like this very much. Thank you. I think it could work.

[anaxarchos]

29. Thanks... Wanna give it a shot? n/t

[L. Coyote]

27. Per Freeman's numbers, these are the Kerry poll/vote error margins.

State		Diff.
AL		-3.402
AK		-2.590
AZ		-1.970
AR		-1.103
CA		0.566
CO		-0.771
CT		-2.413
DC		0.832
DE		-3.453
FL		-2.231
GA		-1.338
HI		1.053
ID		-2.143
IL		-1.567
IN		-1.104
IA		-0.156
KS		2.870
KY		-0.166
LA		-1.224
ME		0.709
MD		0.089
MA		-2.459
MI		0.234
MN		-1.756
MS		-3.094
MO		-0.673
MT		1.995
NE		-3.467
NV		-0.494
NH		-4.256
NJ		-1.573
NM		-0.664
NY		-3.957
NC		-2.925
ND		3.516
OH		-3.311
OK		-0.122
OR		1.719
PA		-2.990
RI		-2.168
SC		-3.825
SD		2.618
TN		2.220
TX		2.190
UT		-2.019
VT		-3.314
VA		-1.351
WA		0.118
WV		-1.053
WI		0.959
WY		-1.236

[TruthIsAll]

28. Let's see how Freeman got the deviations. I believe mine are correct.

I convert the exit poll and vote percentages to 2-party
totals.
Bush + Kerry = 100%. 

As the adjustment is proportional to the vote, the difference
is negligible, since only 1% went to 3rd parties.

I used the final vote numbers and the 12:22am Simon download
data.

I am quite sure my numbers are correct.


	Freeman TIA 	Diff
AK	-2.59	 -3.73	1.14
AL	-3.402 -3.90	0.50
AR	-1.103	-1.53	0.43
AZ	-1.97	 -2.28	0.31
CA	0.566	 1.04	-0.48
CO	-0.771	-1.47	0.70
CT	-2.413	-3.23	0.81
DC	0.832	 -0.48	1.31
DE	-3.453	-4.67	1.22
FL	-2.231	-3.02	0.79
GA	-1.338	-1.35	0.02
HI	1.053	  1.10	-0.05
IA	-0.156	-0.94	0.78
ID	-2.143	-2.82	0.68
IL	-1.567	-1.79	0.23
IN	-1.104	-1.42	0.32
KS	2.87	   2.13	0.74
KY	-0.166	-1.01	0.84
LA	-1.224	-1.83	0.61
MA	-2.459	-3.26	0.80
MD	0.089	 -0.43	0.52
ME	0.709	 -0.12	0.83
MI	0.234	 -0.77	1.01
MN	-1.756	-2.74	0.98
MO	-0.673	-1.12	0.45
MS	-3.094	-2.81	-0.29
MT	1.995	 -0.30	2.30
NC	-2.925	-4.24	1.32
ND	3.516	  2.09	1.43
NE	-3.467	-3.65	0.18
NH	-4.256	-4.71	0.45
NJ	-1.573	-1.63	0.06
NM	-0.664	-1.70	1.04
NV	-0.494	-0.72	0.22
NY	-3.957	-3.71	-0.24
OH	-3.311	-3.16	-0.15
OK	-0.122	-0.57	0.45
OR	1.719	  0.91	0.81
PA	-2.99	 -3.04	0.05
RI	-2.168	-3.42	1.25
SC	-3.825	-4.64	0.81
SD	2.618	  1.29	1.33
TN	2.22	  1.31	0.91
TX	2.19	  1.49	0.70
UT	-2.019	-3.85	1.83
VA	-1.351	-2.13	0.78
VT	-3.314	-4.70	1.38
WA	0.118	 -1.25	1.37
WI	0.959	 -2.31	3.27
WV	-1.053	-1.78	0.73
WY	-1.23	 -1.21	-0.02

AVG    -0.99	-1.73	0.73

[NationalEnquirer]

30. Great, thanks for the numbers.

It makes a tiny bit more sense for the statistically challenged like myself.

[emcguffie]

32. Must be someone who would report

Maybe Moyers, although he retired. Maybe Frontline would do a special. Somebody in public television.

Of course, that's not the same at all as having it on the networks or other cable channels, but it would be a start.